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Executive Report on Strategies in Uzbekistan
ICON Group International, June 2007, Pages: 372
How to Strategically Evaluate Uzbekistan
Perhaps the most efficient way of evaluating Uzbekistan is to consider key dimensions which themselves are composites of multiple factors. Composite portfolio approaches have long been used by strategic planners. The biggest challenge in this approach is to choose the appropriate factors that are the most relevant to international planning. The two measures of greatest relevance are “latent demand” and “market accessibility”. The figure below summarizes the key dimensions and recommendations of such an approach. Using these two composites, one can prioritize all countries of the world. Countries of high latent demand and high relative accessibility (e.g. easier entry for one firm compared to other firms) are given highest priority. The figure below shows two different scenarios. Accessibility is defined as a firm’s ease of entering or supplying from or to a market (the “supply side”), and latent demand is an indicator of the potential in serving from or to the market (the “demand side”).
Framework for Prioritizing Countries
Demand/Market Potential Driven Firm
Relative Accessibility
Accessibility/Supply Averse Firm
Relative Accessibility
In the top figure, the firm is driven by market potential, whereas the bottom figure represents a firm that is driven by costs or by an aversion to difficult markets. This report treats the reader as coming from a “generic firm” approaching the global market - neither a market-driven nor a cost-driven company. Planners must therefore augment this report with their own company-specific factors that might change the priorities (e.g. a Canadian firm may have higher accessibility in Canada than a German firm).
Latent Demand and Accessibility in Uzbekistan
This report provides an extremely detailed overview of factors driving latent demand and accessibility in Uzbekistan. Latent demand is largely driven by economic fundamentals. But, latent demand only represents half of the picture. A country may at first sight appear to be attractive due to a high latent demand, but it is often less attractive when one considers at the macro level how easy it might be to serve that entire potential and/or general business risks.
Chapter 2 deals with macro-accessibility. While accessibility will always vary from one company to another for a given country, the following domains are typically considered when evaluating macro-accessibility in Uzbekistan:
Openness to Trade in Uzbekistan
Openness to Direct Investment in Uzbekistan
Local Marketing and Entry Strategy Alternatives
Local Human Resources
Local Risks
Across these domains, a number of not-so-obvious factors can affect accessibility and risk. These are also covered in Chapter 2, which is presented from the perspective of an American firm, though it is equally applicable to most firms entering Uzbekistan. This chapter has been authored by local offices of the U.S. Government. I have included a number of edits to clarify the provided information as it relates to the general strategic framework.
In Chapter 3, I summarize the economic potential for Uzbekistan over the next five years for hundreds of industries, categories, and products. The goal of this chapter is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or latent demand, represented by Uzbekistan when defined as an area of dominant influence. The data presented are the result of various spatial econometric and time-series forecasting models which, for each category presented, are applied to forecast and allocate latent demand across all countries of the world and major distribution centers or centers of dominant influence within each country. This is accomplished knowing that economic fundamentals (e.g. income) generally vary from one country to another within a given country over time. In this chapter, I report the allocation for each category for Uzbekistan as an area of dominant influence in the Middle East and, potentially, the world.
As a whole, this report presents a strategic assessment of Uzbekistan by considering an extremely broad set of factors affecting both latent demand and accessibility, as outlined in the following chapters.
MACRO-ACCESSIBILITY IN UZBEKISTAN
Economic Fundamentals and Dynamics
Uzbekistans growth remains far below its considerable potential. In addition to being energy self- sufficient, Uzbekistan possesses relatively good infrastructure and rich mineral resources. Since independence, Uzbekistans stated policy of gradual, step-by-step economic reforms has, in effect, meant the delay of any transition to a market economy.
The IMF has been recommending serious structural reforms, especially of the foreign exchange regime and the agricultural sector. Until now, Uzbekistan has had less motivation to engage in serious structural reform, as the economy depends largely on export-driven commodity industries such as gold and cotton, which have been able to sustain markets without comprehensive reform.
Privatization
The government of Uzbekistan has made limited progress in privatization. Potential is limited as the Government is generally unwilling to sell controlling interest in enterprises and demands prices far in excess of what investors would be willing to pay. To date, no major state owned enterprises in the telecommunications, energy, or mining sectors have been privatized. Investors will remain wary of Uzbekistan so long as the business environment is difficult and the currency is not convertible.
