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Executive Report on Strategies in Egypt
ICON Group International, June 2007, Pages: 394
How to Strategically Evaluate Egypt
Perhaps the most efficient way of evaluating Egypt is to consider key dimensions which themselves are composites of multiple factors. Composite portfolio approaches have long been used by strategic planners. The biggest challenge in this approach is to choose the appropriate factors that are the most relevant to international planning. The two measures of greatest relevance are “latent demand” and “market accessibility”. The figure below summarizes the key dimensions and recommendations of such an approach. Using these two composites, one can prioritize all countries of the world. Countries of high latent demand and high relative accessibility (e.g. easier entry for one firm compared to other firms) are given highest priority. The figure below shows two different scenarios. Accessibility is defined as a firm’s ease of entering or supplying from or to a market (the “supply side”), and latent demand is an indicator of the potential in serving from or to the market (the “demand side”).
Framework for Prioritizing Countries
Demand/Market Potential Driven Firm
Relative Accessibility
Accessibility/Supply Averse Firm
Relative Accessibility
In the top figure, the firm is driven by market potential, whereas the bottom figure represents a firm that is driven by costs or by an aversion to difficult markets. This report treats the reader as coming from a “generic firm” approaching the global market - neither a market-driven nor a cost-driven company. Planners must therefore augment this report with their own company-specific factors that might change the priorities.
Latent Demand and Accessibility in Egypt
This report provides an extremely detailed overview of factors driving latent demand and accessibility in Egypt. Latent demand is largely driven by economic fundamentals. But, latent demand only represents half of the picture. A country may at first sight appear to be attractive due to a high latent demand, but it is often less attractive when one considers at the macro level how easy it might be to serve that entire potential and/or general business risks.
Chapter 2 deals with macro-accessibility. While accessibility will always vary from one company to another for a given country, the following domains are typically considered when evaluating macro-accessibility in Egypt:
Openness to Trade in Egypt
Openness to Direct Investment in Egypt
Local Marketing and Entry Strategy Alternatives
Local Human Resources
Local Risks
Across these domains, a number of not-so-obvious factors can affect accessibility and risk. These are also covered in Chapter 2, which is presented from the perspective of an American firm, though it is equally applicable to most firms entering Egypt. This chapter has been authored by local offices of the U.S. Government. I have included a number of edits to clarify the provided information as it relates to the general strategic framework.
In Chapter 3, I summarize the economic potential for Egypt over the next five years for hundreds of industries, categories, and products. The goal of this chapter is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or latent demand, represented by Egypt when defined as an area of dominant influence. The data presented are the result of various spatial econometric and time-series forecasting models which, for each category presented, are applied to forecast and allocate latent demand across all countries of the world and major distribution centers or centers of dominant influence within each country. This is accomplished knowing that economic fundamentals (e.g. income) generally vary from one country to another within a given country over time. In this chapter, I report the allocation for each category for Egypt as an area of dominant influence in Africa and, potentially, the world.
The report concludes with trade indicators for Egypt. Often, the amount of trade flowing into and out of a country is a strong indicator of trading partners, trade openness, and related latent demand. Trade indicators are purely statistical in nature. Although international trade is not a direct measure of latent demand, it does provide an indicator of general market conditions with respect to trade flows and trade openness in Egypt.
As a whole, this report presents a strategic assessment of Egypt by considering an extremely broad set of factors affecting both latent demand and accessibility, as outlined in the following chapters.
MACRO-ACCESSIBILITY IN EGYPT
Economic Fundamentals and Dynamics
Direction and Composition of Trade
The European Union (EU) as a bloc remains Egypt’s largest trading partner, typically accounting for around 35-40% of imports and exports. When implemented, Egypt’s Partnership Agreement with the EU could result in a significantly larger volume of trade. The U.S. comes next (and is Egypt’s largest trading partner as a country), accounting for around 20% of imports and 10-15% of exports. Asian countries account for around 25% of both imports and exports. Countries in the Middle East take 13% of exports and account for about 6% of imports, while Africa, Latin America, and Australia account for less than 5% each of imports and exports.
