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Beyond Cellular - The Evolved Wireless Cocktail
ARCchart, Jan 2005, Pages: 130
A technical and strategic study of the new wireless technologies; the factors driving their deployment and integration into mobile handsets; and their impact on the mobile value-chain.
As the mobile industry starts the mass roll-out of 3G, it is prescient to ask: where does the mobile industry go from here? Incredibly, the mobile services market has grown to 1.4 billion users worldwide and revenues of $500 billion with little deviation from the classic mobile operator business model which has existed since commercial cellular services started in the early 1980's.
However, wireless technologies are in the market today and on the imminent horizon which offer superior speeds to wide area cellular technologies and are completely IP-based. This threatens to disrupt the conventional cellular service model, and in the process shift the competitive positioning of mobile operators worldwide.
Over the coming years, step changes in the wireless industry will not be characterised by a serial overlay of evolved cellular technologies, such as the move from 2G to 2.5G and now 3G. Instead, it will be marked by the addition of evermore advanced wireless standards to a mixture of local, metro and wide area wireless technologies. These wireless technologies will consist of Wi-Fi and Ultra Wide Band (UWB) in the local area; broadband wireless access technologies like WiMAX, UMTS-TDD and Flash-OFDM in the metro area; and 3G cellular technologies like CDMA 1xEV-DO, W-CDMA and HSDPA in the wide area. This is set to create the 'wireless cocktail', a mix of multiple wireless standards combined into a single service platform for the consumer.
This report examines the range of new wireless communication technologies scheduled for deployment between 2004 and 2008. We analyse the technology characteristics, the forces driving supply, demand and deployment into the global market, and the factors affecting convergence of these technologies at a device and service level.
The report covers the key topics that are fundamental to an understanding of the evolved state of the wireless industry:
- The technical parameters of the new wireless technologies
- The current state of the cellular market and the path beyond 3G
- The value of high-speed, IP-based, wireless networks for consumers and the enterprise
- Wireless VoIP as a driver for the deployment and integration of the new wireless technologies
- The value proposition of fixed WiMAX vs. mobile WiMAX
- The prospects for Flash-OFDM and UMTS-TDD broadband wireless access technologies
- Mobile phone integration
- The technologies attempting to 'stitch' together these disparate networks
- Average user bandwidths
- The impact of the wireless cocktail on the mobile services industry
Answers and opinions are provided with respect to the following essential questions:
- What will be the wireless cocktail deployment pattern over the next four years?
- What will drive deployment and adoption of the new wireless technologies?
- Will WiMAX become the dominant BWA standard?
- What are the prospects for the proprietary BWA technologies available today?
- Which elements of the current mobile industry are threatened by the new wireless paradigm?
- What are the prospects for Ultra Wide Band as a WLAN technology?
- What is Intel's motivation behind its aggressive support of WiMAX?
- What will be the factors driving integration of the new wireless technologies into the handset?
- What proportion of mobile handsets will ship with integrated Wi-Fi or BWA support?
- What companies are best positioned to take advantage of the evolved wireless landscape?
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