Infrastructure Development
Transport infrastructure in Uzbekistan is satisfactory but still requires further development and modernization. Roads sustain freight transport and reach all areas of the country, and a rail network connects the main cities. Uzbekistans location makes it the natural transportation hub for its four Central Asian neighbors, but its strict border controls negate much of that advantage, and its doubly- landlocked status presents problems.
Air transport to Uzbekistan is good and runways are able to handle the largest transport aircraft made. In addition to Uzbekistan Airways, which boasts a modern fleet of Boeing and Airbus aircraft and which has compiled a strong safety and service record, carriers from Germany, Turkey, Korea and various NIS countries fly to Tashkent. Tashkent airport can handle freight reasonably well, and the international passenger terminals renovation is now complete.
Telecommunications in Uzbekistan have improved tremendously in recent years, with the addition of digital switching stations in Tashkent and other cities around Uzbekistan. The systems in outlying areas remain outmoded, and will require updates to attain a reasonable level of efficiency. Cellular phones are widely used; Uzbekistan has six service providers. Construction of inter-city fiber optic lines and an international fiber optic line are planned.
Small and Medium Enterprises
Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have benefited from several reforms introduced since late 1998, including:
A decree limiting harassing inspections,
A unified tax for small businesses,
Liberalized access to cash and credit.
Foreign credit lines for SMEs have also helped develop the sector.
However, the growth of the SME sector was seriously threatened on May 20, 2002 when the government introduced a unified tax on imputed income for small companies and micro-firms involved in wholesale trade. This tax on imputed income will be calculated based on a fixed rate assessed on the size of the commercial space, the location of the SMEs, and the assortment of goods sold. The government also introduced 90 percent duties for goods imported by SMEs. These new taxes will create serious problems for SMEs and investors.
Import Substitution
Foreign exchange controls, reintroduced in 1996 to conserve scarce foreign exchange after poor cotton and wheat harvests, also serve as a vehicle for the governments import substitution strategy. The government seeks to limit imports of consumer goods, and instead channels foreign exchange resources into capital goods and high technology. The government has directed significant resources into import-substituting production of items from automobiles and farm equipment to consumer electronics, batteries and lubricants to wheat and sugar. Many import substituting ventures that require imports of raw materials or component parts have been forced to cut back production or close for lack of foreign currency quotas. The ones that survive either are very high profile and well connected, or are able to earn their own foreign currency from exports.
Economic Growth and Inflation
Due to the unreliability of government statistics, which often serve political rather than economic ends, it is difficult to make an accurate estimate of economic growth in Uzbekistan. Year-on-year inflation has continuously been in double digits since 1991. Governmental measures to protect incomes from inflation have failed, in part because wages and benefits are often paid late.
Balance of Payments Issues
Between 1992 and 1996, U.S. trade with Uzbekistan grew rapidly; U.S. exports to Uzbekistan reached $352 million in 1996, driven by sales of passenger aircraft, grain, and agricultural machinery. Trade volumes have fallen sharply since 1997, reflecting in part Uzbekistans currency convertibility restrictions and its very high customs duties.
Relations with International Financial Institutions
World Bank and the International Development Association
Uzbekistan joined the World Bank and the International Development Association (IDA) in September 1992. The Banks program has financed the preparation of policies and programs for privatization and public enterprise reform, the legal and regulatory framework, financial sector development, the social safety net, employment, energy, and telecommunications. The Bank has also approved loans to finance critical imports, improve water supply, sanitation and health, and projects financed by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) related to Aral Sea Basin Management.
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is one of the largest investors in Uzbekistans economy: the total amount of its investments reached EUR 690 million and created about 60,000 new jobs in country. Since 1993, EBRD has signed 25 projects in Uzbekistan, and its total financial assistance amounted to USD 727.9 million. These projects include rehabilitation of the oil refineries and power plants, building of new production facilities, development of gold mines, assistance to SMEs and others.
