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Executive Report on Strategies in Ukraine
ICON Group International, June 2007, Pages: 375
How to Strategically Evaluate Ukraine
Perhaps the most efficient way of evaluating Ukraine is to consider key dimensions which themselves are composites of multiple factors. Composite portfolio approaches have long been used by strategic planners. The biggest challenge in this approach is to choose the appropriate factors that are the most relevant to international planning. The two measures of greatest relevance are “latent demand” and “market accessibility”. The figure below summarizes the key dimensions and recommendations of such an approach. Using these two composites, one can prioritize all countries of the world. Countries of high latent demand and high relative accessibility (e.g. easier entry for one firm compared to other firms) are given highest priority. The figure below shows two different scenarios. Accessibility is defined as a firm’s ease of entering or supplying from or to a market (the “supply side”), and latent demand is an indicator of the potential in serving from or to the market (the “demand side”).
Framework for Prioritizing Countries
Demand/Market Potential Driven Firm
Relative Accessibility
Accessibility/Supply Averse Firm
Relative Accessibility
In the top figure, the firm is driven by market potential, whereas the bottom figure represents a firm that is driven by costs or by an aversion to difficult markets. This report treats the reader as coming from a “generic firm” approaching the global market - neither a market-driven nor a cost-driven company. Planners must therefore augment this report with their own company-specific factors that might change the priorities (e.g. a Canadian firm may have higher accessibility in Canada than a German firm).
Latent Demand and Accessibility in Ukraine
This report provides an extremely detailed overview of factors driving latent demand and accessibility in Ukraine. Latent demand is largely driven by economic fundamentals. But, latent demand only represents half of the picture. A country may at first sight appear to be attractive due to a high latent demand, but it is often less attractive when one considers at the macro level how easy it might be to serve that entire potential and/or general business risks.
Chapter 2 deals with macro-accessibility. While accessibility will always vary from one company to another for a given country, the following domains are typically considered when evaluating macro-accessibility in Ukraine:
Openness to Trade in Ukraine
Openness to Direct Investment in Ukraine
Local Marketing and Entry Strategy Alternatives
Local Human Resources
Local Risks
Across these domains, a number of not-so-obvious factors can affect accessibility and risk. These are also covered in Chapter 2, which is presented from the perspective of an American firm, though it is equally applicable to most firms entering Ukraine. This chapter has been authored by local offices of the U.S. Government. I have included a number of edits to clarify the provided information as it relates to the general strategic framework.
In Chapter 3, I summarize the economic potential for Ukraine over the next five years for hundreds of industries, categories, and products. The goal of this chapter is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or latent demand, represented by Ukraine when defined as an area of dominant influence. The data presented are the result of various spatial econometric and time-series forecasting models which, for each category presented, are applied to forecast and allocate latent demand across all countries of the world and major distribution centers or centers of dominant influence within each country. This is accomplished knowing that economic fundamentals (e.g. income) generally vary from one country to another within a given country over time. In this chapter, I report the allocation for each category for Ukraine as an area of dominant influence in Europe and, potentially, the world.
As a whole, this report presents a strategic assessment of Ukraine by considering an extremely broad set of factors affecting both latent demand and accessibility, as outlined in the following chapters.
MACRO-ACCESSIBILITY IN UKRAINE
Economic Fundamentals and Dynamics
The government has recently been successful in efforts to achieve macroeconomic stability, but Ukraine still needs structural reforms such as privatization, tax reform, and contract enforcement. For several years, Ukraine has maintained a current account surplus and a fiscal deficit. Until recently, the Government financed fiscal deficits through a combination sales of Treasury bill sales to domestic and foreign entities, loans from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), assistance from international financial institutions (IFIs), and accumulation of wage, pension, and energy arrears. However, NBU financing of fiscal deficits is now illegal, and the government is meeting its current wage and pension obligations and has largely paid off pension arrears.
Ukraine’s industry suffers from lack of modernization. Sixty percent of industrial equipment is aged or obsolete, and Ukraine’s industrial capacity utilization is only 50 percent.
