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Next-Generation Network Architecture: What and When?
Analysys Mason Group, Jan 2008
'The rise of NGNs and NGAs, coupled with the vogue for separation of bottleneck physical assets, raises a fundamental long-term question for operators: 'Where do operators want their principal assets to be?''
Rupert Wood, Principal Analyst
Given their stagnating revenue and the decline in their core service propositions, most incumbent operators are embarking on next-generation network (NGN) transformations. The principal reasons that operators give for this investment are the requirements to cut costs by rationalising core businesses and to re-engineer to better take advantage of the opportunities presented by pervasive IP networking. NGN roll-outs also represent a way for incumbents to reduce their burden of regulation and to transform their asset bases; both these outcomes could have broader implications for the industry.
This report examines the relative merits of the three main approaches to NGN investment: a move to a full NGN core (such as that being carried out by BT), investment in next-generation access (NGA) with a core overlay (like that by Deutsche Telekom), and a full-IP strategy of rolling out NGA and NGN at the same time (like that of KPN). Using a return on investment (ROI) model, the report identifies critical dependencies and assesses the ability of each strategy to attain the desired outcomes of cost saving and revenue enablement, given different market and regulatory environments.
Next-Generation Network Architecture: what and when? answers your key questions:
What are the key dependencies and critical success factors for the different NGN strategies?
What are the potential benefits of these strategies, in terms of cost transformation, and how time-dependent are they?
Is there sufficient demand for centralised services?
What are the regulatory issues associated with NGNs?
How much leverage can incumbents expect to exert on regulatory authorities?
What are the long-term implications of NGNs for the market structure?
Who should read this report
-Incumbent operators: identify critical dependencies in the formulation and implementation of NGN strategies.
-Alternative operators: understand the implications for the altnet sector of incumbents’ strategies.
-Non-facilities-based service providers: in a changing landscape, identify market opportunities and formulate the best strategies to address them.
-Media, IT and consumer-electronics companies: develop a view of the way the telecoms landscape is changing and of how different strategies will influence the value chain.
-Policy makers and regulators: gain insight into how different NGN strategies can affect the competitive situation of the main groups of players.
-Investors and analysts: understand how different NGN strategies will affect the long-term prospects of the major players in the market.
-Mobile operators: understand probable developments in the fixed retail and wholesale markets and how they could affect the mobile business.
About the authors:
Rupert Wood is a principal analyst and directs fixed telecoms research at Analysys Research. Rupert specialises in wireline services, fixed–mobile competition and convergence in voice. He has produced research for Analysys in the areas of broadband access, services, pricing and regulation, fixed-mobile substitution and VoIP. He has also produced reports taking a longer-range view of the structure of the telecoms industry. Rupert also manages the Analysys Research Telecoms Market Matrix, directs the Analysys Research Fixed Networks and Services online market intelligence service and has a particular interest in the development of Eastern European/CIS telecoms markets. Rupert is a regular contributor to the international press on a wide range of telecoms issues and has been quoted by The Times, Economist, Business Week and Telecommunications Online. Before joining Analysys, Rupert was a Lecturer at the University of Cambridge.
Stephen Sale is a senior analyst specialising in consumer voice and broadband research. He contributes to Analysys Telecoms Market Matrix and the Fixed Networks and Services module of the Analysys Research market intelligence service, and has written numerous market trends papers for Analysys Research. Stephen wrote Opportunities for Non-traditional Players in Communications Markets and Fixed–Mobile Convergence: opportunities and strategies for the mass market. He was also co-author of The Impact of the Multi-service Play: scenarios for future growth and Emerging Business Models in Voice: the impact of Skype and other private VoIP applications. Prior to joining Analysys, Stephen worked in a number of research and marketing roles within the telecoms industry and has several years’ experience in VoIP and broadband access. Stephen has a degree in economics and an interdisciplinary M.Res. from the University of London.
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