Currently, the EBRD is concentrating on transportation and telecommunication systems. Recently it approved a EUR 100 million loan for Uzbek State Railways for modernization of the rail transport system that will improve the communication and management systems, an urgent necessity for landlocked Uzbekistan. EBRD also financed the municipal heating system of the Andijan Province with an emphasis on saving energy and reducing pollution.
Asian Development Bank
Uzbekistan became a member the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in 1995 and has received 10 loans since then. ADB assistance was channeled to transport and communications, social infrastructure, agriculture and natural resources and finance.
The U.S. Department of Commerce maintains a Congressionally-mandated Commercial Liaison Office for the ADB (CS ADB). The Offices mission is to help American firms access, enter and expand in Asian markets that benefit from ADB assistance. The office provides counseling, advocacy, project information, and conducts outreach programs in the region as well as in the United States to assist U.S. firms in taking advantage of commercial opportunities in ADB borrower countries.
Political Risks
Political relations between the United States and Uzbekistan are strong, and Uzbekistan cooperates closely with the United States in international fora and on foreign policy, security, antiterrorism, and anti-narcotics issues. Uzbekistans relations with the U.S. have been restrained, however, by Washingtons concerns regarding Uzbekistans slow progress on democratic reform and its human rights abuses, as well as Uzbekistans reluctance to undertake serious economic reforms.
Uzbekistans Constitution, adopted on December 8, 1992, provides for a presidential system with separation of powers, freedom of speech, and representative government. The Parliament is a 250-member rubber-stamp body consisting almost entirely of regional officials appointed by the President and members of parties that support the President. It meets only a few days each year, and has little power to shape laws. Despite constitutional provisions for an independent judiciary, the executive branch heavily influences the courts in both civil and criminal cases.
Uzbekistan has come under heavy criticism for its poor human rights record, and its repression of political opposition. Election and registration laws restrict the possibility of any real opposition parties arising or mounting a campaign. There is effective civilian control over the military. The Ministry of Interior (MVD) controls the police. The police and other MVD forces are responsible for most normal police functions. The National Security Service (NSS)--the former KGB--deals with a broad range of national security questions, as well as corruption, organized crime, and narcotics. The police and the NSS allegedly have committed numerous serious human rights abuses.
The main political factor affecting the business climate in Uzbekistan is corruption and complicated clan-based power structures, many of which profit from the distortions in the current economic system, and therefore resist reform. Another key factor is officials inability to make any important decisions without presidential approval.
Marketing Strategies
A key aspect of marketing in Uzbekistan is identifying customers with access to the hard currency needed to purchase U.S. products and services. Some buyers may have illegal offshore accounts, or they may have their own dollars from export revenue. Others may arrange a deal via a legal swap through an exporter on the commodities market. Those transactions are based on an implicit exchange rate about 15-20% over the black market exchange rate.
Larger investment projects, approved and guaranteed by the government, provide the best opportunities for the export of machinery, equipment, parts, materials, and consumables. Since the Government of Uzbekistan is interested in importing technology from abroad, it offers foreign companies tariff exemptions for equipment imports.
Distribution Channel Options
Underdeveloped telecommunications and transportation networks define the distribution network in Uzbekistan. This fact presents several challenges to any company wishing to distribute its products in Uzbekistan.
U.S. companies currently active in Uzbekistan prefer to use a combination of methods to get their product to market. The following are the most widely-used methods: distributing or selling the product directly; working through a country-wide distributor or agent; working through more than one local-area distributor or agent; and distributing or selling products directly from a warehouse.
Most of Uzbekistans population is concentrated in two geographical areas: Tashkent and the east (Fergana Valley). U.S. consumer-product companies are advised to target their efforts first in these regions. People in Tashkent have much greater purchasing power than elsewhere in the country. The cities of Samarkand and Bukhara, which benefit from tourism, and Navoi, which is home to Uzbekistans most successful gold mining enterprise, are also relatively affluent.
Franchising Activities
Franchising would be very appropriate for Uzbekistan consumer industries since many business people do not have sufficient experience and knowledge in establishing their own businesses. Once again, the problem is currency convertibility. Some western companies that have opened franchise stores in Tashkent are Levis, Adidas, Naf-Naf, Benneton, and Mother Care. In the past when the gap between the official and black market exchange rate was large, franchises with close government connections have done well by importing goods at preferential exchange rates. The recent convergence of exchange rates should eliminate the governments ability to distribute favors by providing access to preferential exchange rates, if the small gap between the official and black market rates is sustainable.