Egypt’s leading merchandise export is crude oil and petroleum products, followed by finished goods (chiefly textiles and apparel), and raw materials (cotton and other agricultural products). Cement producers have begun to find overseas markets. Leading imports include capital goods, machinery, and agricultural commodities. Although Egyptian government officials and the media routinely decry the import of “luxury goods,” consumer goods account for only about one sixth of all imports.
Chief U.S. exports to Egypt include agricultural commodities (usually around $1 billion annually), capital goods, and equipment.
We caution that Egyptian trade and balance-of-payments data remain confusing and often contradictory. The balance-of-payments figures, for example, include the payments made by the Egyptian government to foreign oil and gas companies for their share of domestic production bought by the government and used in Egypt and thus probably overstate imports in general. They also may include payments for transactions in which the Egyptian participant was a broker for a transaction between two other countries, as in trade figures for Iraq. Finally, balance-of-payment figures may report payments made to financial center banks (such as in New York) rather than recording the ultimate recipient, skewing the individual country trade statistics. Customs figures, on the other hand, appear to understate oil and perhaps other exports. The truth probably lies somewhere between the balance-of-payment statistics (always higher for both imports and exports) and customs figures.
Economic Cooperation
Regional Initiatives
In June 2001, Egypt signed an Association Agreement with the European Union. Egypt’s parliament ratified the agreement in March 2003
Egypt has trade agreements with nearly every Arab country. In January 1998, Egypt began implementing agreements reached with Arab League members in connection with the Arab Common Market treaty of the 1960s, which call for phasing out existing tariffs over a 10-year period. Long negative lists impede the effectiveness of almost all of these agreements, however. Egypt has been a member of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) since mid-1998.
U.S.-Egypt Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA)
Egypt and the U.S. signed a Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) in 1999. The TIFA provides a mechanism for facilitating the concrete measures needed to continue moving the two countries towards freer trade. It established a Council on Trade and Investment (TIFA Council) composed of representatives of both governments and chaired by USTR and Egypt’s Ministry of Economy and Foreign Trade. The Council first met in November 1999. In June 2002, United States Trade Representative Robert Zoellick and Egyptian Minister of Foreign Trade Youssef Boutros Ghali discussed steps toward liberalizing trade between the United States and Egypt. A TIFA Council meeting followed in October 2002. That meeting resulted in the establishment of four working groups: on government procurement, customs reform and administration, sanitary/phytosanitary issues, and agricultural trade. The working groups held their first sessions in December 2002 and have met regularly since then.
U.S. Economic Assistance
The U.S. government has provided Egypt over $25 billion in economic assistance since 1975. USAID has been instrumental in putting into place the foundations for economic growth, such as infrastructure (water, wastewater, power, and telecommunications) and a favorable economic policy environment for private sector development. The recent areas of concentration of the program have included job creation, economic growth and productivity, infrastructure, education, democracy and governance, population, health and nutrition, environment, and natural resource management. USAID adopted in 2000 a new strategy that focuses on expanding the role of Egypt’s private sector to help move Egypt from an assistance-based relationship to a relationship based on trade and investment. New areas of concentration under this program include the development of the information technology sector, strengthening Egypt’s capacity for human resource development, trade policy capacity building, financial sector reform, and continuing efforts to enhance Egypt’s business and export competitiveness.
Economic assistance levels averaged over $800 million annually from the time of the Camp David accords (1978) until mid-1998. Food aid averaged over $218 million/year stating in 1975, but ended in 1992 in light of Egypt’s gains in agricultural self-sufficiency. As part of an overall revision in U.S. assistance policy, aid levels have, by mutual agreement with the Government of Egypt, been on a downward glide path since 1999.
U.S. Support for Trade and Investment
The Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC), the U.S. Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im Bank), and the Trade and Development Agency (TDA) are committed to supporting the growth of U.S.-Egyptian bilateral trade and investment. These agencies provide loan and insurance products and services, such as support for feasibility studies on major investments involving U.S. inputs. Several business missions from OPIC and Ex-Im Bank visited Egypt in late 2002 and the first half of 2003 to explore possibilities for increasing their activities in Egypt. Information about Ex-Im Bank, OPIC, and TDA programs is available through their head offices in Washington or through the Embassy.
