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Executive Report on Strategies in Bulgaria
ICON Group International, June 2007, Pages: 393
How to Strategically Evaluate Bulgaria
Perhaps the most efficient way of evaluating Bulgaria is to consider key dimensions which themselves are composites of multiple factors. Composite portfolio approaches have long been used by strategic planners. The biggest challenge in this approach is to choose the appropriate factors that are the most relevant to international planning. The two measures of greatest relevance are “latent demand” and “market accessibility”. The figure below summarizes the key dimensions and recommendations of such an approach. Using these two composites, one can prioritize all countries of the world. Countries of high latent demand and high relative accessibility (e.g. easier entry for one firm compared to other firms) are given highest priority. The figure below shows two different scenarios. Accessibility is defined as a firm’s ease of entering or supplying from or to a market (the “supply side”), and latent demand is an indicator of the potential in serving from or to the market (the “demand side”).
Framework for Prioritizing Countries
Demand/Market Potential Driven Firm
Relative Accessibility
Accessibility/Supply Averse Firm
Relative Accessibility
In the top figure, the firm is driven by market potential, whereas the bottom figure represents a firm that is driven by costs or by an aversion to difficult markets. This report treats the reader as coming from a “generic firm” approaching the global market - neither a market-driven nor a cost-driven company. Planners must therefore augment this report with their own company-specific factors that might change the priorities.
Latent Demand and Accessibility in Bulgaria
This report provides an extremely detailed overview of factors driving latent demand and accessibility in Bulgaria. Latent demand is largely driven by economic fundamentals. But, latent demand only represents half of the picture. A country may at first sight appear to be attractive due to a high latent demand, but it is often less attractive when one considers at the macro level how easy it might be to serve that entire potential and/or general business risks.
Chapter 2 deals with macro-accessibility. While accessibility will always vary from one company to another for a given country, the following domains are typically considered when evaluating macro-accessibility in Bulgaria:
Openness to Trade in Bulgaria
Openness to Direct Investment in Bulgaria
Local Marketing and Entry Strategy Alternatives
Local Human Resources
Local Risks
Across these domains, a number of not-so-obvious factors can affect accessibility and risk. These are also covered in Chapter 2, which is presented from the perspective of an American firm, though it is equally applicable to most firms entering Bulgaria. This chapter has been authored by local offices of the U.S. Government. I have included a number of edits to clarify the provided information as it relates to the general strategic framework.
In Chapter 3, I summarize the economic potential for Bulgaria over the next five years for hundreds of industries, categories, and products. The goal of this chapter is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or latent demand, represented by Bulgaria when defined as an area of dominant influence. The data presented are the result of various spatial econometric and time-series forecasting models which, for each category presented, are applied to forecast and allocate latent demand across all countries of the world and major distribution centers or centers of dominant influence within each country. This is accomplished knowing that economic fundamentals (e.g. income) generally vary from one country to another within a given country over time. In this chapter, I report the allocation for each category for Bulgaria as an area of dominant influence in Europe and, potentially, the world.
The report concludes with trade indicators for Bulgaria. Often, the amount of trade flowing into and out of a country is a strong indicator of trading partners, trade openness, and related latent demand. Trade indicators are purely statistical in nature. Although international trade is not a direct measure of latent demand, it does provide an indicator of general market conditions with respect to trade flows and trade openness in Bulgaria.
As a whole, this report presents a strategic assessment of Bulgaria by considering an extremely broad set of factors affecting both latent demand and accessibility, as outlined in the following chapters.
MACRO-ACCESSIBILITY IN BULGARIA
Political Risks
Economic Relationship with the United States
Since the fall of Communism at the end of 1989, numerous bilateral agreements have been signed between Bulgaria and the United States. In the areas of aviation and defense these include the Civil Aviation Security Agreement of 1991, an agreement by the United States International Military Education and Training (IMET) Program (1992), and a Memorandum of Cooperation on Defense and Military Relations (1994).
Agreements on postal matters include a Memorandum of Understanding on the INTELPOST service (1990) and the International Express Mail Agreement (1991). Other trade-related agreements include a 1993 agreement on trade in textiles and textile products, the Investment Incentive Agreement (1991).
