Third-Gen Thin-Film Solar Technologies: Forecasting the Future of Dye-Sensitized and Organic PV
Greentech Media, Inc, October 2009, Pages +: 153
Third-generation thin-film solar devices are beginning to emerge in the marketplace after approximately 20 years of research and development, due to the insight of leading material developers such as Konarka and Plextronics in the organic photovoltaics (OPV) domain, and Dyesol, EPFL, G24i, Mitsubishi and Peccell on the dye-sensitized cells (DSC) front. Both DSC and OPV technologies lag far behind on the efficiency curve when compared to conventional solar (i.e., greater than 20 percent efficiency), so they will likely succeed in markets where their low cost, substrate flexibility, and ability to perform in dim or variable lighting conditions provide them with a significant competitive advantage. DSC will target larger area BIPV applications while OPV will find its application in lower power consumer applications.
The success of penetrating existing and new PV markets will depend on many variables, including: (1) costs in $/Wp, as well as $/m2 of product and power availability (kWh/Wp/annum); (2) the technical and environmental profile of each newly introduced technology; (3) added value for the consumer and architects; and (4) ease of production and the scale at which a production plant becomes economically feasible.
At this stage, third-generation PV is not at a price point to be able to compete directly with silicon-based cells or the more exotic thin-film technologies, but it will nevertheless play a significant energy role in applications and markets that conventional solar materials will never be able to penetrate. These include low-power consumer electronics, outdoor recreational applications, and BIPV applications.
One of the greatest appeals of third-generation thin-film solar cells is that they can be manufactured using solution-based, low-temperature roll-to-roll manufacturing methods, incorporating conventional printing techniques on flexible substrates, which presents the opportunity for a more economical alternative for solar cells within the next few years. Such new low-cost third-generation solar cells will offer larger surface areas with enhanced performance. However, to enable long-term use of DSC and OPV in conventional electricity generation, e.g., in grid-connected or stand-alone rooftop applications, significant progress in cell efficiency, stability, and lifetime are needed.
With respect to lifetime, there is much discussion going on as to whether the technologies need to have the same lifetime as silicon-based PV (20+ years) for economical rooftop use, or whether shorter lifetimes of around five years, especially for very low-cost modules, could be deemed acceptable (this is, in fact, the direction that Konarka and SKYShades are taking). However, there is some evidence to suggest that for mass production for top grid-connected and building-integrated solar cells, optimal lifetime duration should be at least 20 years, since investors are less likely to support a technology with low efficiency and lifetime.
Key Elements of the Report:
- Roadmaps for the development of Third-Generation Solar Technology
- Materials assessment for Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells, including Dye Sensitizers, Electrolytes, Cathode Materials and others
- Manufacturing assessment, including printing and solution techniques, vacuum and other deposition techniques, cost structures and production volume outlook
- Market Segmentation analysis, from consumer to BIPV
- Supplier profiles, including: 3G Solar, Agfa-Materials, BASF, Creavis, Dyesol, Eikos, Fujikura, G24 Innovations, HC Starck, Heliatek, Isovolta Group, Merck, Panasonic Electric Works, Peccell Technologies, Plextronics, Polyera Corporation, Sharp Solar, Solar Print, Solaris, Solaronix SA, Sony Corp, Vitex Systems
In This Report:
- DSC and OPV material developers and suppliers
- DSC and OPV cell developers and suppliers
- Thin-film solar cell developers and suppliers
- Conventional solar cell developers and suppliers
- Consumer electronics and BIPV developers and suppliers
DSC Technology:
- The goal for DSC device efficiency is to improve the best results from 11 percent in 2009 to 16 percent by 2020. This will come about by using optimized dyes with better absorption of red and infrared light, in addition to making a better match between the dye HOMO and the redox system. Module efficiency is always significantly lower than that which is obtained in the ideal laboratory environment, and the goal for modules is expected to reach 10 percent efficiency by 2012.
