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Executive Report on Strategies in Kazakhstan
ICON Group International, June 2007, Pages: 373
How to Strategically Evaluate Kazakhstan
Perhaps the most efficient way of evaluating Kazakhstan is to consider key dimensions which themselves are composites of multiple factors. Composite portfolio approaches have long been used by strategic planners. The biggest challenge in this approach is to choose the appropriate factors that are the most relevant to international planning. The two measures of greatest relevance are “latent demand” and “market accessibility”. The figure below summarizes the key dimensions and recommendations of such an approach. Using these two composites, one can prioritize all countries of the world. Countries of high latent demand and high relative accessibility (e.g. easier entry for one firm compared to other firms) are given highest priority. The figure below shows two different scenarios. Accessibility is defined as a firm’s ease of entering or supplying from or to a market (the “supply side”), and latent demand is an indicator of the potential in serving from or to the market (the “demand side”).
Framework for Prioritizing Countries
Demand/Market Potential Driven Firm
Relative Accessibility
Accessibility/Supply Averse Firm
Relative Accessibility
In the top figure, the firm is driven by market potential, whereas the bottom figure represents a firm that is driven by costs or by an aversion to difficult markets. This report treats the reader as coming from a “generic firm” approaching the global market - neither a market-driven nor a cost-driven company. Planners must therefore augment this report with their own company-specific factors that might change the priorities (e.g. a Canadian firm may have higher accessibility in Canada than a German firm).
Latent Demand and Accessibility in Kazakhstan
This report provides an extremely detailed overview of factors driving latent demand and accessibility in Kazakhstan. Latent demand is largely driven by economic fundamentals. But, latent demand only represents half of the picture. A country may at first sight appear to be attractive due to a high latent demand, but it is often less attractive when one considers at the macro level how easy it might be to serve that entire potential and/or general business risks.
Chapter 2 deals with macro-accessibility. While accessibility will always vary from one company to another for a given country, the following domains are typically considered when evaluating macro-accessibility in Kazakhstan:
Openness to Trade in Kazakhstan
Openness to Direct Investment in Kazakhstan
Local Marketing and Entry Strategy Alternatives
Local Human Resources
Local Risks
Across these domains, a number of not-so-obvious factors can affect accessibility and risk. These are also covered in Chapter 2, which is presented from the perspective of an American firm, though it is equally applicable to most firms entering Kazakhstan. This chapter has been authored by local offices of the U.S. Government. I have included a number of edits to clarify the provided information as it relates to the general strategic framework.
In Chapter 3, I summarize the economic potential for Kazakhstan over the next five years for hundreds of industries, categories, and products. The goal of this chapter is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or latent demand, represented by Kazakhstan when defined as an area of dominant influence. The data presented are the result of various spatial econometric and time-series forecasting models which, for each category presented, are applied to forecast and allocate latent demand across all countries of the world and major distribution centers or centers of dominant influence within each country. This is accomplished knowing that economic fundamentals (e.g. income) generally vary from one country to another within a given country over time. In this chapter, I report the allocation for each category for Kazakhstan as an area of dominant influence in Europe and, potentially, the world.
As a whole, this report presents a strategic assessment of Kazakhstan by considering an extremely broad set of factors affecting both latent demand and accessibility, as outlined in the following chapters.
MACRO-ACCESSIBILITY IN KAZAKHSTAN
Economic Fundamentals and Dynamics
Kazakhstan instituted an ambitious pension reform program in 1998. By 1999, contributors were placing more money in privately managed investment funds than in the State-run fund. The National Bank oversees and regulates the pension funds. The pension funds’ growing demand for quality investment outlets triggered rapid development of the debt securities market. Pension fund capital is being invested almost exclusively in corporate and government bonds, including Government of Kazakhstan Eurobonds.
The Kazakhstan Securities Exchange (KASE), in which the government hoped the majority of pension fund assets would be invested, has been slow to develop since its founding in 1997. Inadequate financial records prevent many companies from being put on the exchange. Moreover, company managers fear diluting control of their enterprises by selling more shares.
Government Intervention Risks
The President takes a leading role in setting economic policy. Many major economic policies have been initiated by presidential decree. Apart from the Presidency, the National Bank is the most significant institutional actor.