On February 1, 1999, a bilateral Memorandum of Understanding came into force providing for tax-free treatment of U. S. Government assistance.
The Political System
Following the removal of long time communist leader Todor Zhivkov in 1989, Bulgaria has been a parliamentary republic ruled by a democratically elected government. A new constitution was enacted in 1991, which lays out the basic rights and obligations of citizens and is the basis for Bulgaria’s legal system. The constitution guarantees freedom of association including the right to form political parties.
The constitution provides for the separation of powers amongst the executive, judicial and legislative branches and a system of checks and balances. The President is the head of state. The presidency is empowered to conclude international treaties and to schedule parliamentary (or National Assembly) elections. The President is also the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The National Assembly is a unicameral legislative body that consists of 240 members who are elected for a term of four years.
Failure to follow through on reform measures through most of the 1990’s led to the rapid downward spin of the economy which in turn seriously affected the living standards of all Bulgarians. Between 1989 and 1997 there were eight governments in Bulgaria. By giving local groups without management ability priority in the privatization process and access to questionable loans, this cronyism spread weakness throughout the economy causing the banking system to nearly collapse in May 1996. The BSP-led government’s slow progress in implementing reforms and mishandling of the economy led to a host of financial, social and economic problems which reached crisis level in late 1996.
In February 1997, after several weeks of escalating public protests televised worldwide over the government’s handling of the economy, the government agreed to step down and was replaced by a caretaker government that moved quickly to stabilize the economy in March 1997 by concluding a $510 million standby arrangement with the IMF to help pull the country out of crisis. In April 1997, a reform-minded coalition headed by Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) won an absolute majority in parliamentary elections.
Marketing Strategies
Creating a Sales Office
Businesses may establish a representative office for information gathering activities. A representative office is not viewed as a legal entity in Bulgaria. Certain restrictions are placed on the office’s activities. The Commercial Code and the Foreign Investment Law define the various forms of economic associations and regulate their foundation, organization, and termination. While it is possible to register a branch of a foreign entity in Bulgaria, the most common type of organization for foreign investors is a limited liability company (OOD).
The procedure for establishing a company in Bulgaria requires registration with the local district court. Registration documents generally include:
Application
Certificate of Incorporation of the parent company
By-laws of the parent company
Minutes of a meeting of the parent company at which the resolution for establishment of a subsidiary in Bulgaria is passed
A founding act (by-laws) of the Bulgarian subsidiary
A letter, issued by the Statistics Institute, confirming the uniqueness of the name of the Bulgarian subsidiary in the district covered by the respective registration court.
Specimens of the signatures of the manager
Declaration of the management
Bank receipt attesting to authorized capital on deposit in a Bulgarian bank
Receipt of paid state fees for registration and publication in the State Gazette.
As of May 2001, the Hague Convention Abolishing the Requirement of Legalization for Foreign Public Document has been applied in Bulgaria. Therefore, legalization is no longer necessary. However, in order to be certified in Bulgaria, foreign public documents must be translated and bear an Apostille.
The subsequent registrations with the Statistics Institute, the Social Security Institute and the tax authorities should be completed as follows:
Statistics Institute - within three days as of receiving the court decision for the registration of the company
Tax authorities - within fourteen days as of receiving the court decision for the registration of the company
Social Security Institute - there is no statutory term for this registration
Registration with the Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BCCI) is optional, but useful, since BCCI issues certificates-of-origin for products.
VAT registration is done separately from the general tax registration, and is subject to a number of conditions such as VAT taxable turnover equal to or exceeding BGN 50,000 (fifty thousand). Under the latest amendments of the Law on VAT (effective July 1, 2002), within fifteen days of receiving the VAT registration certificate a company must open a VAT account (i.e. a bank account) under the control of the tax authorities. This account should be used for receiving and paying the VAT amounts payable to or by the company. The VAT account may not be used for payment of or as a security for any other obligations apart from the ones stipulated in the Law on VAT.
Similar registration procedures as well as other statutory requirements apply to establishing other legal entities such as joint stock companies (ADs), general partnerships (SDs) and limited partnerships (KDs).