Political Risks
Economic Relationship with the United States
A stable, independent, democratic, and market-oriented Ukraine that is fully integrated into the Euro-Atlantic community is in the U.S. national interest. The United States unreservedly supports Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity and is providing substantial technical assistance to help Ukraine make the changes necessary to solidify a democratic society based on rule-of-law, to reform the economy, and to integrate with the world economic system.
Starting in late 1993, the United States and Ukraine began to develop closer economic and commercial ties. The U.S. pursued broad engagement with Ukraine across all fields and at all levels. The U.S. economic assistance program for Ukraine became one of the largest American aid programs in the world after 1994. Funds granted through the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, targeted to assist in the elimination of nuclear weapon systems and infrastructure in Ukraine, supported efforts to build an export control system and protect against proliferation.
The two countries maintain regular working contacts and programs in trade, investment and economic reform; foreign policy; defense reform and nonproliferation; and law enforcement. Both sides have paid special attention to improving the foreign investment climate in Ukraine, addressing specific business disputes and removing obstacles to the development of new business ventures.
Politics and the Business Environment
Ukraine’s progress toward developing a democratic state based on the rule of law has been unsteady. Ukraine’s first post-Soviet Constitution did not definitively resolve the formal division of powers among the three branches of government. The Ukrainian parliament (Verkhovna Rada) passed a new Constitution on June 28, 1996. The Constitution recognizes the right to private ownership of land and property, strengthens provisions on the rule-of-law, and provides for a more independent judiciary, promising more effective legal protection for investors. Additionally, it has codified fundamental rights of free speech, freedom of the press and assembly, and freedom of religion for all Ukrainians.
Lack of legislation in many areas of economic activity, as well as the absence of a reliable system to enforce existing legislation, are obstacles to achieving an investment climate that will attract substantial foreign investment. Questions regarding land purchase by foreigners, privatization conditions, and taxation reform remain untested.
Corruption and crime inhibit legitimate business activity and foreign investment in Ukraine. There is a broad understanding of these problems but translating that consensus into law is one of the most important challenges facing the Ukrainian political system today. Ensuring that these laws are effectively executed is a considerable challenge.
The Political System
The political center is dominated by pro-presidential parties controlled by “oligarchs”. These parties include the SPDU(u), Regions of Ukraine and Labor Ukraine. Other pro-presidential groups in the center include the National Democratic Party (NDP), the Agrarians and several factions not based on specific parties. These pro-Presidential factions constitute the majority in parliament. Four factions, ranging from the moderate right to the left of the political spectrum, form the opposition. On the right are a number of moderate nationalist parties including Rukh, the Ukrainian People’s Party and Reforms and Order, all of whom are now part of the Our Ukraine faction. The centrist Solidarity party is also a member of the Our Ukraine faction. On the left are the Communists (the second largest faction in parliament) and the Socialists; both parties are in the opposition.
The prime minister is appointed and dismissed by the president, although his/her appointment is subject to parliamentary approval. The prime minister nominates and the president appoints the members of the Cabinets of Ministers.
Ukraine’s presidency remains the pre-eminent post in the Ukrainian government and economic and legal reform is primarily dependent on the president’s support. The President is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and has the power to veto legislation. The parliament may override presidential vetoes by a two-thirds vote. Under the Constitution, Ukrainians hold presidential elections every five years.
Marketing Strategies
Distribution Channel Options
The sheer geographic size of Ukraine and its relatively high level of population dispersion (only slightly over 10 percent of Ukraine’s population lives in the three largest cities) make establishing a viable, reliable distribution network of great importance. Major U.S. companies such as Coca-Cola, Kraft-Jacobs-Suchard, Mars, PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble, SC Johnson (Johnson Wax and Tambrands), and McDonald’s have developed strong sales and service networks in Ukraine, which strengthens their market-share potential. While some of the larger firms use their own internal customs clearance and distribution networks, several smaller companies use freight forwarders for distributing products. In addition, indigenous Ukrainian food manufacturers, such as Svitoch (confectionery), Obolon (brewery), Slavutych (brewery), and Chumak (a Ukrainian-Swedish vegetable cannery), are developing excellent widespread distribution networks.