Joint Ventures and Licensing Options
There are more than 3,000 joint ventures registered in Uzbekistan, though many of these are not currently active. In most cases, local joint venture partners depend on their foreign partners to shoulder the majority of capital investment, because they often have little working capital and have difficulty getting financing from local banks. Potential foreign investors should exercise extreme caution in selecting joint venture partners. It must be noted, however, that in order to legally register as an entity in Uzbekistan, a foreign investor must be involved in a joint venture with a local company.
The law on licensing was only issued in September 2000. This law is very general and quite different from what exists in the U.S. The licensing regulation in the telecommunication sector was established with participation of World Bank consultants and is close to international standards for transparency.
Direct Marketing Options
The process of direct marketing is growing slowly in Uzbekistan. A popular form of direct marketing is distributing free samples at points of sale, at major cultural events, and door-to-door. There are limited examples of direct marketing via television. Marketing by mail is not used.
E-Commerce
Although the number of Internet Service Providers has grown, penetration remains low and E-commerce is virtually non-existent. Tashkent, with 90 percent of the countrys Internet users, is the only viable e-commerce market in Uzbekistan. The Government frequently attempts to control access to the Internet, though Internet Cafes, notably in Tashkent, are increasingly popular.
Advertising and Trade Promotion
There are several western and local advertising firms in Tashkent. Several means of advertising are effective in Uzbekistan. Print and television are among the most popular. The Russian and Uzbek published 'Bisnis Vestnik Vostoka (BVV)' and 'TRUD' are the most widely read newspapers in Uzbekistan and are the best for advertising. Both carry current economic, political, and business articles of interest to the entire business community. The most popular TV channels in Uzbekistan are Yoshlar, Channel 30, ORT and NTV. Many affluent Uzbeks subscribe to Kamalak cable television service. Radio, billboard, and transport (buses, trams) advertising are also commonly-used by Western and local companies.
Uzbekistan has several trade shows throughout the year, including tourism, energy, technology, oil and gas, and mining fairs. Most of them are held at the Uzexpocenter which is the largest expocenter in the region.
Hiring Local Counsel
The rapid pace of change and the high degree of uncertainty in the legal and regulatory environment present significant problems for foreign businesses in Uzbekistan. Legislation is complex and conflicting. Authorities are frequently able to issue special regulations or grant permission on a case-by-case basis. Therefore, U.S. firms operating in Uzbekistan are strongly encouraged to use a local attorney for legal transactions. The Commercial Service of the U.S. Embassy in Tashkent maintains a list of American, international and local law firms with permanent offices in Uzbekistan.
Import and Export Regulation Risks
Documentation Required for Trade
The Government of Uzbekistan restricts imports by imposing high tariffs and limiting movement of traders, including closing foot bridges and other border posts between Kazakhstan/Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan/Uzbekistan. This replaced the former import contract registration system that limited the availability of foreign exchange. Since 1996, the Government has severely compressed imports. Surveys of foreign companies consistently conclude that trade/border/customs restrictions are the worst of many serious obstacles to doing business in Uzbekistan.
Customs
Once over this hurdle, investors face the next obstacle - The State Customs Committee. Customs clearance is a tedious and capricious bureaucratic process. Even capital equipment imports for U.S. Uzbek joint ventures are subject to substantial processing delays and often remain in customs for two to three months, incurring hefty storage costs. Delays affect all imports, as there is no procedure for releasing goods under bond. To avoid these problems, many firms contract for pre-shipment inspection (PSI), which does reduce customs clearance delays. Arbitrary seizures of goods, or seizures based on ex-post-facto application of new laws or regulations, are common.
Import Tariffs
Uzbekistans customs duties form an effective barrier to the legal importation of certain goods. In July 2002, a Cabinet of Ministers resolution introduced raised duties to 90 percent for most non-food goods and 50 percent for food. Although later lowered to 70 percent for non-food and 40 percent for food, the current system has caused prices of many imported items to jump substantially. Tashkent consumers face far higher prices for imported items than their neighbors in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.