Creating a Joint Venture
There are several laws that govern joint ventures with foreign participation, including the Law on Foreign Investment (hereinafter referred to as the Foreign Investment Law), and the Commercial Code.
Joint ventures with state-owned companies (i.e., wholly owned by the Bulgarian State) must be approved by the Council of Ministers or by the relevant minister, as the case may be. The “Regulations for the Regime of Exercising the State’s Rights in Commercial Companies with State Equity Participation”, promulgated in June 2003, provides the authority for the Council of Ministers or for the respective ministers, as the case may be, with respect to exercising State’s rights over shares or stock in commercial companies.
The negotiation phase usually addresses the evaluation of existing assets and contribution of the foreign partner. The foreign contribution can be in cash, capital in-kind and/or know-how. The contribution of the local partner is usually in long-term assets (i.e., existing equipment, facilities, etc.). Other usually discussed issues are: labor issues (employment guarantees), future business and marketing plans and management contracts. In kind contributions to the capital of an OOD, AD or a company limited by shares (KDA) are always subject to evaluation by three court appointed experts, regardless of whether such a contribution is made at the establishment of the company, or in view of a subsequent increase of the company’s capital. No evaluation by experts is required In the event of monetary contribution to the capital of the company.
Joint ventures with private companies do not follow the same procedures. No government involvement or approval is necessary. After completion of negotiations, the entity must be registered with the relevant court provided that the joint venture company assumes the legal form of a commercial company. If a new legal entity is created, an evaluation of the assets must be performed by a three court-appointed experts provided that any of the participants in the joint venture company makes in-kind contribution against acquisition of share capital. If the party that makes the in-kind contribution is not satisfied with the experts’ evaluation, such a party is entitled to participate in the joint venture company with cash contribution.
The most successful American joint venture in Bulgaria has been the one formed by American Standard and the Bulgarian Vidima Ideal. American Standard has since bought out its Bulgarian partner and built its biggest factory in the world, which exports bathroom fixtures throughout Europe.
Agents and Distributors
U.S. exporters, especially small and medium size enterprises, will most likely choose to enter the Bulgarian market through an agent or distributor. This is because the small size of the Bulgarian market, distance and language differences will make it unattractive to set up a branch or subsidiary at the outset. Even some well-known large American companies are currently represented in Bulgaria by an agent for these reasons.
In considering a potential agent or distributor, common sense prevails: a U.S. company should not automatically sign up the first Bulgarian company that contacts them, and a due diligence background check of a potential business partner, plus frequent visits by the export sales manager, are essential.
Hiring Local Counsel
Bulgarian law stipulates that representation in court and before administrative agencies must be performed by a duly licensed member of the Bulgarian Bar Association, who are independent practitioners in law firms or who are certain employees of corporations. Bulgaria does not allow foreign lawyers to practice in Bulgarian courts, except in criminal cases while accompanied by a Bulgarian lawyer, on a reciprocal basis by agreement with the other country. In the case of a corporation, representation may be either by an authorized senior executive of the firm such as executive director, or by an employee who has passed the practical examination of the Ministry of Justice and who has a power of attorney from the corporation to represent it as “in-house counsel.”
A Bulgarian patent representative who specializes in intellectual property rights and who is admitted to practice before the Bulgarian Patent Office is also essential for preparing documents to protect intellectual property rights. Some lawyers are patent representatives.
Other services such as filing of corporate documents with the courts, legal opinions, and legal consultations, are in practice performed by self-styled “legal consultants,” whose qualifications and experience may vary widely as the field is entirely unregulated. Some legal consultants may be former in-house counsel. Attorneys who are members of the Bulgarian Bar Association also provide such services.
Many Bulgarian law firms have already established relationships and associations with foreign law firms, including American affiliates. Additionally, some of the larger international accounting and consultancy firms have established legal departments which perform some of the services offered by a law firm.
A foreign counsel may be used to review documents and to provide general advice as to joint venture or privatization negotiations.
Checking Bona Fides
There is only one internationally recognized credit reporting agencies in Bulgaria, Credit Reform Bulgaria, headquartered in Germany, although there are new companies that have advertised their ability to check corporate references and provide corporate financial data.