Political Risks
Economic Relationship with the United States
The United States and Egypt enjoy a strong and friendly relationship based on shared mutual interest in Middle East peace, regional stability and security, combating international terrorism, strengthening trade relations, and revitalizing the Egyptian economy. Multinational exercises, U.S. assistance to Egypt’s military modernization program (valued at $1.3 billion annually), and Egypt’s role as a contributor to various UN peacekeeping operations continually reinforce the U.S.-Egyptian military relationship. Egypt is our indispensable partner in the quest for regional peace, and it works closely with the U.S. to that end.
Political System
The Egyptian Constitution provides for a strong President empowered to appoint one or more Vice Presidents, the Prime Minister, the Cabinet, and Egypt’s 26 provincial governors. President Hosni Mubarak was reelected in September 1999 to a fourth 6-year term. The bicameral legislature includes the law-making People’s Assembly and a consultative upper house, the Shura Council. People’s Assembly elections were held in late 2000 for a five-year term and elections for one-third of the Shura Council seats were held in May 2001.
The National Democratic Party (NDP) has been the ruling party since its foundation in 1978. It effectively controls local and national government. Within its ranks are both members who favor greater economic and political reform as well as members who oppose reforms. There are more than a dozen recognized opposition parties, all of them small. Some of these parties have members in the People’s Assembly and the Shura Council.
Political Violence
There have been no confirmed acts of terrorist violence in Egypt since November 1997, attributable at least in part to the concerted, successful Egyptian Government counterterrorist campaign. Previously, extremist groups have staged attacks on Egyptian Government officials, security forces, prominent individuals, and tourists. The violence in Israel and the Palestinian territories since October 2000 has not spilled over into Egypt, although demonstrations have occurred in various parts of the country in response to events there.
There were isolated incidents of vandalism of U.S.-linked businesses during anti-Israeli demonstrations in April 2002. There also has been a boycott campaign against American products motivated by perceptions of an American bias towards Israel in the conflict. The campaign had some impact on sales, chiefly of high profile U.S. franchise restaurants and locally produced, U.S.-branded consumer goods. The Government opposes the boycott and has publicly countered it by stressing the negative impact on Egyptian owners and workers. The overall security atmosphere for U.S. firms operating in Egypt remains excellent.
Marketing Strategies
Distribution Channel Options
Foreign firms can sell directly within Egypt if they are registered to make direct sales. Many do so as part of a manufacturing or assembly operation in Egypt. A few foreign firms use free zones or bonded warehouses to store goods and hire their own employees to sell door-to-door consumer goods, such as vacuum cleaners.
Most foreign firms, however, rely on Egyptian companies for wholesale and retail distribution, ensuring their effectiveness through staff training programs in Egypt and abroad, supplying short-term home office personnel to work with the Egyptian firm in Egypt, and making regular visits by marketing and technical support staff. Although the concept of “marketing”, as compared to simply selling, or waiting for the customer to find and come to you, is new to Egypt and weakly practiced, there are a growing number of good Egyptian firms who know what they are doing and how to market the products in which they specialize.
Egyptian commercial agents are required for foreign firm bids on most civilian government tenders. By contrast, commercial agents cannot be used to bid on military tenders, although use of Egyptian “consultants” may be allowed if the arrangement is properly structured. Commercial agents are optional when bidding on tenders issued by the petroleum companies, when selling to the private sector, or when selling under USAID-financed programs.
There are many choices for distributors, dealers, and agents in Egypt. There are a few firms with modern management, including “profit center” staff responsible for success in specialized departments. There are more traditional “general trader” type companies, some of which have developed a certain specialization (e.g., lumber, building products, canned goods, fresh and frozen meats), and some of which handle “everything”. Also, there are smaller firms specializing in only a few product lines or only a handful of foreign suppliers.
Many retailers of consumer goods tend to import their own needs directly, rather than pay high markups to wholesalers - sometimes a suitcase or trunk load at a time. A corollary is that many Egyptians prefer getting quotes directly from the overseas supplier rather than from the local agent, on the theory that the price will be better. This suggests that U.S. principals be sensitive to the role (and presumed cost) of their Egyptian agents. One way to strengthen that role is to refer customer inquiries back to the Egyptian agent, or to a regional representative outside Egypt.
Only registered commercial agents can work on government tenders. Often such persons have retired from the government agency to which they are now specialized in selling. This is especially common among persons selling to the military, security, and police agencies. In the extreme, some of these people literally operate out of their homes and have neither office nor staff, but they can be effective.