Thousands of small and medium-sized enterprises have been privatized, along with many large-scale state companies. Many of Kazakhstan’s major oil companies are now privately controlled. The same is true of its mining and metallurgical enterprises. But a large proportion of important assets still remain fully or partially in state hands, including the national oil and gas company, the railroads, and a significant share of the telecommunications sector. These account for about one-third of GDP.
The new Land Law, which was adopted in June 2003, allows Kazakhstani citizens and local companies to own agricultural land and urban land associated with residential or commercial buildings. The law also allows Kazakhstanis to lease government-owned land for a term of up to 49 years. When foreign firms lease agricultural land, this maximum is limited to 10 years. However, foreigners (individuals or companies) may also own agricultural land through a Kazakhstan-registered joint venture or a full subsidiary.
Infrastructure Development
Kazakhstan’s geographical position -- landlocked in the center of Eurasia -- makes it dependent on transport links through neighboring countries to deliver its goods to world markets. Kazakhstan’s railroad system is linked to Europe via Russia, to the Persian Gulf via Iran, and to the Pacific Rim via China and Russia. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) financed recent improvements to the Caspian port of Aktau, from where oil and bulk goods are shipped across the Caspian. Regular flights connect Kazakhstan with Europe and some Asian countries. Four major carriers (British Airways, KLM, Lufthansa, and Turkish Airlines) operate regular flights to Almaty.
Transportation Network Statistics
Railroads -- 14,500 kilometers
Roads (paved) -- 88,600 kilometers
Navigable waterways -- 4,000 kilometers
Telecommunications
The biggest challenge for telecommunications in Kazakhstan is its small population spread over a vast territory. Less than 20% of households in Kazakhstan have a telephone. The density of regular phones lines is 14 phones per 100 people. There is a great disparity between densities of urban and rural communications networks. 44% of the population lives in rural areas but only 18% of telephones are installed in the countryside.
The state-controlled telecommunications company Kazakhtelecom is actively building a fully digital national telecommunications network based on digital local and long-distance switches and fiber-optic lines linking all major cities of the country. In addition, companies like Kazakhstan’s national railroad company and KazTransCom, a subsidiary of national oil company KazMunayGas, are using existing transport networks to lay fiber optic and other communications lines, positioning themselves to compete in a deregulated market as well as serving their own companies’ communications needs. Kazakhtelecom is expanding its service to rural and remote areas through DAMA-technology satellite communication stations. There are also several private telecom companies in Kazakhstan that cover one-third of the market.
A dozen companies provide dial-up and leased line (ADSL) Internet access in cities throughout Kazakhstan. A very small, but rapidly growing portion of Kazakhstan’s population is using the Internet.
Political Risks
Economic Relationship with the United States
The United States has an extensive series of assistance programs in Kazakhstan, all dedicated to progress on goals shared by the two countries. Since 1992, the Agency for International Development (USAID) has administered more than $355 million in technical assistance programs in Kazakhstan. These programs include support for the growth of the Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) sector, privatization, banking, fiscal and financial policy, commercial law and judicial reform; support for democratic institutions and culture, independent media, local government and non-governmental organizations and conflict mitigation; management of energy and water resources; primary health care reform, and combating infectious disease, including TB and HIV/AIDS. The Departments of State and Justice sponsor law enforcement and counter-narcotics training and assistance. The State Department also provides support to independent media and manages an active exchange program. The Commercial Service (the overseas branch of the Department of Commerce) manages a program for U.S. business internships for Kazakhstanis, supports Kazakhstani businesses through a matchmaker program, and disseminates information on U.S. goods and services. The Peace Corps has more than 140 volunteers working throughout Kazakhstan in secondary schools and universities and in local non-governmental organizations.
Politics and the Business Environment
The major political issues affecting the business climate are:
Corruption
Legislation intended to support Kazakhstani employment and business, but implemented in ways harmful to foreign investors, and
Uneven enforcement of laws and doubtful court decisions, often apparently politically motivated
The Political System
Kazakhstan has a centralized political system with a strong presidency. The country is divided into 16 administrative divisions -- 14 oblasts and 2 principal municipalities -- which are the equivalents of American states. The 16 Akims, who are the equivalents of American governors and mayors, are appointed by the President and report directly to him. Maslikhats, the equivalents of American state legislatures, are indirectly elected, but weak since they lack budgetary authority.