Distribution Channel Options
Retailing
Bulgaria’s retail sector is dominated by small-scale shops. With the privatization of the state-owned shops and new-market-entry following the end of Communism in 1989, the predominant part of retail trade is already in private hands. Shop owners are quickly gathering experience in modern marketing and sales promotion. Nearly 100 percent of the food sales are handled by private shops and vendors. Fruits and vegetables are typically sold at open-air, non-refrigerated public markets.
Bulgaria’s first modern retailer, Stambouli, a Cyprus-based company. began operating dollar stores in Bulgaria in 1984. In the early 1990’s, they introduced the first modern general retail stores in Bulgaria, the nationwide Bonjour chain. Local supermarket and food stores such as Oazis, Elemak and Fantastiko were the first modern supermarkets selling both Bulgarian and imported food products. Currently, large foreign food market chains such as Billa (Germany/Austria), Ramstore (Turkey) and others have entered the market. All of these stores utilize contemporary shelving displays, refrigeration display, and even point-of-sale promotions. Except for their relatively small size, these stores increasingly resemble mid-range supermarkets in the United States.
A rapidly growing group of retailers include the nationwide networks of gasoline stations operated by Shell, OMV and Lukoil. These offer simple automotive service repairs, car wash, minimarkets, and in many cases, food service operators such as McDonalds or Happy restaurants.
Big changes to Bulgaria’s retailing structure started in 1999, when the German firm METRO, the second-largest retailer in the world after Walmart, opened its first cash-and-carry membership store in Sofia. METRO carries a wide variety of direct-imported consumer items, including many U.S. brands. METRO has expanded throughout Bulgaria, and its entry into the market has been followed by the Greek consumer goods chain store Ena, the German/Austrian Billa, the UK franchiser of Picadilly supermarkets chain, the Turkish Ramstore and the French do-it-yourself supermarkets chain Mr. Bricolage.
Larger cities outside Sofia have one or two stores on the scale of a department store, although many of these are now out of business. These stores typically retail nonperishable consumer products such as household appliances, furniture, apparel, personal care/hygiene items, and consumer electronics.
While Bulgaria does not have shopping malls, there are increasing numbers of shopping streets, shopping arcades and co-located stores. Recent examples of this trend in Sofia are the renovated TSUM, formerly a department store, now several floors of fashionable shops; the Centralni Hali, formerly a vegetable market, now two floors of a wide variety of food and clothing shops, plus a food court; and Vitosha Boulevard, Graf Ignatiev Street, Solunska Street and the renovated Pirotska Street, all of which have many fashionable shops. Regional cities typically have a pedestrian-only shopping area in the center of the city.
Consumer-oriented trade shows and seasonal bazaars are an important part of the retail scene. The Christmas Bazaar at the National Palace of Culture in Sofia lasts almost two months and features hundreds of booths--actually small shops--on six floors of the complex, turning it into a temporary shopping mall, packed with consumers. Frequent sector-specific bazaars such as food shows and consumer electronics shows do a big business as well.
Wholesaling
While each product sector has its own distribution channels, overall the transformation of the industrial products and raw material market segments is much slower paced. Bulgaria’s wholesale sector is characterized by fragmentary development. Previously, wholesaling of Bulgarian products was handled by manufacturers who distributed products directly to retailers, and imports were handled by large state-owned enterprises. Some wholesale operations were established in the consumer sector. Now the wholesaling sector is increasingly composed of private companies. An example is the Ilientsi warehouse and storage facility located in Sofia’s northwest industrial zone. Food and non-food retailers throughout the country purchase substantial quantities through Ilientsi.
Many wholesalers focus on the distribution of imported products. Trade liberalization encouraged many new companies to enter trading activities. An array of companies has entered the market and expanded distribution and services. The introduction of marketing concepts and information technologies is not only accelerating but is facilitating the transformation.
Franchising Activities
Unknown in Bulgaria in 1989, franchising has spread to ten industry sectors in Bulgaria. The first franchise operations were little more than stores or distribution licenses for trademarked products. From the bottling of Pepsi-Cola, the establishment of KFC Chicken, Pizza Hut, Dunkin Donut shops and Office 1 Superstore, and stores featuring well-known European clothing brands, over the past several years franchising have also appeared in the executive recruiting and other services fields. The Bulgarian retail market is now ready for the many products and services that are typically marketed and sold in foreign-based franchise stores. Bulgarian consumers are looking for retailers that can provide a consistent selection of quality products, reasonable prices and good service.