In Egypt, as elsewhere, the artistry of appointing a representative requires a blend of many concerns and decisions. Will your product line be prominently featured by the prospective agent, or will it just be added to a dusty shelf along with many other product lines? Is his influence with government decision-makers generational and therefore subject to decline as the years pass? Does he have children or trusted staff being groomed for responsibility?
Egyptian law requires that all commercial agents and importers have Egyptian nationality. (If it is a company, the chairman and all members of the board must be Egyptian, and it must be 100% Egyptian-owned.) Agents also must have resided continuously in Egypt for at least five years (with specified exceptions for expatriate Egyptians having an overseas work permit); be certified by a local chamber of commerce or professional association; not be a civil servant or worker in a public sector company (i.e., not moonlighting), nor a member of the People’s Assembly; not be a “first grade relative” (i.e., a member of the immediate family, or uncle, aunt, niece, or nephew) of a civil servant of the rank of Director General or higher or of a member of the People’s Assembly. (This prohibition against agents with family members in government is rarely enforced.) Public sector firms can be agents, as can private firms and individuals.
Distributor-type companies with any foreign ownership can market goods, including imported goods, in the following circumstances (although they cannot handle the import operation, per se):
General Partnership Companies or Limited Partnership Companies: In these types of companies, there may be a foreign partner, provided that the Egyptian partner(s) have at least 51% of the capital and the general manager or head of the company is an Egyptian national. In these instances, such a distributorship company cannot be an “importer” nor act as commercial agent unless it is 100% Egyptian owned and managed.
Limited Liability Company: A foreign partner in this type of distributorship company faces no limit on the percentage of ownership, provided that at least one manager of the company is an Egyptian national (there can be one or more managers depending upon the articles of incorporation), there are at least two shareholders or partners, and the capital of the company is not less than LE 50,000 (approximately $8,200). A distributorship company of this type also cannot be an “importer”, nor act as commercial agent.
Joint Stock Company: Provided that at least 49% of the shares are offered to Egyptians upon formation, foreign shareholders ultimately can own up to 100% of the company, provided that a majority of the board of directors are Egyptians, the capital of the company is not less than LE 250,000, and there are at least three shareholders. Again, a distributorship company of this type may not import or act as a commercial agent unless it is 100% Egyptian owned and managed.
Foreign firms which form a distributorship as mentioned above often permit the Egyptian partners to form a separate company to act as “importer” or agent. The latter delivers the goods to the distributorship company for marketing within Egypt.
Agents and Distributors
Egyptian law concerning commercial agency agreements is among the most liberal in the Middle East. The law is neutral concerning exclusivity, compensation is not required to cancel an agency and there is no minimum notification period for cancellation. There is no requirement that the agent authorize the import of the foreign principal’s products into Egypt, nor that the importation take place through the agent. (Importers of any product must be separately registered, under another law). Commercial agents must register the existence of their agency with the Ministry of Supply and Trade’s Commercial Registry Department, giving basic facts about the agreement, including the amount of commission to be received on sales. The foreign firm itself faces no local registration requirement. The commercial agency law is also neutral about dispute settlement procedures (leaving this to the parties to decide, preferably in writing at the time of appointment of the agent, and in advance of a dispute) and on the amount of commission due an agent.
Commission rates vary according to the type of product or service, volume of sales, and effort needed by the agent. The larger the volume of sales, the smaller the commission. for commodities such as rice, wheat, sugar, lumber or cotton, the commission ranges between 1-3%; for chemicals and foodstuffs 3-5%; for medical equipment, earthmoving equipment, office/business equipment, about 10%; and for expensive laboratory and scientific equipment, 15%. for major projects such as a complete civil engineering project, the commission is typically 1-3%. In tenders, the commission is calculated in the quoted bid. If a bidder reduces the bid price, the agent typically is asked to share in the reduction. Commission rates must be reported in bid packages for government tenders, with the government reserving the right to reduce any commission it deems extravagant. Commission rates also must be noted in the Ministry of Supply and Trade’s Commercial Registry documents signed by the Egyptian agent. Agent exclusivity is not required by law; the majority of U.S. firms have one or two Egyptian agents for different products, although a few have more.