Kazakhstan is a constitutional republic with a strong presidency. A 1995 referendum, held after President Nazarbayev dissolved the Parliament, approved a new constitution that concentrates power in the presidency, permitting it to dominate the parliament, judiciary, and local government.
The President is the head of state. He is also the commander-in-chief of the armed forces and has the ability to send legislation that has been passed by the Parliament to the Constitutional Council for review. In 1996, the President created a State Committee on Investments to manage new direct investment in “priority sectors.” The Committee, which initially reported directly to the President, was made part of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2001. The Prime Minister, who serves at the pleasure of the President, chairs the Cabinet of Ministers and serves as Kazakhstan’s head of government. In 1997, the President ordered a major restructuring of the government, resulting in significant reductions in the number of governmental bodies and government staff. There are three Deputy Prime Ministers, 14 Ministers, and 11 chairmen of state agencies.
Kazakhstan has a bicameral parliament, comprised of a lower house (the Mazhilis) and upper house (the Senate). The 77-seat Mazhilis is directly elected by single mandate districts, with 10 members elected by party-list vote. The Senate has 39 members; thirty-two chosen by indirect election. Two senators are selected by elected assemblies (Maslikhats) of Kazakhstan’s 16 principal administrative divisions. The President appoints the remaining 7 senators. Mazhilis deputies and the government both have the right of legislative initiative, though most legislation is proposed by the government.
Political parties have played little role in politics, where personal and family ties are more important, although a new opposition party, Ak Zhol (White Road) is gaining influence. The Law on Political Parties enacted in July 2002 raised minimum membership requirements to 50,000 and required all existing parties to re-register by January 2003. Only seven parties met the new, tougher criteria to qualify for registration.
Marketing Strategies
Creating a Sales Office
Registration with the Ministry of Justice is the first step to establishing an office. The process requires development of a package of documents, including, but not limited to, application for registration, by-laws of the entity to be registered, and by-laws of the foreign partner of the joint venture. The registration process should take no more than 15 days but in reality it might take much longer. Usually the reason for delay is submission of an incomplete package of registration materials or a subjective interpretation of the requirements. Turning in all requested materials from the start will facilitate processing. There is also a registration fee that varies depending on the type of organization being registered (normally around $200).
Renovated, Western-style office space rents for $15-$50 per square meter per month in Almaty and $10-$30 per square meter per month in other major cities. Domestic telephone service is poor but getting better; international service is reliable in major cities but expensive. Most U.S. business representatives prefer to use cellular phone service, which is widely used in major population centers throughout Kazakhstan. Office equipment (fax machines, telephones, photocopiers), parts and service are readily available in Almaty.
While Almaty remains the country’s commercial capital, an increasing number of U.S. and foreign firms are establishing satellite offices in Astana due to the importance of government relations. U.S. firms have generally bought renovated apartments in Astana, with costs of $15,000-50,000 for a decent office/apartment layout. The Intercontinental Astana Hotel offers ready-made Western-style office space with fully equipped business facilities. Since construction in Astana continues at a breakneck pace, companies should get updates on availability of office space.
Companies interested in working in the oil sector, as well as various types of sub-contractors fo r the oil majors, may consider opening representative offices in Atyrau or other cities in Western Kazakhstan located near major oil fields. There is a lack of quality office space in Atyrau and most of the companies tend to establish offices in apartments. As in Astana, office/apartment facilities can cost anywhere from $15,000-50,000.
With the exception of Almaty, it is difficult to find a professional English-speaking labor pool in Kazakhstan’s cities. Moreover, finding local managers with Western work experience and a business education is still a rarity - even in Almaty. Training is an essential component to any start-up operation here.
Joint Ventures and Licensing Options
Currently, there are more than 1,500 joint ventures registered in Kazakhstan, according to the Legal Entities Registration Department of the Ministry of Justice. Joint ventures may be organized as a limited liability partnership or a joint stock company. In some cases, such as a particular privatization deal, a joint venture structure may be required as a part of the tender package.