- The best solar performance in terms of efficiency and long-term stability has been achieved with inorganic dyes, such as ruthenium and osmium polypyridyl complexes, however the high cost and supply issues associated with these dyes, has led to the use of some novel organic dye sensitizing materials with comparable efficiencies, such as porphyrins and carbazole dyes.
- The use of ionic liquids, non-corrosive electrolytes, gel electrolytes, and hole conducting materials has overcome the volatility and leakage issues associated with the use of liquid electrolytes.
- At Dyesol – a tandem cell realized ~12 percent efficiency in February 2009 (uncertified) in average light conditions, utilizing a standard high purity B2 dye and a novel near infra-red dye. The significance of this achievement is that the cells are of industrial size (1cm2) and manufactured using standard materials. Sharp Corporation reported an integrated DSC W-contact module, which achieved a high active area of 85 percent by elimination of the interconnection between the neighboring cells and achieved an efficiency of 8.2 percent (25.45 cm2), which is a new record for a DSC submodule.
- Dyesol, Fujikura, Panasonic and Sony are at the forefront of DSC technology developments, utilizing novel materials comprising mixed organic dye systems, various novel solid/gel electrolytes and module designs, which show minimal decomposition over extended times of up to 12 years.
- G24i plans to commercialize DSC for consumer electronic applications in 2009 and 3G Solar in 2010. Corus Colors is working with Dyesol to produce steel coated DSC panels for rooftop applications in late 2010.
OPV Technology:
- OPV efficiencies have been increasing at about 1 percent per year for the past few years, and the goal is to improve device efficiency to 14 percent for cells and 10 percent for modules by 2020.
- For device stability, the goal is to increase cell lifetime (stability) from 5 percent for 2,000 hours to 10 percent per 10,000 hours by 2020. At the module level, this translates to more than five years of lifetime in 2012 and almost three times this in 2020 (13 years).
- On the materials front, the best cell efficiencies for OPV devices are being achieved using upon low-band gap polymers, such as PTB1 with less than 6.7 percent by Solarmer, and small molecules, such as low band gap oligothiophene-based absorbers (DCV1T to DCV7T) with 5.5 percent / 6.07 percent for tandem cells by Heliatek
- Plextronics has demonstrated large area OPV modules (232 cm2 total area), with a realized efficiency of 2.3 percent active area efficiency.
- Konarka Technologies is now pushing ahead with the commercialization of its OPV Power Plastic material, initially for lower power consumer electronic applications during 2010 using several partners – including Cymbet Corporation, Noon Bags and SkyShades.
- Plextronics with its joint venture partner in South Korea – Korea Parts & Fasteners, set up KNP Energy to build solar panels in South Korea and tap into the well-funded and growing market
I Executive Summary
I.I Evolution Of Third-Generation Thin-Film Solar Applications And Markets
I.Ii Consumer Electronics
I.Iii Outdoor Recreational Applications
I.Iv Bipv
I.V Power Generation
I.Vi Evolution Of Third-Generation Thin-Film Solar Materials And Technologies
I.Vii Dsc
I.Viii Opv
I.Ix Dsc Suppliers
I.X Opv Suppliers
I.Xi Investment Trends
I.Xii Government Investment