In exporting directly from the United States to Ukraine, the least expensive and most reliable means of transport is by sea, through 18 marine ports in Ukraine, including Odessa, Illichevsk, and Mariupol. Rail is another cheap, but less reliable, method of shipping products throughout the country. Rail traffic has fallen substantially since Ukrainian independence and minimal backups at crossing points make rail transport an interesting alternative to other forms of transport. Nearly 23,000 kilometers of railway connect Ukraine with Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary, as well as with eastern and northern points of the NIS.
The most popular, efficient, and costly means of transporting goods within Ukraine is by overland truck. Numerous domestic and international freight-forwarders and shipping companies provide service to a number of commercial and diplomatic entities in Ukraine, although price is a factor that U.S. companies should consider. The Ukrainian commercial infrastructure has matured rapidly as of recent years. Western-style distribution networks are developing in the country. During the last several years, a network of chain stores, brand name stores and supermarkets has emerged. They are usually located in the downtown areas of cities and are owned by Ukrainian or foreign private entrepreneurs. Although there is some competition among newly emerged distribution outlets and old-fashioned stores, each caters to the demands of a different group of consumers.
One advantage of dealing with wholesalers is that they can handle the certification and license procedures for imported products. Generally, department stores add 25% to the cost of general consumer products and 5% to audio-video goods and home appliances. The share of domestically produced products in Ukrainian stores varies anywhere from 40% to 60%.
Direct imports of products from foreign producers and distributors is complicated and costly for local department stores. The annual interest rate for purchasing loans is high. Also, a high value-added tax (VAT) on imported products, and excise and customs duties can add an additional 40% to the cost of a product. Establishment of joint ventures with foreign trading companies is an alternative to direct purchasing. A foreign partner is required to supply the equipment and products, and to provide appropriate training for the local staff.
In the absence of reliable credit histories and business background reports, common sense is the main guide to developing a strong distribution and sales channel in Ukraine. U.S. companies can utilize regional distribution networks with contacts throughout the country and, more importantly, these on-the-ground entities can troubleshoot the myriad of obstacles that characterize trade in this emerging and challenging market. The Commercial Service offers a cost-effective International Partner Search Service, which will screen and identify up to six potential distributors of U.S.-made goods and services.
Agents and Distributors
As in any foreign country, a local partner or representative can provide valuable insight and commercial intelligence that might otherwise be missed by the U.S. businessperson. A local representative can be especially helpful in newly emerging markets, where a strong business information network has yet to develop. However, before entering into a distributorship or agent agreement, U.S. companies are advised to keep in mind the following points:
While the extent of information on Ukrainian companies has improved slightly, there is still a significant dearth of background data and credit history on potential Ukrainian distributors. This presents the greatest obstacle to finding reliable, competent distributors. In order to obtain a due diligence report on a potential Ukrainian partner, a U.S. company is advised to contact either a law firm or market entry facilitator (please refer to http://www.buyusa.gov/ukraine/en/page30.html).
To find a potential partner, U.S. companies may also wish to use the U.S. Embassy’s Commercial Service programs: the International Partner Search (IPS) and Gold Key Service (GKS).
The Embassy strongly advises that all U.S. companies consider legal counsel before and while doing business in Ukraine. Given the tenuous commercial environment and weak legal infrastructure, it is essential to obtain solid legal advice in structuring your company’s investment. Furthermore, it is important to keep up with the ever-changing laws and regulations. Legal counsel can provide general advice on fluctuations in the commercial environment in Ukraine and prevent disputes from emerging between partners in the future.
When drafting a contract on partnership with a Ukrainian company, a U.S. investor has to consider including an anti-bribery provision. According to the OECD Convention, which came into force in February 1999, “foreign public officials,” including all branches of government, international organizations, state enterprises, political parties and candidates, are subject to anti-bribery prohibitions. In addition, paying unusually high commissions to a distributor, hiring a representative who is a relative of a local government official, other improper advantages and improper accounting practices are subject to criminal and civil liability under anti-bribery legislation of the United States.
It is typical for Ukrainian companies to seek to establish long-term business relations on consignment or on an equal investment-sharing basis. U.S. exporters are advised to start with small sales and full pre-payment or letter of credit terms. U.S. exporters should be cautious about any balance payments, due to constantly changing rules on local banking procedures.