An important study has shown that profitable sectors with a relatively fast return of investment are tourism, the food industry, construction, and services. Potential in the service and food sectors include printing/photocopying, automotive product retailing and car rental, laundry and dry cleaning, hardware and retail stores, baked foods, candy and snacks, business aid & services, fast foods, head hunters and hotels & motels. The best opportunities are in the big cities (Sofia, Varna, Plovdiv, Burgas) where the population has a relatively high level of disposable income. Best prospect sectors for U.S. franchisers include automotive products and services; food - restaurants, hotel and motels; laundry and dry-cleaning; and employment services. Good opportunities exist in the following sectors: convenience stores; food -ice cream and yogurt; hardware stores; printing and photocopying services; specialty retail stores; commercial and residential cleaning. Other possibilities exist in the following sectors: equipment rental centers; eye care and optical center; food -baked foods, candy and snacks; and educational services.
Despite franchising being a new concept for the Bulgarian business community, the Bulgarian legal system accommodates franchise agreements. Laws on labor relations are clearly spelled out, leases can be freely negotiated, and laws protect trademarks, patents and copyrights.
The primary challenge in establishing franchises is obtaining sites. In urban areas, especially Sofia, it is sometimes difficult to locate and lease properties at an affordable cost. Difficulties in finding locations with clear titles also creates complications and delays in finding sites.
Recently, some Bulgarian franchisers have entered the market: Policontact (employment services), Piccadilly (retail stores), Happy Bar & Grill (food restaurants), and Sanita (medicine distribution) started their business in Varna and so far they quite successful.
The International Executive Service Corps (IESC), a U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)-funded organization, works with Bulgarian companies, matching them with potential U.S. franchise owners. In addition, there is a Bulgarian Franchise Association.
Direct Marketing Options
Direct marketing is relatively new to Bulgaria. There are few, if any Bulgarian mail-order catalogs. Vacuum cleaners and cosmetics are being sold fairly successfully door-to-door. Companies employ different marketing techniques. An Austrian company is currently using television home shopping “infomercials” to sell kitchen tools and appliances not available in local shops. Home demonstrations are not popular and have generated little success. Avon and the Swedish company Oriflame report success in the direct sale of cosmetics.
Limitations to expansion of telemarketing are poor telephone service in rural areas (not everyone has a telephone) and unreliable mail deliveries. There are also no toll-free telephone services offered by BTC. For the time being, direct marketing techniques may have more relevance to larger urban areas. According to industry professionals, the population of smaller towns is suspicious of direct marketing to end-users. In less populated areas where contact between people is infrequent, door-to-door selling is viewed as a way to socialize.
Direct marketing through catalogs, telemarketing and the Internet from the United States to Bulgaria is still quite difficult. Few Bulgarians have credit cards, and with residual lack of confidence in the banking system and undeveloped banking infrastructure, debit cards are just now coming into popularity. Together with the low purchasing power, the high cost of shipping and lack of security for parcels and mail at most homes, catalog shopping and Internet shopping from the United States is in its infancy.
Selling Strategies
Bulgarian consumers and companies have low purchasing power, which means that price is a major consideration in developing a market strategy. While some customers may prefer to “buy Bulgarian,” frequently there is no Bulgarian manufacturer or it is recognized that the Bulgarian supplier does not have the capacity or the quality of product to meet the customers’ needs. So frequently the contest is among American, European and Asian suppliers. American companies are widely recognized for their quality and reasonable price, and value sells well in Bulgaria.
Market statistics are essential to choosing specific marketing strategies, but the Bulgarian market can be complex and difficult to gauge. Market size statistics are almost nonexistent. Available statistics are usually unreliable and do not assist in accurately predicting market responses. While low official disposable income statistics might initially discourage market entry, the size of the unofficial economy and inferences from observing actual sales activity paints a brighter picture. First-hand observation on the streets and in the shops is essential for gauging the amount of actual economic activity in Bulgaria.