According to the 1995 Law on Registration of Legal Entities, all legal entities created in Kazakhstan, irrespective of the form of their incorporation and founding partners, are subject to state registration. The Ministry of Justice of is in charge of registration of all legal enterprises and organizations.
Agents and Distributors
Finding a reliable, credit-worthy partner in Kazakhstan requires due diligence, caution, and attention to a potential partner’s achievements and reputation. U.S. firms are advised to verify trade references offered by potential partners, check banking records and correspondent account capability with Western banks, and verify the personal bona fides of key company officers.
Local companies in Kazakhstan are sensitive to pricing and contract financing terms. That is why when entering the market it is necessary to balance sales opportunities with the risk of non-payment. It is advisable to start transactions on an irrevocable letter of credit basis. A trading relationship should be developed over time. Project financing opportunities offered by a U.S. company will increase the likelihood and potential amount of transactions.
Hiring Local Counsel
Competent counsel, either Western or Kazakhstani, is critical for both understanding this challenging market and protecting your investment. Kazakhstan is still building its judicial system. Until this process is complete, the performance of courts in the country will be less than optimal. Further problems exist in having a judgment enforced. A judicial enforcement system is only beginning to be established by the Ministry of Justice. Given this level of development, it is possible that interference in judicial cases by private parties or by government officials will sometimes occur.
General commercial law principles are established in Kazakhstan’s Civil Code. The General Provisions of the Civil Code were adopted in 1994; the Specific Provisions were passed by the Parliament in 1999. The General Provisions were amended several times between 1995 and 1998. Commercial law development is ongoing, which underlines the recommendation to retain strong legal counsel.
There are currently 11 U.S. law firms operating in Kazakhstan. In addition to expatriate staff, most employ local attorneys or work with a local firm. The major U.S. accounting firms have offices in Almaty that provide accounting services and business consulting. They also offer services in tax matters, payroll, employee benefits, and registration.
Checking Bona Fides
U.S. companies wishing to establish any other sort of business relationship with a Kazakhstani company should find out as much about a potential partner as possible. However, as in many developing countries, reliable factual information on prospective business partners is hard to come by. This is another area where the experience and market knowledge of a locally established legal, accounting or consulting firm can reward a foreign business.
Distribution Channel Options
Over the past five years, distribution and telecommunications networks have been diversified and upgraded, shifting major marketing challenges from purely geographic to legislative and regulatory zones. U.S. companies in Kazakhstan use a combination of marketing methods, including distributing or direct sales; working through a country-wide distributor or agent; working through more than one local-area distributor or agent; and/or distributing or selling products directly from a warehouse. Distribution channels still require extensive training/service support and project financing (such as leasing schemes for equipment).
Most of Kazakhstan’s population is concentrated in two geographic areas: the southeast (Almaty, Southern Kazakhstan, and Zhambyl Oblasts) and the north/northeast (Akmola, Karaganda, Kustanai, northern Kazakhstan, Pavlodar, and eastern Kazakhstan oblasts). Average incomes are higher in these regions than in other parts of the country. The economic development of oil-rich Western regions of Kazakhstan has expanded the economies of the largest towns there, principally Uralsk, Atyrau, and Aktau.
Franchising Activities
While the small population and low population density of Kazakhstan limit franchising opportunities, and franchising mechanisms are still not widely understood, we believe that the idea has significant potential for development. This has been borne out by the creation of a new law on franchising, and the formation of a franchising association.
Local experts believe that the following industries have the best short-term potential for franchising: food processing (especially those which target regions being developed by foreign oil companies), fast food (in the three or four largest cities), hotels and motels, and auto parts/service.
Any franchising contract should be carefully drafted because judges in Kazakhstan are not familiar with this area of law. In fact, the new law on franchising doesn’t even use the term, but retains the old-fashioned term “complex business partnership.” The law has other weaknesses as well.
Direct Marketing Options
Direct marketing is becoming more common in Kazakhstan, especially in larger cities such as Almaty and Astana. A popular form of direct marketing is distribution of free samples at points of sale, major cultural events, and door-to-door. Marketing by mail is generally not used due to Kazakhstan’s unreliable postal system.