Kyiv is not the only hub of trade in Ukraine. Look for distributors that have nationwide capabilities, including the cities of Lviv, Odessa, Zaporizhzhya, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Kharkiv. These regions are considered important industrial centers of Ukraine and are densely populated. Demand for various kinds of products in more remote regions is not satisfied.
Franchising Activities
Franchising is still nascent in Ukraine. McDonald’s has dominated the fast-food sector in the country, but there are also other successful examples of franchising projects to be found, such as Express Personnel Services, Xerox copy centers, Kodak photo developing centers in Kyiv, Baskin Robbins, Dunkin Donuts, and others. Lack of legitimate franchising instruments is considered to be the key factor dissuading other U.S. fast food chains from doing business in Ukraine.
There are several other successful foreign and domestic franchisers:
Spar, a Netherlands-based outfit is one of the world’s largest retail food chains. Spar Ukraine was launched by a group of local investors who bought the exclusive license for the Spar brand. Spar Ukraine opened a distribution center in Kyiv early in 2001. That center supplies more than 1,000 retail food stores and restaurants in the Kyiv region and will serve as Spar’s warehouse for its stores.
CarRent Ukraine, the Hertz Franchise in Ukraine, and First Lease Ltd. merged their operations. First Lease has bought the franchising license for Hertz. CarRent Ukraine is now responsible for car rental and First Lease C for leasing.
A Lviv-based company that owns the trademarks for Pizza Celentano and The Potato House is an example of a successful local franchiser. The company has created a nation-wide chain of make-your-own-pizza and potato restaurants, having penetrated even small Ukrainian towns. The number of the company’s franchisees in Ukraine, Russia and Poland has grown to 42.
The Ukrainian market offers many opportunities for international franchising. However, as an entrepreneurial activity, franchising encounters the same general barriers that impede the establishment of small and medium sized businesses: expensive banking loans, undeveloped leasing system, and obscure IPR legislation.
Direct Marketing Options
Marketing of consumer goods is usually done through large department stores, specialty or chain stores, and direct retailing. Promotional materials for direct mailing through mail-order houses should be very detailed and in the Ukrainian language. Marketing of industrial goods and commodities is done largely by distributor warehouses, exhibitions, trade shows, and mail catalogs sent (with price lists) to the end-user. Leasing and/or the contribution of equipment to statutory funds of a joint venture can also be effective marketing techniques.
Joint Ventures and Licensing Options
Joint Ventures
Joint ventures, including those between Ukrainian and Western partners, became popular in Ukraine immediately after the start of the transformation to a market economy. They were viewed as a compromise between the customary form of business, which was oriented towards national ownership, and the necessity to attract foreign investors and learn foreign business practices.
In Ukraine’s legislation the term “joint venture” has two meanings:
Joint ventures are enterprises established primarily to pool assets of different owners and are of mixed-type ownership
Joint ventures are based on the common capital of Ukrainian and foreign business entities, as well as on joint management and common distribution of results and risks
In practice, however, the term is used for new business entities set up by Ukrainian and foreign founders. This may come about as a result of a foreign investor’s interest in a Ukrainian enterprise (taking possession of stocks and part of its authorized capital).
The availability of a foreign investor is a prerequisite for the founding and functioning of a joint venture. Definite peculiarities exist with the possible participation of state- owned enterprises in creating joint ventures. According to existing laws in Ukraine, the State Property Fund of Ukraine and agencies to which this fund delegates its authority are entitled to establish joint ventures on behalf of state-owned enterprises.
In terms of formation of joint ventures, Ukrainian law sets no limitations - they are free to be established as limited corporations, stock companies, or other associations. State registration is mandatory when establishing a joint venture. Legal enterprises are entered in the State Register of Enterprises of Ukraine.
A joint venture has all the rights of a legal entity as soon as it has its state registration. Joint ventures may perform business activities of any kind, except for those prohibited by law. Licensing is mandatory for certain kinds of activity (insurance, audit activities, law, veterinary practice, and exploring and exploiting natural resources, etc.).
Licensing Options
The Law of Ukraine “On Changes in the Law of Ukraine On Entrepreneurship” establishes permitting and licensing provisions and restrictions.