Agencies can be split geographically and/or by product, although this is generally avoided in a country like Egypt, where activity is centralized around the capital city of Cairo. If there is a geographic split, it is generally Alexandria with or without the Delta cities on one hand, and Cairo and the Nile valley on the other. Agencies also can be split between private and public customers, with one agent specializing in tenders and another handling private sector customers. Agents often appoint subagents to cover smaller cities.
There is no special Egyptian secret to finding a partner. It is no more or no less difficult and personal in Egypt as anywhere else. Networking and lengthy investigation by the interested principal are necessary.
There are plenty of reputable, dynamic, educated, and far-sighted Egyptian entrepreneurs available in Egypt, and some reside overseas in London, Paris, or the United States. The best are on a par with those of senior management of major U.S. corporations, and they should never be underestimated in evaluating them or in negotiating with them.
In this search for an appropriate partner, the U.S. Mission in Egypt can be helpful through its network of contacts developed by the Commercial Service, Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Agency for International Development, the Office of Military Cooperation, the Embassy’s Economic-Political office, and others. The International Partner Search (IPS) program, offered by the U.S. Commercial Service, is designed to assist U.S. companies in finding appropriate local agents/distributors for their products. for further information, U.S. business representatives should contact the nearest Department of Commerce Export Assistance Center in the United States or the Commerce Department’s Trade Information Center at 1-800-USA-TRADE (1-800-872-87233).
Recommended business networks in Egypt include the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt (with branch offices now in Alexandria and Washington, DC) and various associations of Egyptian entrepreneurs including the Egyptian Businessmen’s Association, the Alexandria Business Association, the Federation of Egyptian Industries, and the Egyptian Exporters Association. There are investor committees in the large industrial cities of Tenth of Ramadan, Sixth of October, Borg El Arab, and a chamber in Ismailia promoting projects in the Sinai.
Franchising Activities
Franchising in Egypt has become quite popular in a short time, especially in the fast-food sector. Non-food franchises have a large market potential. A limited number of companies in the fields of hotel management, car rental, language education, health and fitness, electronics, and computer training are currently franchised in Egypt. A number of private companies are active in promoting awareness of the concept.
The Egyptian Franchise Development Association (EFDA), registered in September 2001, unifies franchisees and, among other activities, seeks to overcome the bureaucratic barriers this industry faces and cooperate on other activities of joint interest, such as training. With the help and participation of Egyptian Government officials, EFDA organizes a large and successful international franchise exhibition.
Egyptians themselves have begun franchising their own retail businesses to others, particularly clothing stores. This suggests that the franchise business concept, per se, is acceptable within the Egyptian cultural milieu and could be replicated in other business lines by interested firms.
Almost all the franchises now operating in Egypt are the result of an Egyptian entrepreneur approaching the foreigner, rather than the result of a marketing effort by the foreign firm. While this may show an entrepreneurial spirit among Egyptian businesspersons, it also highlights an attention gap on the part of foreign businessmen.
Direct Marketing Options
Direct marketing in Egypt such as catalog sales or television sales, tends to be problematic and is just beginning. for one reason, the use of credit cards or checking accounts drawn on foreign banks is not common in Egypt (although it is increasing). In addition, mailing goods into Egypt faces the risks of mail theft, loss in the airport mail warehouse, and arbitrary and high customs duties. Purchasing of goods through the Internet is limited for the same reasons, although the Egyptian Government is interested in e-commerce and is drafting e-commerce legislation.
Joint Ventures and Licensing Options
Egyptian entrepreneurs often prefer to have a foreign partner in a joint venture in Egypt. The foreigner supplies and ensures quality of the technology, as well as the “cachet” necessary to gain customer acceptance. Foreign equity in joint ventures can be as low as a few percentage points, depending upon mutual agreement. Egyptian Law No. 8 (Investment Incentives and Guarantees Law) allows foreign investors to own any amount, up to 100%, in projects in most sectors.
The details of joint venture or licensing agreements between Egyptians and their foreign partners are a matter of mutual agreement, defined by their contract, not by special law. Liberalized foreign exchange regulations since 1991 permit the free transfer abroad of profits and dividends. Invested capital may be repatriated without prior approval of the government’s investment authority, the General Authority for Investment and Free Zones (GAFI).