There are more than a dozen local and several Western advertising firms in Almaty. Television, outdoor advertising, and general-interest publications represent primary advertising channels for consumer goods. Advertising of services and general image promotion are usually done using outdoor advertising and personal sales.
Selling Strategies
Transportation costs, product pricing, project financing, and established trade relations are important considerations for U.S. companies looking at the Kazakhstani market. Kazakhstan’s handful of major cities should be considered first as potential markets for consumer products, since they are well-connected to the country’s transportation system and their populations generally have greater purchasing power. U.S. products have a good reputation here, but competition is growing. U.S. firms must provide customer support and a reliable supply of products to their distributors. Distribution networks within Kazakhstan cover great distances because of the country’s vast size (equivalent in area to all of Western Europe). Transportation costs from the U.S. are significant (approximately $3,000-5,000 for a 20-foot container shipped to Kazakhstan from the U.S. eastern seaboard). This affects the price competitiveness of U.S.-made products. Selling in Kazakhstan differs from other markets and detailed marketing surveys should be prepared before launching a product.
Pricing Issues
Western consumer products are relatively more expensive than competing goods produced in Southeast Asia or Russia and are not easily affordable for the average Kazakhstani consumer. Key components of the price that should be considered by a U.S. company include transport costs, duties associated with import (customs duties and fees, certification payments, etc.), VAT and high expectations of profits by importers/distributors.
The overall trade-weighted import tariff is around 10%; however, other aspects of border-crossing procedures represent more significant problems. The biggest challenge is that customs regulations tend to change. Procedures, lists of goods that are subject to mandatory licensing, and other technical issues are under constant revision and customs officials on the spot tend to use regulations selectively and arbitrarily.
Another factor affecting price and competitiveness of imported products is that the value-added tax of 16%, despite a welcome reduction from the previous rate of 20%, now has to be paid on top of all customs duties and excise taxes at the time of customs clearance. Considering all the difficulties associated with customs clearance procedures importers are advised to use the services of customs brokers.
Conditions demand that U.S. companies take into account strong competition from Russian, Southeast Asian, and European producers. Consumers in Kazakhstan are very sensitive to prices and quality of the goods supplied. Most consumers are willing to pay premiums for uniqueness or higher quality. However, higher than average prices have to be justified by brand names, marketing or special features.
Licensing and Certification Options
Licensing has been identified as an obstacle to investment and trade in Kazakhstan. Many economic activities are subject to licensing and there is an extensive list of goods that are subject to licensing in case of import or transit through the territory of Kazakhstan. Licensing procedures are often slow and non-transparent representing an added cost to doing business here. There are several government agencies that have licensing authority.
Additional challenges are represented by certification procedures that might take up to two months in cases of import operations. It is strongly recommended to plan for these difficulties while negotiating a sales contract. The local counterpart has to be willing to provide timely information about licensing and certification requirements. Prominent customs brokers or professional service providers can also help to deal with these types of regulatory problems.
Advertising and Trade Promotion
Print and television are among the most popular means of advertising in Kazakhstan. The Russian-language weekly “Karavan” is the most-widely read newspaper and one of the best for advertising mass consumption goods. Another Russian-language newspapers in which U.S. firms might also consider advertising in the weekly “Panorama,” which carries current economic, political, and business articles of interest to the business community. The English-language “Almaty Herald” is widely read by the foreign community. The most popular TV channels in Almaty are: ORT (countrywide), Khabar (countrywide), KTK (countrywide), and Channel 31(15 larger cities). There have been complaints about sharply rising television advertising costs in recent years. Radio, billboard, and transport (buses and trams) advertising opportunities are also commonly used. U.S. firms may wish to consult with one of the several international advertising and public relations firms operating here.
Kazakhstan has several trade shows throughout the year. The largest is the Kazakhstan International Oil and Gas Exhibition (KIOGE) held every October in Almaty. Other scheduled events include: Consumer Expo (April); the Kazakhstan International Health Exhibition (KIHE) (May); a transportation conference and exhibition (May); the Kazakhstan International Telecommunications Exhibition (KITEL) (June); and a power and energy exhibition (KAZPOWER) (September).
