Expect Mild Slowdown as Sustainability, Multipolarity, Digitalization, and Fiscal Prudence Take Center Stage
Despite the global economy outperforming expectations and avoiding a recession in 2023, the publisher expects a mild growth slowdown in 2024 as tight monetary conditions, diminishing consumer confidence, weak trade prospects, and subdued housing markets in key regions weigh on momentum.
However, with policymakers managing to put inflation on a more controlled path in 2023, the narrative in 2024 will start to shift toward the reversal of synchronized rate hikes and the revival of growth and investment, particularly in advanced economies. Even as countries continue to face a volatile geopolitical environment and persistent regional divergences in 2024, it will be equally important for organizations to prepare for the tailwinds that will emerge from a pullback in interest rate hikes, receding price pressures, and steady policy support for growth industries such as transport and infrastructure, green energy, semiconductors, and automotive.
This 2024 macroeconomic thought leadership provides key insights on global and regional economic scenarios through growth trajectory analysis and regional comparisons. It provides foresight for businesses and policymakers on top global predictions covering commodity prices, labor markets, critical minerals supply chains, and the global interest rate environment.
Based on an in-depth analysis of megatrends and regional policy outlook, the publisher has detailed key macroeconomic growth opportunities for businesses in 2024. This deliverable defines the context of these opportunities and provides a detailed analysis of them that organizations should leverage to achieve resilient growth.
Research Highlights
Key Topics Covered:
- 2024 GDP Growth Predictions for the Global Economy and Key Advanced and Emerging Economies
- Top Global Predictions for 2024
- Top Regional Predictions for 2024
- Global Economic Visioning Scenarios
- Emerging Macroeconomic Growth Opportunities
Table of Contents
Top Growth Opportunities for 2024
- Strategic Imperatives
- Top 10 Growth Opportunities
- Top 10 Trends for 2024
- Trend 1: Global GDP Growth Mild Global Growth Slowdown from 3.0% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 as Key Economies Lose Momentum
- Growth Opportunity 1: Global GDP Growth India and ASEAN to Remain Hotbeds for Expansion with Relatively High GDP Growth
- Trend 2: Inflation and Interest Rates Headline Inflation to Continue Decline; H2 2024 to Shift Toward Rate Cuts for Advanced Economies
- Growth Opportunity 2: Inflation and Interest Rates Combination of Falling Inflation and Rate Cuts Under Baseline Scenario to Drive Discretionary Expenses
- Trend 3: Currency Trajectory Rate Cuts to Cap Upside Dollar Gains in H2; Weak Regional Growth to Weigh on EUR; EM Currencies to Get Boost from Q3 2024 Onwards
- Growth Opportunity 3: Currency Trajectory Strong Dollar in H1 2024 to Boost US Travel; Weaker Emerging Market Currencies to Benefit Exporters in H2
- Trend 4: Labor Market Moderate Unemployment Uptick; Positive Expectations Over Market Sentiment to Support Labor Hoarding
- Growth Opportunity 4: Labor Market Cross-country Migration to Create Vocational Skill Development Opportunities; Gig Marketplace to Gain Prominence
- Trend 5: Oil MarketsQ1 2024 OPEC+ Oil Production Cuts; Brent Prices to Average $83-$85/Barrel
- Growth Opportunity 5: Oil Markets GCC Oil Production Cuts to Spur Non-oil Diversification Movement
- Trend 6: Critical Minerals Supplies Need for Economic Resiliency to Bolster Cross-border and Cross-industry Partnerships within Critical Minerals Supply Chains
- Growth Opportunity 6: Critical Minerals Supplies Electric Mobility, Semiconductors, and Green Industries to be Key Benefactors of a Growing Critical Minerals Market
- Trend 7: North America Economic Slowdown Amidst Discretionary Spending Pullback and Elevated Interest Rates in North America
- Growth Opportunity 7: North America Fiscal Support in the US to Provide Sizable Investment Opportunities in Manufacturing and Infrastructure
- Trend 8: Western Europe Moderate Growth Pick-up in Western Europe as Inflation Headwinds Ease Gradually; Rebuilding Fiscal Buffers to take Precedence
- Growth Opportunity 8: Western Europe Services-led Economic Recovery to Bolster Opportunities in Healthcare, Green Energy, and Tourism in Western Europe
- Trend 9: The Middle East Non-oil Growth Driven by Economic Diversification to Limit the Pullback Caused by a Slowdown in Global Oil Markets within the Middle East
- Growth Opportunity 9: The Middle East Stabilizing Credit Conditions and Inflation to Support Investment Inflows Across the Middle East
- Trend 10: Asia Emerging Economies to Drive Growth Momentum in Asia; Fiscal Measures to Support Chinese Economic Recovery
- Growth Opportunity 10: Asia Building of Multi-industry Manufacturing Capabilities to Bolster Export Potential and Lead to Sustained Economic Momentum in Asia
- List of Countries and Territories, 2024
- Next Steps
- Legal Disclaimer
