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Nigeria - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts
Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd., Sep 2009, Pages: 116


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Nigeria has overtaken South Africa to become the continent’s largest mobile market with over 65 million subscribers, and yet market penetration stood at only around 45% in mid-2009. Far reaching regulatory reform has led to hundreds of companies providing virtually all kinds of telecom and value-added services in an independently regulated market. Billions of US$ are being invested into network infrastructure each year.

Competition has increased under a new unified licensing regime, and declining average revenue per user levels are forcing the operators to streamline their businesses, introduce new services and transform themselves into converged broadband service providers in order to maintain market share.

Significant consolidation has already occurred in Nigeria’s Internet and broadband sector, from over 400 ISPs two years ago to around 150. Powerful new players from the fixed-wireless and mobile network operator camps have entered the market with third generation mobile and advanced wireless broadband services such as WiMAX. Mergers and acquisitions, which have attracted record prices in recent years, are expected to continue.

The arrival of two new international submarine fibre optic cables in 2009 will break the current monopoly in this sub-sector and revolutionise the market by reducing the cost of bandwidth by up to 90%. Several national fibre backbone networks are being rolled out to transport this bandwidth to the end-users. However, due to the vast expanse of the country and decades of neglect of infrastructure prior to market liberalisation, satellite-based services will continue to play an important role in Nigeria’s telecoms sector.

After failing three times in the past, privatisation of the incumbent national telco Nitel is scheduled to be finally completed in 2009. The government is looking for a new strategic investor and new business models to turn the ailing company around.

Key Highlights:

- Forecasts for fixed-line, mobile and Internet markets to 2010 and 2015;

- CDMA-based 3G networks are outpacing their GSM rivals with triple digit growth rates;

- Profiles of major players, including financial results;

- ARPU is expected to continue falling before turning around on the back of broadband services;

- Competition in international fibre bandwidth set to arrive in 2009 will revolutionise the market;

- IP-based next-generation networks are enabling converged voice, data and video services;

- Sub-Saharan Africa’s first Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH) network rollout;

- Privatisation of Nitel scheduled for 2009 after three unsuccessful attempts in the past.


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