Public Sector Marketing
The 1997 Law on State Procurement provides foreign bidders with enhanced access to government tenders, assurances of national and most-favored-nation treatment, and international standards of transparency and public accountability. However, what appears in print and what happens in practice can be very different. Short deadlines for tenders (suggesting a pre-selected supplier), a lack of transparency in business dealings, and serious non-payment issues constitute a challenging commercial environment. U.S. companies are advised to approach any government contract with due caution. However, lucrative opportunities do exist and U.S. companies have had successes in Kazakhstan. U.S. companies should be wary of payment-after-service arrangements and use payment schemes providing additional guarantees of timely payments. Not doing so puts any U.S. firm at risk, with little recourse in the Kazakhstani judicial system.
Supplying Customer Service
Strong customer support and service add value in Kazakhstan. In a country where the practice of customer service is developing but still leaves much to be desired, providing after-sales service (either directly or through a trained local representative) can make a lasting difference. U.S. companies should be prepared to commit resources to customer-service training for local staff. This is extremely important when selling vehicles, construction, and other equipment. Due to the considerable time difference between Kazakhstan and the U.S., companies should consider using 24-hour lines, or existing customer support centers in Asia, Russia or Europe where support centers in Kazakhstan are not economically justified.
Leasing
Adoption of the Law on Leasing in 2000 paved the way for development of leasing services in Kazakhstan. Currently, there are several leasing companies working in the market with the leading positions being taken by BTA Leasing and Halyk Leasing. Both of the companies are owned and supported by two major Kazakhstani banks, TuranAlem Bank (BTA Leasing) and Halyk Bank (Halyk Leasing), that have established international credit ratings and correspondent relations with major Western banks.
Working with leasing companies can favorably distinguish U.S. companies from competition and provide valuable project financing opportunities for their clients. Two schemes particularly warrant close attention: sub-leasing and support of the U.S. company’s bank. Sub-leasing implies that the local leasing company will lease products from a U.S. company and then sub-lease the products to a local company, thus lowering the risk of non-payment. The second provides for financing being given by the U.S. company’s bank to a Kazakhstani leasing company (against a guarantee from the local bank or a counter guarantee from a correspondent U.S. bank). In its turn, the local leasing company will use the funds specifically to purchase products from the designated U.S. company and then will lease the goods to a Kazakhstani customer.
Import and Export Regulation Risks
Trade Barrier Risks
Structural Barriers
Shortage of domestic capital to finance investment and imports, lack of an effective judicial process for breach-of-contract resolution, logistical difficulties of serving the Kazakhstani market, and an unwieldy government bureaucracy. The government’s organizational scheme is set out in a Presidential Decree “On the Structure of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan” signed on October 12, 1999.
Service Barriers
According to law on insurance dated January 2, 2001, overall capital of all foreign insurance companies should not exceed 25% in the non-life insurance market and 50% in the life insurance market. Foreign companies can operate through joint ventures with Kazakhstani companies or as a 100% foreign company. Amendments to the oil and gas law require that oil companies purchase services only from Kazakhstani-based companies unless the required service is unavailable in Kazakhstan.
Investment Barriers
The 2001 Land Law prohibits private ownership of the following types of land: agricultural land, defense industry land, specially protected territories, forests and springs, communal use lands, and uninhabited areas. Foreign firms can obtain leasing rights to land only through a domestic partner and only for a maximum of 49 years. Moreover, when foreign firms lease agricultural land, this maximum is limited to 10 years. Foreign companies and joint ventures cannot transfer agricultural land to a third party “for secondary use” (i.e. for sublease).
Tariffs
Kazakhstan has no export tariffs. The overall average trade-weighted import tariff rates are approximately 9%. The low average import tariffs are due to the fact that trade with Russia -- Kazakhstan’s major trade partner -- is duty-free pursuant to their membership in the five-country Eurasian Economic Community, which was established in 2001 as a successor to the Customs Union between Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. On July 1, 2001, Kazakhstan began charging a 16% value-added tax (VAT) based on destination principle.
Customs Procedures
A new customs code was passed in April 2003. On balance, the code does not represent an improvement over the previous code. It remains overly complicated, and does not encourage transparency or the expeditious movement of goods.
Kazakhstan’s customs v
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