Testing, Labeling, and Certification
Uzbekistan continues to use an arbitrary set of technical standards based on outdated Soviet methods. Despite regulations to the contrary, customs officials routinely reject foreign certifications of conformity to these standards. Perishable goods are subject to burdensome phytosanitary tests, making it difficult, for example, for restaurants and hotels to use imported foodstuffs. Customs officials often take excess test samples of goods subject to technical standards for their own use.
There are three joint ventures that perform price verifications and otherwise assist in import contract registration. One of these, Intertek Testing Services, is also accredited to perform pre-shipment inspection (PSI) to verify the quality of contracted goods. Only tobacco and alcohol are currently subject to mandatory PSI, but importers may choose to subject other goods to PSI. A December 1997 decree requires the Agency for Foreign Economic Relations to approve import contract registration of pre-inspected goods within two days. Anecdotal reports from those doing business in Uzbekistan indicate that the decree has succeeded in accelerating the clearance of pre-inspected goods.
In terms of labeling, all products coming into Uzbekistan to be labeled in Uzbek. This requirement has prompted many backups at customs points, and many goods have languished in warehouses as no Uzbek language labels are available for their items. In addition, requirements for certificates of origin have also severely restricted consumers access to imports, as many goods were formerly transported by 'suitcase' traders without certificates of origin.
Export Policies and Controls
The government centralizes the export of certain commodities, such as gold and petroleum; private exports of these products are permitted only by presidential decree. Restrictions also apply to the export of many foodstuffs. The export of subsidized products, such as flour and sugar, is prohibited.
Contrary to WTO standards, the government of Uzbekistan grants some tax benefits, such as tax holidays, for Uzbek or foreign joint venture exporters. A July 5, 2001 Presidential Decree exempts most exporters from profit taxes on their exports, and exempts them from property tax if they export over 50 percent of their production.
Government Procurement
There is no systematic approach to government procurement in Uzbekistan. Instead, procurement decisions are made in a decentralized and ad hoc manner. Often the procurement process of the central government is similar to those of many countries, with tenders, bid documents, bids and a formal contract award. However, many tenders are announced with suspiciously short deadlines and are awarded to insider companies. A draft Government Procurement Law produced in mid-1998 by an inter-ministerial working group with support from a USG - provided advisor has yet to be submitted to parliament. Uzbekistan is not a signatory of the WTO Agreement on Government Procurement.
Services Barriers
One barrier to foreign services firms entering the Uzbek market is difficulty in converting the currency. For example, insurance companies must collect their premiums in UZS and may not pay reinsurance premiums in hard currency on the world market. Likewise claims may only be paid in UZS. These provisions can only be overcome by a special presidential decree granting the company the right to do business in dollars. To date only a state-owned insurance company, Uzbekinvest, and an American-Uzbek joint venture, UzAIG, have that permission.
Investment Climate
Openness to Foreign Investment
With a population of 25.5 million, Uzbekistan is the largest consumer market in Central Asia. Rich natural resources such as gold, gas and cotton offer attractive opportunities for investors. Uzbekistan is the worlds fifth largest cotton producer and second largest cotton exporter after the United States. Uzbekistan has the potential to be a regional economic powerhouse, but the Government of Uzbekistan (GOU) has yet to create the necessary conditions to attract needed foreign investment.
It is the declared policy of the Government of Uzbekistan to attract foreign investment. Direct foreign investors are granted a host of incentives on a case-by-case basis, including tax holidays, duty-free capital goods imports, and protection against expropriation. However, legislative requirements for these benefits are ambiguous, processes and procedures are cumbersome, and the regulatory environment is capricious. While these conditions provide opportunities to companies in a position to turn special decrees and privileges to their advantage, most potential investors are deterred. As a result, Uzbekistan has so far attracted less foreign direct investment per capita than any other CIS country despite its strategic location and considerable economic potential.
There are no official limits on foreign ownership or control of enterprises in Uzbekistan, though the GOU keeps a controlled share in a number of strategic industries (i.e. mining, agriculture, machinery manufacturing). In many instances, foreign investors are treated more favorably than local companies. There are numerous cases where local companies seek international registration in order to receive better treatment in tenders with the GOU.