Technology licensing that does not involve “investment” in Egypt by the foreigner but that does involve using “process secrets” for manufacturing in Egypt must be approved by the Ministry of Industry’s General Organization for Industrialization (GOFI). Approval is not required for licensing agreements involving trademarks and technical know-how other than “process secrets”. A stiff withholding tax is levied on royalty payments unless a double taxation treaty exists. (There is a U.S.-Egyptian treaty for the avoidance of double taxation, which limits tax on royalty payments to 15% of the gross amount of such royalty.)
Numerous government and private companies have licensing agreements with foreign firms under which royalties and other fees are freely transferred abroad pursuant to individual corporate agreements. Examples of licensed production in Egypt include name-brand clothing, personal care products, kitchen utensils, pistols, laser alignment equipment, and military vehicles. Service licenses include diving training, and franchised services including personal care and restaurants.
Inadequate patent protection has been so far the biggest barrier to licensing in Egypt.
Some U.S. investors have looked to Egypt as an investment site so as to be able to benefit from U.S. Government procurement preferences. Under the U.S. Federal Acquisition Regulations (FAR), Egypt is a “designated country” (among many others) from which certain goods theoretically could be procured by the U.S. Government as if they were made in America. However, this rule does not apply because the FAR requires such countries to sign the GATT/WTO Procurement Code, and Egypt has not done so yet.
Organizational Structure and Management in Egypt
Most decision-making in Egypt is top-down and generally made by one person or a small handful of top managers. Delegation typically consists of giving and implementing orders. Nonetheless, many middle managers are effective, educated, intelligent, and do not like to be overlooked. They should not be minimized or underestimated. American visitors/negotiators need to greet middle managers politely and enhance their status in front of their superiors. Such efforts pay off in favorable treatment of paperwork and other work processes and reduce bureaucratic obfuscation. Managers of firms in Egypt say they typically spend 30% of their time dealing with Egyptian bureaucracy.
Creating a Sales Office
As in any other country, seek early legal counsel from one or more attorneys and tax counsel from a professional accounting/auditing firm. Lists of such firms are available on the Internet from the Commercial Service Web site in Egypt (www.buyusa.gov/egypt).
Bureaucracy has flourished in Egypt since the time of the Pharaohs. A newcomer’s biggest and never-ending challenge is to learn, preferably in advance, what laws affect him/her and how to cope with them. Many of the laws reflect Egypt’s socialist government of the 1950s-1970s and, if interpreted literally, do not favor private enterprise. However, newer laws and the policy of today’s government favor entrepreneurship and the free market economy. Tension between political desire favoring entrepreneurs and bureaucratic reliance on old laws-on-the-books continues. There are two alternative legal routes for a foreign company to invest in Egypt: through Law 159 of 1981 or Law 8 of 1997. Companies Law 159 offers generally fewer privileges to foreign investors than Investment Law 8.
Selling Strategies
Egyptians with whom an American will deal in business are often trilingual (English-French-Arabic), well-traveled individuals who pride themselves on ferreting out good deals at decent prices. Mid-level government officials with whom a foreigner may deal may be less sophisticated and less well traveled, but no less able to negotiate.
Cairo is the cultural (as opposed to religious) capital of the Arab world, as well as the political capital of Egypt. Thousands of affluent Arab tourists and investors travel to Cairo often throughout the year, enjoying the cinema, theater, television, live performances, and relaxed lifestyle not generally available in some other Middle East countries. Many of these persons have second or vacation homes and apartments in Egypt, as well as factories and real estate investments. Foreign suppliers/marketers are beginning to take advantage of Egypt as a locale from which to market to its audience of wealthy Arab visitors.
Some 18 million of the estimated 70 million Egyptians live in the greater Cairo metropolitan area. Seven million live in Alexandria permanently, and its population increases by 50% in the summer as vacationers flood in. Numerous important secondary cities offer market opportunities for agricultural, industrial, and consumer goods in the Delta (Tanta, Damietta, Mansoura, Mehalla el Kubra, Damanhour, Benha, Zagazig); along the Suez Canal (Port Said, Ismailia, and Suez); and along the Nile south to Upper Egypt (Assiut, Minia, Sohag, Qena, Luxor, Aswan).
Negotiatio
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