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Executive Report on Strategies in Vietnam
ICON Group International, June 2007, Pages: 387
How to Strategically Evaluate Vietnam
Perhaps the most efficient way of evaluating Vietnam is to consider key dimensions which themselves are composites of multiple factors. Composite portfolio approaches have long been used by strategic planners. The biggest challenge in this approach is to choose the appropriate factors that are the most relevant to international planning. The two measures of greatest relevance are “latent demand” and “market accessibility”. The figure below summarizes the key dimensions and recommendations of such an approach. Using these two composites, one can prioritize all countries of the world. Countries of high latent demand and high relative accessibility (e.g. easier entry for one firm compared to other firms) are given highest priority. The figure below shows two different scenarios. Accessibility is defined as a firm’s ease of entering or supplying from or to a market (the “supply side”), and latent demand is an indicator of the potential in serving from or to the market (the “demand side”).
Framework for Prioritizing Countries
Demand/Market Potential Driven Firm
Relative Accessibility
Accessibility/Supply Averse Firm
Relative Accessibility
In the top figure, the firm is driven by market potential, whereas the bottom figure represents a firm that is driven by costs or by an aversion to difficult markets. This report treats the reader as coming from a “generic firm” approaching the global market - neither a market-driven nor a cost-driven company. Planners must therefore augment this report with their own company-specific factors that might change the priorities (e.g. a Canadian firm may have higher accessibility in Canada than a German firm).
Latent Demand and Accessibility in Vietnam
This report provides an extremely detailed overview of factors driving latent demand and accessibility in Vietnam. Latent demand is largely driven by economic fundamentals. But, latent demand only represents half of the picture. A country may at first sight appear to be attractive due to a high latent demand, but it is often less attractive when one considers at the macro level how easy it might be to serve that entire potential and/or general business risks.
Chapter 2 deals with macro-accessibility. While accessibility will always vary from one company to another for a given country, the following domains are typically considered when evaluating macro-accessibility in Vietnam:
Openness to Trade in Vietnam
Openness to Direct Investment in Vietnam
Local Marketing and Entry Strategy Alternatives
Local Human Resources
Local Risks
Across these domains, a number of not-so-obvious factors can affect accessibility and risk. These are also covered in Chapter 2, which is presented from the perspective of an American firm, though it is equally applicable to most firms entering Vietnam. This chapter has been authored by local offices of the U.S. Government. I have included a number of edits to clarify the provided information as it relates to the general strategic framework.
In Chapter 3, I summarize the economic potential for Vietnam over the next five years for hundreds of industries, categories, and products. The goal of this chapter is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or latent demand, represented by Vietnam when defined as an area of dominant influence. The data presented are the result of various spatial econometric and time-series forecasting models which, for each category presented, are applied to forecast and allocate latent demand across all countries of the world and major distribution centers or centers of dominant influence within each country. This is accomplished knowing that economic fundamentals (e.g. income) generally vary from one country to another within a given country over time. In this chapter, I report the allocation for each category for Vietnam as an area of dominant influence in Asia and, potentially, the world.
As a whole, this report presents a strategic assessment of Vietnam by considering an extremely broad set of factors affecting both latent demand and accessibility, as outlined in the following chapters.
MACRO-ACCESSIBILITY IN VIETNAM
Historic U.S.-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement in Force
The Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA), which went into effect on December 10, 2001, is the centerpiece of our efforts to open Vietnam’s market and promote reform of its trade and investment regime. Vietnam’s decision to sign the BTA came after four years of negotiations and a difficult internal debate among Vietnamese leaders over concerns that opening Vietnam’s economy would dilute the control of the Communist Party. Vested interests in Vietnam’s state-owned enterprises also have fought hard to maintain their near-monopolies in important areas of Vietnam’s economy. The signing of the BTA was hailed by observers inside and outside the country as a major victory for reform.
Specifically, the BTA requires Vietnam to:
Eliminate a broad array of non-tariff barriers to U.S. exports
Significantly cut tariffs on goods of high interest to the U.S., especially agricultural items
Provide effective protection and enforcement of U.S. intellectual property rights
Open Vietnam’s market to U.S. services providers
Create fair and transparent rules and regulations for U.S. investors.
BTA implementation requires extensive legal, regulatory, and administrative changes. The Vietnamese Government is working to implement the BTA, although it is behind schedule on some commitments, including providing adequate protection for intellectual property rights and some transparency obligations. The Vietnamese Government has established an interagency working group that is coordinating efforts to complete the extensive work necessary to bring Vietnam’s laws and regulations into conformity with its commitments. In order to ensure Vietnam is able to meet its BTA obligations, the U.S. Government is providing significant technical assistance through a variety of agencies and organizations to a broad array of Vietnamese government agencies with technical advice, training and materials to facilitate reforms necessary to meet the BTA’s complex requirements.