The GOU has committed itself to reaching current account convertibility, a key component of the IMF reform program. Such an achievement would go far toward resolving the most serious of obstacles to investment in Uzbekistan, the inability to access foreign currency for ongoing operations, as well as repatriation.
Conversion and Transfer Policies
Almost all foreign investors report having difficulties getting authorization to convert soum to dollars legally in the amounts they require for their operations. Currently, the national currency of Uzbekistan, the soum, is not convertible even for current international transactions. Uzbekistan still maintains a segmented foreign exchange market and multiple exchange rates, though the exchange rate gap has decreased significantly. There are two legal exchange rates for the soum. These are:
The official/commercial rate, and
The exchange booth rate.
Access to the exchange booth rate is legally open to all the citizens of Uzbekistan with a limit of USD 1,500 per calendar quarter. The exchange booth rate is close to the curb (black) market exchange rate, which is freely determined. Transacting at the curb market rate is illegal, but widespread. Trading companies, with authorization to exchange, generally use the exchange booth rate.
A July 2002 decree prohibits the use of foreign currency for purchase of goods and services, making the national currency, the soum, the only legal tender on the internal market. The new ban reverses a previous decree that required that foreigners pay for airline and railway tickets, hotels and other services in U.S. dollars.
Although the exchanges rates at present are very close, if the gap begins to widen as it had done historically, foreign investors could experience financial losses. Some foreign joint ventures involved in exports have negotiated decrees exempting them from the surrender requirement. Exports from small and medium-sized enterprises are exempted from any hard currency surrender requirement if these enterprises export products of their own manufacture.
In January 2002, the surrender requirement for 'centralized' exports (metals, oil and gas, products of the chemical industry) was reduced from 100 percent to 50 percent. Although a decree has been issued to reduce the governments role in selling cotton from 100 percent to 50 percent, at present most of the cotton is purchased by the government and sold on the world market.
The Government appears to recognize that the multiple exchange rate system distorts overall resource allocation in the economy and is therefore not sustainable in the long run. Different views exist among the Government and international observers regarding the pace and steps which should be used to achieve a market-based economy.
Expropriation and Compensation
Although the GOU can legally expropriate property, only with compensation at fair market value, the Government has been known to expropriate property of joint ventures (with foreign investment partners) at lower than fair market value. The GOU has also been known to frequently take property from local businesses and individuals with inadequate compensation. Agricultural enterprises are particularly vulnerable to expropriation of land.
Dispute Settlement
Uzbekistan does not have a uniform, well-defined method of settling disputes. International arbitration is permitted, but under current law, arbitration awards can be challenged in domestic courts, which may be reluctant to enforce foreign decisions. A number of foreign companies have not received payment even after being awarded judgment in international arbitration. Others have pursued a claim and won in the court system, but then the Government has been recalcitrant in enforcing the ruling. There are several cases, however, in which international arbitration awards have been successfully enforced in Uzbekistan. It is important to include provisions for international arbitration in agreements from the outset.
Most disputes involve nonpayment or delayed payment for goods or services by state entities. Disputes with joint venture partners, whether state-owned or private, are also common. Uzbekistan does not have a well-developed legal system that fairly and effectively enforces property and contractual rights. GOU officials inconsistently interpret laws, which often conflict with each other. Central government interference in the court system is common, as are accusations of corruption.
Uzbekistan is a member of the International Center for the Settlement of Investment Disputes and the New York Convention of 1958 on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards. However, numerous companies have reported that the local courts, including the Tashkent Economic Court and the Supreme Court, have failed to enforce international judgments against Uzbek companies, particularly state-owned enterprises.
Performance Requirements and Incentives
In most sectors, foreign ownership is restricted, as foreign investors may not legally operate in Uzbekistan except as partners in joint ventures with Uzbek firms. For example, foreign ownership of banks is limited to 50 percent. Banking and insurance firms with foreign participation are required to establish a charter capitalization fund of $5 million, whereas the GOU determines the required size of the charter funds of Uzbek firms on a case-by-case basis.
Generally, foreign ownership in JVs is no
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