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Hong Kong Retail Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, Aug 2009, Pages: 47
The Hong Kong Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hong Kong's retail industry
The Q409 Hong Kong Retail report predicts that total retail sales for the Chinese special administrative region (SAR) will grow from just over US$34bn in 2008 to nearly US$49bn by 2013. Rising disposable incomes and a strong tourism industry are key factors behind the forecast growth. Hong Kong’s nominal GDP was US$215bn in 2008. We forecast average annual GDP growth of 2.8% to 2013. With the population increasing by only 4.3% over this period, GDP per capita is predicted to rise from US$30,732 (the second-highest in Asia) in 2008 to US$35,195 by 2013. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$18,728 in 2008 to US$25,700 by 2013.
According to Invest Hong Kong, the SAR welcomed more than 29.5mn tourists in 2008, including nearly 17mn from mainland China – a rise of 4.7% over 2007. Total expenditure by tourists amounted to HKD159bn (US$20bn) in 2008, more than twice the growth in tourist numbers. The further liberalisation measures facilitating visits by residents from mainland China announced in December 2008 are likely to boost these figures further.
Census and Statistics Department (CSD) retail sales by outlets figures suggest that the two leading retail sub-sectors in Hong Kong, apart from food and drink, are jewellery, watches, etc, with estimated sales of US$5.36bn in 2008; and clothing and footwear, with estimated sales of US$4.50bn. The report forecasts that sales of jewellery and watches could grow by more than 42% to US$7.62bn by 2013, reflecting the high disposable income of Hong Kong consumers; and that sales of clothing and footwear should also increase substantially, to US$6.40bn by the end of the forecast period. CSD data suggest furniture and furnishings sales of US$0.79bn in 2008, which we predict will increase to US$1.12bn over the period.
The reports statistics, meanwhile, put consumer electronic sales through dedicated outlets at US$3.58bn in 2008. These are forecast to rise to US$4.70bn by 2013. We estimate that over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales in Hong Kong will grow by more than 45%, to US$0.33bn, by 2013, albeit from a low base of US$0.23bn. Autos sales will decline by nearly 17%, from US$1.36bn in 2008 to US$1.13bn in 2013.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2008 were an estimated US$1.54trn. China and India alone in 2008 accounted for almost 93% of regional retail sales, a share they are expected to maintain throughout the forecast period. The report forecasts that regional retail sales will grow by 70% between 2008 and 2013, or an annual average 14%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by Indonesia and Malaysia. For Hong Kong, the estimated 2008 market share of 1.7% is expected to ease to 1.4% by 2013.
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