The many government agencies involved in the licensing process sometimes can be a barrier to foreign investment - the typical business has to secure roughly a dozen licenses. According to the law “On Licensing of Certain Kinds of Business Activity”, the following Ukrainian agencies are responsible for granting licenses:
Ministry of Agricultural Policy
http://www.minagro.kiev.ua
cultivation and processing of narcotic plants for industrial purposes
Ministry of Internal Affairs http://www.centrmia.gov.ua
manufacture of and trade in firearms and tear-gas guns, munitions, knives, BB air guns with caliber of more than 4.5 millimeter and bullet speed of more than 100 meters per second
manufacturing of and trade in self-protection means with tear-gas or spray base
security and guard services
Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources
http://www.menr.gov.ua
exploration and development of natural resources
exploration of uranium ores and deposits
certain kinds of waste collection and processing (Listing is determined by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine)
hazardous waste handling and utilization
aeronautic-spray services
topographic, geodesic and land-survey services
Ministry of Economy and European Integration
http://www.me.gov.ua
arbitration services (property tort, readjustment, liquidation, settlement)
export and import of compact laser disks, CD-ROMs and equipment for their production
State Department of Intellectual Property (Ministry of Education and Science)
http://www.spou.kiev.ua/
http://www.spou.gov.ua http://www.education.gov.ua
manufacture of compact laser disks, CD-ROMs
Ministry of Health of Ukraine
http://www.moz.gov.ua
disinfecting, dissection and deratization services in human facilities
medical practice
human blood processing for drugs
Ministry of Labor and Social Policy
http://www.mlsp.kiev.ua
intermediary services for employment abroad
Ministry of Finance
http://www.minfin.gov.ua
production of precious metal, precious and semi-precious stone deposits
processing of precious metals, precious and semi-precious stones
manufacturing of and trade in articles from precious metals, precious and semi-precious stones
publishing of securities or other official stationary
precious metal scrap and stones collection and processing
insurance services
lottery issue
State Committee on Building, Architecture and Housing Policy
http://www.build.gov.ua
commercial and residential water supply
construction and architectural design
State Committee for Water Resources
http://www.kmu.gov.ua
design, engineering, maintenance and construction melioration systems
State Committee for Land Resources
http://www.kmu.gov.ua
land survey and appraisal services
State Committee for Communication and Informatization
http://www.stc.gov.ua
postal money transfers, shipment of parcels under 30 kg weight, simple and registered letters, postcards
radio-frequency telecommunication services
telecommunication services (except internal corporate telecommunication services)
maintenance of video-, TV-, radio- broadcast, and wire communication systems within single company territory
Department for Tourism
http://www.tourism.gov.ua
domestic or tourist or excursion trips
Ministry of Industrial Policy of Ukraine
http://www.industry.gov.ua
manufacture of hazardous chemicals (Listing is determined by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine)
exploration and development of precious metal, precious and semi-precious stone deposits
manufacturing of and retail trade in agricultural chemicals
iron and color metal scrap collection and processing
National Space Agency
http://www.nkau.gov.ua
development, production, testing, commercial use of missiles and space infrastructure and space satellite equipment
State Commission on Securities and Stocks
http://www.ssmsc.gov.ua
brokerage and trade in securities and stocks
State Customs Service
http://www.customs.gov.ua
customs broker services
Creating a Sales Office
Shares in a Ukrainian company can generally be issued or sold to non-Ukrainian residents without restriction. There is no limitation on the percentage of ownership of a foreign investor in most types of Ukrainian companies. Preferred forms of foreign investment operations in Ukraine are: a joint stock company (JSC), limited liability company (LLC), wholly-owned subsidiary, or a representative office. For regulatory and taxation purposes, with some exceptions, representative offices are treated similarly to independent legal entities. Some industries, including banks and insurance companies, are more heavily regulated, and must be established in compliance with specific requirements. A representative office can carry out marketing, promotional, and other auxiliary and preparatory functions on behalf of the company. The establishment of a wholly owned company in Ukraine would be recommended if the company intends to carry out manufacturing or other significant local commercial activities. There is no prohibition for a foreign legal entity to have both a representative office and to establish a wholly owned subsidiary at the same time.
In choosing between an LLC and JSC, it is generally recommended that an LLC be used since it is easier to manage than a JSC. At least two founding shareholders are necessary to create a JSC. Shares issued by both closed and public JSCs must be registered with the State Commission of Securities and Stock Market. There are two levels of taxation: the JSC is taxed on its profits and the shareholders are then taxed when dividends are distributed.
