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Greece Oil and Gas Report Q3 2009
Business Monitor International, July 2009, Pages: 58
Greece Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Greece's oil and gas industry
The latest Greece Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.49% of Developed European regional oil demand by 2013, while making no appreciable contribution to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption reached an estimated 13.75mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2008. It is set to rise to around 13.88mn b/d by 2013. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.97mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 5.06mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.77mn b/d by 2013. Oil imports are growing steadily, because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2008, net crude imports were an estimated 8.70mn b/d. By 2013, they are expected to have reached 10.11mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK becoming a net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2008 consumed an estimated 440bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 490bcm targeted for 2013, representing 11.2% growth. Production of an estimated 269bcm in 2007 should rise to 279bcm in 2013, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2008 level of 171bcm to some 211bcm by the end of the period. The Greek share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 0.99%, while it makes no meaningful contribution to production. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 1.22%.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q109 was an estimated US$45.78 per barrel (bbl), down 13% from the US$52.51/bbl recorded during the previous three months. During the second quarter, there has been little change to our view of oil market developments. BMI is forecasting an average OPEC basket price of US$51.30/bbl, with the March gains being retained in April, before further recovery to a possible US$57.00 is seen by June. For 2009, we are still assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52.00/bbl (-45% year-on-year). The BMI full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$53.73, WTI averaging US$54.90/bbl and Urals at US$52.66 for 2009.
For the whole of 2009, the BMI assumption for gasoline is an average US$56.89/bbl, with the price peaking at a forecast monthly average of US$64.75 in December 2009. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 44.1%. For gasoil in 2009, the BMI forecast is for an average price of US$69.35/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$94.48/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 42.8% fall from the 2008 level. The monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$53.75 in February to US$96.76/bbl in December, proving an annual level of US$71.78/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008.
Greek real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI to fall by 3.5% in 2009, compared with growth of 2.9% in 2008. We are now assuming an average 1.54% growth in 2009-2013. While there is still some limited scope for medium- to long-term growth in domestic oil production, there is considerable uncertainty over the scale and the timing of new field development. Meanwhile, the country’s oil consumption is rising relatively fast (beyond 2009 averaging 2.0% per annum) and is expected to reach 485,000b/d in 2013. By 2013, our estimates suggest gas consumption of at least 6.0bcm, all of which will be imported.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Greek oil and gas liquids consumption of 16.04%, with volumes rising steadily from an estimated 450,000b/d in 2008 to 522,000b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Production is set to rise from just 1,500b/d to a potential peak of 5,000b/d in 2011/12, before easing to 3,000b/d by 2017/2018. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2008 level of 4.4bcm to 7.6bcm by 2018, relying on pipeline and LNG imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
The long-term political risk assessment for Greece is 82.3, which is above Italy, Spain and Belgium in the BMI universe of Developed Markets countries. The score is below the Developed Markets average of 85.8. The long-term economic risk rating of 64.9 is the lowest in developed Europe. The Developed Markets average is 69.3. Greece has a partly privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a small upstream oil and gas segment, featuring participation by domestic companies and foreign exploration companies. Downstream oil is dominated by partly state-owned Hellenic Petroleum (HP), but also features international oil company (IOC) involvement. The gas and power sectors are still heavily state-influenced.
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