Integration into the World Economy and Reform
Vietnam has made gradual integration into the world economy a priority. Vietnam has committed itself to an ambitious program of economic and trade reform under agreements with the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the U.S.-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement. Under the Asian Free Trade Agreement (AFTA), the BTA, and the World Bank and IMF programs, Vietnam has committed to liberalize its trade and investment regimes, lower tariffs, eliminate all but five quantitative restrictions, and institute a transparent, rules-based trading and investment regime. Progress on banking reform has kept pace with Vietnam’s commitments under World Bank and IMF programs but reform of the state-owned enterprise sector is lagging severely behind schedule.
State Bank Supervision Becoming More Evident
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), the Ministry of Finance, and the State Securities Commission with considerable assistance from the donor community, particularly the World Bank, IMF, Asia Development Bank (ADB), U.S., British and other governments, have been leading advocates for financial sector reform in Vietnam. The SBV has removed the cap on U.S. dollar bank lending and given more autonomy in domestic commercial banks in setting up Vietnam Dong deposit and lending rates.
Foreign Direct Investment
In the short span of a decade, foreign investment has become a major, growing, and vibrant factor in the country’s economy, particularly the industrial component, and in exports. Since opening to the outside in 1988, Vietnam has attracted almost $42 billion in investment commitments. However, only about $25 billion, or 6o percent, of that amount has actually been invested in more than 4,500 projects.
Rescheduled Debt
In 2000, after years of negotiations, Vietnam succeeded in rescheduling at about 15 cents to the dollar its official debt with Russia, which included debt carried over from the former Soviet Union. The U.S. essentially ‘swapped’ debt owed to it from Vietnam (which the country assumed from the former government of the Republic of South Vietnam as a condition of normalization). Vietnam is obligated to pay the U.S. this debt, but the payments are being placed in an Educational Trust, the Vietnam Educational Fund (VEF), established by the U.S. Congress for Vietnamese students to study in the U.S. and for U.S. students to study in Vietnam. The VEF began providing financial assistance to Vietnamese students in 2003.
FDI Industrial Performance Impressive
The foreign invested sector has consistently outperformed the state sector in industrial growth over the past several years. Interestingly, the foreign invested and domestic private sectors now account for more than 50 percent of the country’s industrial output. While industry and construction account for greater than 50 percent of investments, a significant level of foreign investment has been realized in services sectors (e.g., hotels, tourism, apartments, banking and finance).
From Agriculture to Industrialization
While the majority of Vietnam’s 80 million people live in the rural sector and engage in intensive agriculture, the country is rapidly industrializing. While agriculture is continuing to grow, the industrial sector is growing relatively faster. This is particularly the case in and around Ho Chi Minh City in the south The city and three surrounding provinces of Binh Duong, Dong Nai, and Da Ria-Vung Tau, with only 3.8 percent of the country’s surface area and 11.2 percent of the population, account for over 30 percent of the country’s GDP. Essentially, this incredible economic story is the result of large inflows of foreign investment to these provinces - almost 50 percent of all FDI goes to this area. For Vietnam to grow more uniformly, other regions of Vietnam will have to mirror what leaders and businesses in the greater Ho Chi Minh City area have accomplished and learn from the mistakes and obstacles experienced.
Impressive Human Resource Potential
Visitors to Vietnam are struck by the industriousness and respect for knowledge and learning of the Vietnamese people. Much of this labor, though, is inefficient and surplus. Out of the population of 80 million, over 40 million are in the workforce and most of those live in rural areas. It has been estimated that of the 34 million Vietnamese workers in the countryside, most work roughly 100 days per year during the planting and harvesting periods. Rural industrial development would spur growth and soak up the excess labor. Unemployment statistics as understood in the West are not yet maintained in Vietnam. However, the government with approximately 1.5 million employees is engaged in an effort to downsize. Similarly, if Vietnam keeps to its timetabling of state-owned enterprise reform, that sector will also shrink from its current employment level of about 2 million workers. Add to this, Vietnam’s youthful population (60 percent of the population is below the age of 30) with an approximate 1.5 million new entrants into the workforce each year, have analysts agreeing that one of the country’s primary development tasks is the need to promote job creation through private sector development. Over the last few years, the private sector has been the only area of the economy actively creating real jobs. Currently, the non-farm private sector provides about 5 million jobs, with 1 million of these jobs found in the formal private sector.
Western economists urge the government to relentlessly adopt policies to promote the private sector and labor-intensive export industries to generate jobs. The countries labor law, enacted only in 1994 and amended in 2001, contains significant levels of labor protection. At the same time, while Vietnam devotes considerable attention to labor matters, there continues to be deficiencies in the labor regime. The International Labor Organization, the United National Development Program, the U.S. government and others are working with Vietnamese government and labor officials to improve the countries laws and labor practices. The goal for Vietnam is to put the surplus labor to work, and for the labor force to be flexible, trained, and in compliance with international norms.
