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Israel Retail Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, Oct 2009, Pages: 56
Israel Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Israel's retail industry.
Q409 Israel Retail Report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from around US$35bn in 2008 to nearly US$52bn by 2013. Key factors behind this growth are Israel’s strong underlying economic growth, sophisticated consumption habits, its growing population and rising disposable incomes. Israel’s nominal GDP was US$199.15bn in 2008, with a contraction of 0.9% now assumed for 2009 as the economy goes into reverse. Average annual GDP growth of 2.5% is predicted between 2008 and 2013. With the population increasing from 7.37mn in 2008 to 8.02mn during the forecast period, GDP per capita is predicted to rise by nearly 11.5% by 2013, reaching US$30,122.
The Jewish tradition of offering gifts to relatives and friends at many festivals during the year – Hanukah in December, Passover in March/April and Rosh Hashanah (Jewish New Year) in September – generates healthy demand for products such as consumer electronics, fashion goods and accessories, jewellery and other quality goods. Also, with about 30% of the Israeli population under 14, the youth market presents great potential for toy and game retailers.
In 2005, 63.3% of the Israeli population was described by the UN as economically active, with 35.5% in the crucial (for retail sales) 20-44 age range. By 2010, 64.3% of the population is expected to be economically active, but the proportion of those in the 20-44 age band is forecast to fall slightly to 35.3%. A very high level of urbanisation is also contributing to retail growth. In 2005, 91.7% of the population was classified by the UN as urban, and this is forecast to increase to 92.0% by 2015.
In terms of retail sub-sectors, Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) data indicate that in 2006, 3.9% of the Israeli household budget was spent on furniture and household equipment. 3.4% went on clothing and footwear, 1.3% on cosmetics and 0.4% on jewellery and watches. On this basis, the furniture and household equipment market was worth US$1.1bn in 2006, clothing and footwear was valued at US$1bn, cosmetics was US$0.4bn, and jewellery and watches was US$0.1bn.
According to the data, retail sub-sectors that are likely to show strong growth over the forecast period include consumer electronics, with sales predicted to rise by more than 26%, from US$2.89bn in 2008 to US$3.65bn by 2013. The over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sector is forecast to grow from US$0.36bn in 2008 to US$0.39bn by the end of the period, a rise of nearly 10%. Food and drink sales, meanwhile, are expected to rise from US$17.53bn in 2008 to US$18.40bn by 2013, an increase of 5.0%. Automotive sales, however, are forecast to fall by nearly 24% during the same period, from US$6.06bn in 2008 to US$4.62bn by 2013.
Retail sales for our set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2008 amounted to an estimated US$382bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on the macroeconomic database amounts to US$660.41bn. In 2008, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Egypt and South Africa together accounted for an estimated 79.8% of regional retail sales, and their combined share is expected to rise to 80.7% by 2013. For Israel, the estimated 2008 market share of 9.3% is expected to reduce to 9.1% by 2013.
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