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Italy Agribusiness Report Q1 2009
Business Monitor International, Nov 2008, Pages: 48
Italy Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Italy's agribusiness service.
Italy has a strong agricultural tradition and is the fifth largest exporter of agri-food products in the world. In this new Italy Agribusiness Report for Q109, we examine how the industry has fared through the turbulent times of rapidly rising agricultural prices and input costs over the last two years and what challenges it will face moving into the next decade.
We expect moderate growth to 2012 across most of the sectors we forecast. Poultry and pork production will grow by 9.3% and 7.3%, respectively, although beef production will fall by 2.73%. The growth in poultry and pork production will be driven by domestic demand as Italy is now a net importer of both meats.
We do not see any expansion in milk production to 2012, although this could change depending on what decision is taken on EU milk quotas, which are due to expire in 2015. At present, it is looking likely that quotas will be gradually lifted up until that year to give a 'soft landing' to the EU dairy sector. The quotas have long been unpopular with Italian farmers, many of whom feel they lost out in the allocation as Italy's milk quota is less than half that of France. However, the abolition of quotas will bring threats as well as opportunities as it will allow larger, more efficient producers in other countries to increase production, ratcheting up competition.
We expect Italy's cheese production to grow by 18.4% to 2012, as demand on the home front and on export markets remains strong. In the first half of 2008, demand for one of Italy's most famous cheeses, buffalo mozzarella, was hit hard after it emerged that Naples' chaotic and corrupt waste disposal industry had allowed carcinogenic dioxins to get into buffalo feed and from there into their milk and cheese. Rice will be an important export crop throughout our forecast period, with production growing 19.9% to 2012 to 1.79mn tonnes. With more than three-quarters of this forecast to be available for export, Italy will continue to supply a large portion of the rest of the EU's rice needs. Work is under way to produce new hardier varieties that will be more resistant to the changes in temperatures in north Italy where the majority of the country's rice is grown. Italy's agriculture sector is still very fragmented by Western European standards - in 2005, according to data from Eurostat, small farms (from 5ha to 20ha) in Italy occupied more than three times as much land as in neighbouring France and almost six times as much land as in the UK. As quotas and subsidies from the EU are gradually withdrawn, many of these smaller operators may find it difficult to compete, driving consolidation in the sector.
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Sichuan Newhope Agribusiness Co., Ltd.
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