I.Xiii Vc And Other Private Investment
I.Xiv Summary Of Production Volumes And Cost Structure
1 Introduction
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Scope
1.3 Methodology
2 Materials And Technologies
2.1 Introduction
2.1.1 Benefi Ts Of Third-Generation Thin-Film Solar Technologies
2.1.2 Roadmaps For The Development Of Third-Generation Solar Technology
2.1.3 Opv Technology
2.2 Materials For Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells
2.2.1 Dye Sensitizers
2.2.2 Electrolytes
2.2.3 Cathode Materials
2.2.4 Other Materials
2.3 Materials For Organic Photovoltaic Cells
2.3.1 Electrode Materials
2.3.2 Acceptor Materials (N-Type Polymers)
2.3.3 Donor Materials (P-Type Polymers And Small Molecules)
2.3.4 Encapsulation And Barrier Coating Materials
2.4 Device Architectures
2.4.1 Dsc Architectures
2.4.2 Opv Architectures
2.5 Manufacturing And Deposition Techniques
2.5.1 Printing And Solution Techniques
2.5.2 Vacuum And Other Deposition Techniques
3 Markets And Applications
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Market Segments
3.2.1 Consumer Electronics
3.2.2 Outdoor Recreational Applications
3.2.3 Solar In Buildings - Bipv
3.2.4 Power Generation
3.3 Current Market Activities
3.3.1 Consumer Electronics
3.3.2 Outdoor Recreational Applications
3.3.3 Bipv
3.3.4 Grid
3.4 Market Strategies
4 Production Volumes And Cost Structure
4.1 Production Volumes
4.1.1 Dsc
4.1.2 Opv
4.2 Cost Structure
4.2.1 Dsc Cost Breakdown
4.2.2 Opv Cost Breakdown
5 Key Third-Generation Thin-Film Solar Material And Cell Supplier Profiles
5.1 Key Material Developers And Suppliers
5.2 Key Dsc Players
5.2.1 Commercial Suppliers
5.2.2 Research Organizations
5.3 Key Opv Players
5.3.1 Commercial Developers/Suppliers
5.3.2 Research Organizations
Appendix 1 Organizations Promoting Dsc And Opv Developments (Late 2008–2009)
Appendix 2 Methodology For Standardizing Efficiencies
Abbreviations And Definitions
LIST OF FIGURES:
Figure 2-1: Effi ciency Roadmap for Third-Generation Thin-Film Solar Technologies (1990–2009)
Figure 2-2: Energy Payback Comparison of Solar Technologies
Figure 2-3: Colorful and see-through cells
Figure 2-4: Organic Dyes are Catching Up with Inorganic Dyes
Figure 2-5: High Effi ciency Ionic Liquids for Solid State DSCs
Figure 2-6: Back Contact Type of DSC
Figure 2-7: Chemical Structure of PTB
Figure 2-8: Chemical Structures of Poly(2,7-Carbazole) Derivatives
Figure 2-9: How Heliatek’s P- I- N Tandem Cell Works
Figure 2-10: Vitex Barix Barrier Film
Figure 2-11: Structure and Operating Principle of a DSC
Figure 2-12: Square Size Ball Grid DSC
Figure 2-13: Schematic of a Bulk Heterojunction OPV Cell
Figure 2-14: Structure of a Tandem OPV Cell
Figure 2-15: DSC Production Flow - Basic Concept for R2R facility
Figure 2-16: Coating Cost for Roll-to-Roll Tool
Figure 3-1: DSC Powered Solar Clocks
Figure 3-2: Hana-Akari Lanterns
Figure 3-3: Hyundai’s BLUE-WILL Concept Car Featuring a DSC Roof
Figure 3-4: BIPV Applications
Figure 3-5: Industrial Buildings
Figure 4-1: DSC Commercialization in Korea – Phase 1
Figure 4-2: Brabec’s Triangle for Solar Module Requirements
Figure 4-3: Competitiveness between electricity generating cost for PV and utility prices
Figure 4-4: Dye Price versus Volume
Figure 4-5: OPV Predicted to Reach Lowest Cost Levels
Figure 5-1: Dyesol’s Business Model
Figure 5-2: Largest DSC Plastic Module
Figure 5-3: Konarka’s Power Plastic Layers
Figure 5-4: Largest OPV Module
LIST OF TABLES:
Table I-1: Comparison of Third-Generation Thin-Film Solar Technologies
Table I-2: DSC Technology Champions
Table I-3: OPV Technology Champions
Table I-4: Third-Generation Thin-Film Solar Technology Production Volumes
Table I-5: Third-Generation Thin-Film Solar Technology Cost Road Maps
Table 2-1: Comparison of Third-Generation Thin-Film Solar Technologies
Table 2-2: Proposed DSC Roadmap Goals
Table 2-3: Proposed OPV Roadmap Goals
Table 2-4: Key Materials Used in DSC cells
Table 2-5: Comparison of DSC Sensitizers
Table 2-6: Commercial Ruthenium Dyes
Table 2-7: DSC Developments using Inorganic Dyes
Table 2-8: DSC Developments using Organic Dyes
Table 2-9: Key Materials Used in OPV cells
Table 2-10: Transparent Conducting Oxides Used in OPV Devices
Table 2-11: Transparent Conductive Metal Grid Electrode Comparison
Table 2-12: Carbon Nanotubes
Table 2-13: Common n-type Acceptor Polymers used in OPV Cells
Table 2-14: Common p-type Donor Polymer Used in OPV Cells
Table 2-15: Small Molecule-Based OPV Cells
Table 2-16: Water Vapor and Oxygen Transmission Rates for Various Materials
Table 2-17: DSC Module Designs under Investigation
Table 2-18: Characteristic Properties of Printing Methods Used for Third-Generation Thin-Film Solar Cells
Table 3-1: Application Roadmap for Third-Generation Thin-Film Solar Technology
Table 3-2: Selected Third-Generation Thin-Film Solar Consumer Electronic Applications
Table 3-3: Towards the Solar Car - Materials and Process Changes
Table 3-4: Noon Solar Panel Specifi cations
Table 3-5: Comparison of ColorSol and Schott Solar Semitransparent PV Windows Specs
Table 3-6: Estimated Solar Roofi ng Installations
Table 3-7: Self-Powered Electrochromic Glazing
Table 3-8: European Feed-In Tariffs
Table 4-1: Company Provided DSC Production Volumes
Table 4-2: G24i Production Estimates
Table 4-3: Corus Production Estimates
Table 4-4: Company Provided OPV Production Volumes
Table 4-5: Company Provided DSC Cost Road Maps
Table 4-6: DSC Materials - Today’s Cost Breakdown
Table 4-7: Company Provided OPV Cost Road Maps
Table 5-1: Third-Generation Solar Material Developers and Suppliers
Table 5-2: Agfa’s Conductive ORGACON Coatings
Table 5-3: H.C. Starck’s Clevios Material Properties
Table 5-4: Isovolta’s Encapsulation Material Properties
Table 5-5: Polyera’s OPV Materials
Table 5-6: Vitex Products
Table 5-7: Selected DSC Developers/Suppliers
Table 5-8: 3G Solar’s DSC Specs for 2010
Table 5-9: Dyesol Development Partnerships
Table 5-10: G24i’s Product Offerings
Table 5-11: Peccell’s DSC Material Specs
Table 5-12: Selected Research Organizations Developing DSC Technology
Table 5-13: Selected OPV Technology Developers/Suppliers
Table 5-14: Heliatek’s Polymer OPV Specs
Table 5-15: Konarka Power Plastic Standard KT Panels
Table 5-16: Recent Konarka Partnerships
Table 5-17: Merck KGaA’s OPV Material Offerings
Table 5-18: Plextronics – Current OPV Champions
Table 5-19: Plextronics Plexcore PV Ink Systems
Table 5-20: Solarmer’s OPV Developments by 2010
Table 5-21: Key Research Organizations Developing OPV Technology
Table 5-22: IMEC’s European OPV Projects
- 3G Solar
- Agfa-Materials
- BASF
- Creavis
- Dyesol
- Eikos
- Fujikura
- G24 Innovations
- HC Starck
- Heliatek
- Isovolta Group
- Merck
- Panasonic Electric Works
- Peccell Technologies
- Plextronics
- Polyera Corporation
- Sharp Solar
- Solar Print
- Solaris
- Solaronix SA
- Sony Corp
- Vitex Systems
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