In a Limited Liability Company, ownership interests are expressed in terms of contractual rights that arise out of the foundation documents. Interests in an LLC are not deemed to be “securities,” and therefore, are not subject to registration with the State Commission of Securities and Stock Market. As with a JSC, there are two levels of taxation for an LLC.
All business entities with legal entity status (resident or foreign) shall be officially registered by the administrative body of the city, city district, regional councils, Kyiv or Sevastopol district state administrations (hereinafter referred to as official registration authorities) at the place of residence of the given business entity, unless otherwise provided by law.
The following documents should be produced for registration:
Constituent agreement (when there are two or more owners)
The statute (company charter), if applicable
Registration card, serving as an application for official registration
Document certifying payment of the official registration fee
Certificate of prepayment to the statutory capital fund in the amount required by law (50% of investment capital for a JSC, and 30% for an LLC). If an owner is a foreign legal entity, an extract from the trade register, bank or court register must be produced to certify registration of the investor in the country of origin.
These documents must be duly approved according to the law of the country of origin, translated into Ukrainian and legalized in a consulate of Ukraine. They should also be approved in the Embassy of the corresponding country in Ukraine and legalized in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.
After registration, the company must be registered with the state tax and statistics authorities, and can appoint a board of directors who open the company’s bank accounts.
Selling Strategies
Prior to considering the Ukrainian market, any U.S. company should be aware of two contradictory attitudes deeply ingrained in the mind of Ukrainian customers. The first is an enthusiasm for Western manufactured products (especially consumer electronics, household appliances, cars, and cosmetics) and the second is the belief that some Ukrainian consumer products (especially food and liquor) are of better quality. This is in part due to the flood of imported goods of dubious origin and poor quality - many of which are falsely marketed under well-known brand names, and partially due to the excellent quality of locally produced food products and beverages. An inner conservatism of Ukrainians and a predilection for familiar goods play a decisive role in consumer behavior.
Locally produced promotional advertising that targets Ukrainians is required to expose the average Ukrainian to unfamiliar brand names. Consumer confidence in a particular product is improved by a description, list of ingredients, warranty or maintenance guarantee. Ukrainian consumers are turned off by products with Western brand names that are manufactured in Asia or other former socialist countries (other than Russia and Belarus), or distributed by companies located in these parts of the world. The name of a Ukrainian or Russian distributor and local address on original packaging can increase consumer confidence.
One of the key factors influencing the marketing of U.S. products in Ukraine is the right choice of an agent or distributor. If a U.S. company intends to have a long-term relationship with its Ukrainian partner, it is wise to get to know the business partner and their business as much as possible from the onset. Coordination and agreement regarding sales policies and pricing is absolutely necessary. Local businesses are oriented towards high profitability, which can seriously affect the marketability of U.S. products. U.S. exporters should be aware that their Ukrainian partners have to deal with a number of indirect duties and commercial risks that will influence their pricing policy. Generally speaking, the sales policies of U.S. companies interested in the Ukrainian market should take into account the unique features and challenges of this developing market. Rather than try and apply sales policies used in Western and Central Europe (or even Russia), a flexible and cooperative policy, oriented towards a long-term presence in the market, is much more likely to bring desired results.
Problems have arisen for U.S. companies that operate through their European subsidiaries. In many instances, unfavorable currency exchange rates and higher European taxes and/or duties decrease the price competitiveness of U.S. products. Additionally, working through European subsidiaries is perceived by Ukrainian businesses as an additional layer of bureaucracy and overhead cost. Ideally, a U.S. company interested in conducting a successful business operation in Ukraine should have an in-country representative and an established network of distributors and sellers.
Offering a flexible credit policy is important not only for small-scale Ukrainian companies, but also for multimillion-dollar local firms. Local companies access to loans and credits is limited by high interest rates and short repayment terms demanded by local banks. Moreover, the Ukrainian tax system has a very negative impact on the working capital of resident companies, reducing their credit resources.
Advertising and Trade Promotion
There are over 300 advertising agencies in Ukraine. Television advertising is on the rise and is considere
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