Selling to state-owned companies, like selling to the government anywhere, has its own advantages and difficulties. As Bulgaria privatizes, American companies are advised to focus on the private sector. The growth of the private sector augers well for foreign businesses that are accustomed to selling products based on price, product quality and after-sales service.
In the private segment of the economy, marketing techniques will not vary greatly from other foreign countries. Some techniques for developing greater product awareness include developing close relationships with professionals and non-profit organizations, as in the pharmaceutical, health care and medical equipment sectors, sponsoring research, participating in trade shows and events, and placing advertisements or writing articles in professional journals. Some companies have chosen sponsorship of game shows or events.
Product Pricing
Importers typically mark-up prices 50 percent to wholesalers, who then mark-up their goods another 100 percent. Thus the end price to the consumer can be as much as 300 percent the import price. However, there are great variations, depending on the product, and prices of many goods are 25 percent less than prices in the United States and the European Union.
Price supports and state subsidies are being stripped away. The 1997 amendment to the Regulation for Implementing the Law on Prices substantially decreased the number of items subject to limited price control. The products affected are primarily basic necessities. All other prices are directly negotiated between the manufacturer and the distributor. Price competition is becoming more intensive. Realignment of prices has already occurred in many instances.
Consumer demand is price elastic in Bulgaria. Due to low per capita income and purchasing power, consumers are highly price sensitive. However, consumers are willing to spend more in return for higher quality. Most people have generally restricted their purchasing to basic necessities. Imported products are typically higher priced than locally produced goods. Pent-up demand for goods not previously available is responsible for some sustained demand for imports.
Despite the disparities in purchasing power, a number of imported products in Bulgaria are actually more expensive than the same or similar products sold in stores in the United States. U.S. manufacturers considering export to Bulgaria should look closely at ways to cut transportation and distribution costs for selling to Bulgaria so that Bulgarian customers can benefit from the wide variety and attractive prices of American products.
Licensing Options
Since Bulgarian companies do not have ready access to good financing, it might be difficult for a U.S. company to find a Bulgarian company able to invest large sums to acquire a production license or new manufacturing capability for an American product. However, enterprises with existing and suitable manufacturing capacity and good markets might be eager to take on the manufacturing of an American product. This might be a good market strategy for a U.S. company with high labor costs and product prices that are too high for Bulgarian customers. Production for Bulgaria’s market in Bulgaria, with its low labor costs, might enable market entry. Caution is advised, however, as in any transfer of technology.
The Law on Obligations and Contracts and the Commercial Code sets forth the rules for making a licensing contract.
Advertising and Trade Promotion
Advertising Options
Advertising is quickly becoming a key marketing tool in Bulgaria. Today, nearly all companies in Bulgaria engage in some form of advertising. The following advertising media are preferred by Bulgarian companies (in descending order): printed media, both newspapers and magazines, radio, outdoor billboards/signs, event sponsorship, trade shows, sales promotion literature, and last, television. Television is becoming more and more important but the price of commercial airtime is simultaneously rising. While it is more than affordable for foreign companies, it is still expensive for many Bulgarian companies. Because of the cost, the leading users of television advertising are mainly foreign-affiliated companies, especially those specializing in consumer products. It may be necessary for a U.S. supplier to assist their Bulgarian agent or distributor in coping with the cost of television commercials.
Advertising is regulated by the 1998 Law on the Protection of Competition. This law prohibits advertisements, which disseminate misleading information to consumers or malign the reputation of competitors.
Separate legislation regulates advertising for specific products. Article 35 of the Law on Tobacco and Tobacco Products explicitly prohibits any advertising of tobacco products with the exception of point-of-sale promotions. This provision appears not to be enforced, given ubiquitous advertising of cigarettes in all the media. The Pharmaceutical Law prohibits the marketing and advertising of pharmaceuticals that are not registered in Bulgaria. Advertising content for registered pharmaceuticals must be pre-approved by the Executive Agency on Pharmaceutical Products (the registration authority).
There are about thirty companies that provide a full range of professional advertising services. These companies have formed an advertising association, and there is at least one other association comprised of smaller companies. These companies have tried to influence the media to pay attention to internat
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