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Viewing report
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2008 Outlook: Online Political Advertising
Borrell Associates Inc., Jan 2008
With a presidential election year upon us, political advertising once again promises to be an opportunity category for ad spending. However, not in the way most people think. The key trend-driving ad spending in the 2008 presidential campaign season is the number of candidates running for President. With no incumbent running for either party, the number of candidates in the primary process is more than double what it was in 2004. Republicans, Democrats and Independents are all vying for a place on the ballot. In addition, that, of course, is driving a great deal of political advertising – $4.8 billion this year.
Broadcast television, cornering nearly 60 percent of total political spending, will still be the undisputed champion in the political advertising space and may see some follow-along ad dollars from online combo buys from the campaigns. With 95 percent penetration, TV is still the fastest way to reach the broadest audience of registered voters.
However, there will be no corresponding bonanza for online media. We forecast online political ad spending will total $20 million in 2008, less than one-half of one percent of all political advertising. It is an odd phenomenon, especially given that online ads account for more than nine percent of total U.S. advertising.
Web sites will certainly play a role in the campaign process, but candidates are likely to spend most of their online budgets not on traditional display or video ads, but rather on search advertising. In fact, half that $20 million that we are forecasting this year will wind up in the hands of Google, Yahoo, and sites that are delivering their contextual advertising messages.
While the Internet is becoming more and more accessible, the 55+ demographic is still the hardest age group for the Internet to reach. It is also this group where a large percentage of likely voters reside, especially in some of the key primary states. Candidates will not abandon traditional media
In addition, risk losing this significant base of loyal voters.
While candidates will likely spend most of their money on broadcast TV, local stations should look at this as an opportunity to funnel some of that spending into multi-media packages. By utilizing their own Web sites – with online video and other forms of advertising – they can re-direct voters to a candidates’ Web site, where the campaign is investing many volunteer hours and marketing effort, if not advertising dollars.
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