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United States Oil and Gas Report Q3 2009
Business Monitor International, Aug 2009, Pages: 85
United States Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United States' oil and gas industry.
The latest US Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 89.56% of North American regional oil demand by 2013, while contributing 65.75% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption reached an estimated 21.78mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2008. It is set to ease to around 21.66mn b/d by 2013. North American regional oil production in 2008 averaged an estimated 10.19mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.95mn b/d by 2013.
As regards natural gas, North America in 2008 consumed an estimated 755bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 807bcm targeted for 2013, representing 6.9% growth. Production of an estimated 731bcm in 2008 should ease to 726bcm in 2013, which implies net imports rising to some 81bcm by the end of the period. The US share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 87.37%, while it provided 74.69% of production. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 87.21%, with 74.38% of production. In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q109 was an estimated US$45.78 per barrel (bbl), down 13% from the US$52.51/bbl recorded during the previous three months. During the second quarter, there has been little change to our view of oil market developments. The report is forecasting an average OPEC basket price of US$51.30/bbl, with the March gains being retained in April, before further recovery to a possible US$57.00 is seen by June. For 2009, we are still assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52.00/bbl (-45% year-on-year). The full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$53.73, WTI averaging US$54.90/bbl and Urals at US$52.66 for 2009.
For the whole of 2009, the assumption for gasoline is an average US$56.89/bbl, with the price peaking at a forecast monthly average of US$64.75 in December 2009. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 44.1%. For gasoil in 2009, the forecast is for an average price of US$69.35/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$94.48/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 42.8% fall from the 2008 level. The monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$53.75 in February to US$96.76/bbl in December, proving an annual level of US$71.78/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008.
US real GDP is now forecast to fall by 3.3% in 2009, compared with growth of 1.1% in 2008. We are assuming an average annual 1.4% growth in 2009-13. Average US oil and liquids production is estimated at 7.25mn b/d in 2009. By 2013, we are forecasting output of 7.20mn b/d. Our estimate for 2009 US oil demand is 18.90mn b/d, thanks to the impact of the economic slowdown on consumption. We now see US oil use hitting 19.40mn b/d by 2013. This would require crude imports of 12.20mn b/d. Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting unchanged US oil production, with output peaking at 7.40mn b/d in 2011. Given oil consumption forecast to fall by 7.66%, imports ease from an estimated 12.60mn b/d in 2008 to 12.16mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should rise from the estimated 2008 level of 546bcm to 560bcm in 2018. Demand is forecast to rise from 659bcm to 735bcm, requiring net imports rising to a 2016 peak of 200bcm, in the form of pipeline volumes and LNG. Details of 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Our long-term political rating is 85.2, well above the global average of 63.9, and just below the Developed Markets average of 85.8. It is well beneath Canada’s 94.3. Our long-term economic rating is 69.9, which compares with a global average of 54.1 and the Developed Markets average of 69.3. The score puts the US alongside Canada, also scoring 69.9. The US is a de-regulated, highly competitive and relatively mature energy market. There are numerous international and domestic companies operating at all levels, from exploration, through pipelines, refining and retailing. The market is dominated by US based organisations, with Britain’s BP the biggest foreign investor, followed by Royal Dutch Shell.
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