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China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2009
Business Monitor International, July 2009, Pages: 102
The China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on China's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
For the Q309 update of the China Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare report, we have maintained our topline forecast for medicine expenditure in the world’s most populous country, as no new sales figures have emerged and the country’s macroeconomic projections have remained static. However, we have downgraded our valuation of the patented product sector. The author expects combined sales of patented products, generic drugs and over-the-counter (OTC) medicines in China to reach a value of US$74.14bn by 2013. This represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.92%.
Since the previous update of this report, China has risen two places in the author’s Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings. The country is now the fourth most attractive market to multinational drugmakers in Asia Pacific region, ahead of Hong Kong and behind South Korea. China’s score of 57.4 is well above the regional average and we expect the country to supplant the leader, Japan, before 2013. China scores reasonably well for Pharmaceutical Market and Market Risks, but is let down by Country Structure and Country Risks.
In its 2009 Special 301 Report, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) and the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) asked for China to remain under Section 306 monitoring, which looks for compliance with an agreement designed to resolve a former 301 dispute. On accession to the WTO in 2001, China revised its laws to comply with the Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) agreement, in particular protecting product safety and efficacy data submitted during a regulatory application. However, unpublished research has shown that soon after a US-made new chemical entity is launched in China, a locally-made copy is approved. Leaks of commercially-sensitive information are frequent.
Other concerns voiced by PhRMA include: widespread proliferation of counterfeit medicines; a small percentage of GDP directed to healthcare; dispensing of pharmaceuticals by prescribers; extreme markups made by hospitals on medicine sales; an out-of-date reimbursement list (last revised in 2004); and a lengthy clinical trial application procedure.
Generic drugs are the mainstay of China’s pharmaceutical industry. Due to previously lax intellectual property (IP) laws, many medicines that enjoyed exclusivity in developed states were copied by local manufacturers. This means that many patients in China had access to the latest pharmaceuticals.
However, it discouraged investment by multinational drugmakers. This went beyond not launching recently developed drugs, but also into research and manufacturing.
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