Rich Mineral Resources
The country is also rich in natural resources. It is a net exporter of oil & coal and has under-developed hydroelectric & geothermal energy potential. Vietnam is also rich with deposits of ferrous and non-ferrous minerals, many of which have yet to be exploited. Vietnam’s exports of oil have contributed robustly to the country’s export earnings in recent years.
Vietnam’s successes in petroleum development are the result of early opening to foreign concessionaires. However, in the early 1990’s the country tightened the terms of production sharing contracts such that they were no longer in sync with the country’s petroleum prospectivity, causing a number of potential investors to look elsewhere. In 2000, the National Assembly made some changes to the fiscal regime for international oil companies which have helped restart exploration. While Exxon/Mobil departed the upstream sector in 1999, other U.S. majors (e.g., Conoco, Unocal) and independents operate here.
The big news in the sector, however, relates more to development of a several trillion cubic foot gas reserve discovered in the early 1990’s by BP. After years of negotiation, the BP-led consortium in late 2000 signed a deal for the construction of the 400 kilometer Nam Con Son gas pipeline.
Agricultural Production Improves but Greater Value-Added Needed in the Rural Sector
Agricultural successes in recent years have been little short of phenomenal. Where 15 years ago the country was a net importer of food, Vietnam has become the second largest exporter of rice. The country is also a leading exporter of robusta coffee, pepper, and nuts. Rice and coffee account for about half of agricultural export revenues.
Economists and policy makers seek solutions for Vietnam’s rural sector where the overwhelming proportion of the population lives and works. Crop diversification, rural industrialization, increased size of farm to permit greater mechanization, application of science and technology, and diversification of crops are all ideas for greater growth and further poverty reduction in rural areas.
Vietnam Attracts High Levels of ODA with Japan Leading Bilateral Donors
The level of support for Vietnam’s development by international donors and NGO’s continues to grow. ODA is found in most sectors of Vietnam’s economy but has been most significant in infrastructure (energy and transportation), followed by economic management, social and development and agriculture. Some twenty countries and international organizations provide ODA to Vietnam. Japan is by far the largest donor country in Vietnam.
International Financial Institutions Have Large Stakes in Vietnam
The World Bank and the Asia Development Bank (ADB) also have very large programs in Vietnam. They are, however, heavily laden with important conditions, which are designed to assist Vietnam to undertake deep reforms in the state-owned enterprise and financial sectors in particular. Many countries have found important development niches in the country and provide excellent assistance. For example, GTZ, the German development agency, has helped establish the government’s central audit agency and has worked with many ministries to develop post-expenditure audit capabilities. NGO’s contribute about US$ 83 million in “hands-on” development assistance.
USAID in Vietnam
In conjunction with the November 2000 visit to Vietnam of the former President Clinton, the U.S. established a U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Office in Hanoi. The USAID office’s mission is to better oversee existing humanitarian programs and to help develop several new ones in the areas of economic growth, health, and disaster mitigation.
Globally, USAID stands at the forefront of agencies around the world in its ability to respond to health and humanitarian needs as well as man made and natural disasters. In Vietnam, with funding support of the Leahy War Victims Fund (LWVF), the Displaced Children and Orphans Fund (DCOF) and the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA), USAID’s programs in this portfolio focus mainly on HIV/AIDS and Disabilities.
USAID has become the largest bilateral donor in HIV/AIDS in Vietnam through its Global IMPACT Project implemented by Family Health International, the POLICY Project, and funding for the Center for Social Development Studies. This program has developed comprehensive prevention interventions in four provinces, including especially innovative approaches for reaching high-risk groups such as sex workers and drug users; introduced behavioral surveillance surveys to the national surveillance system; and supported social marketing of condoms in six provinces.
USAID is supporting a diverse range of programs serving people with disabilities, working with Vietnam’s Ministry of Health, Ministry of Labor, Invalids, and Social Affairs, and Ministry of Education and Training. These programs support technical assistance to large orthotics workshops at Bach Mai Hospital and the National Institute of Pediatrics in Hanoi; training of prosthetics and orthotics technicians at the Vietcot center; assistance in policy development to the National Coordinating Committee on Disabilities; support to hearing-impaired children, including development of an indigenous Vietnamese sign language; vocational training of adolescents with disabilities; and development of a model for inclusive education and community support for disabled children.
USAID also supports a U.S.-Asia Environmental Partnership (US-AEP) office in Hanoi. Through U.S-AEP, the U.S Government is helping Vietnam improve its overall environmental regulatory framework; develop robust air and water quality standards; draft strategies to implement cleaner production and to ensure the environmental sound in industries; improve air quality; and increase public awareness of environmental issues throughout the country. U.S-AEP continues to support decentralized yet integrated approaches to urban and natural resource management by facilitating partnerships between U.S and Vietnamese cities.
Vietnam Transitions from Socialism to a Mixed Economy
For much of the history of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, the country was at war, including a civil war in which the U.S. supported the defunct Republic of South Vietnam. But the country also fought the French, the Chinese, and the Khmer Rouge at different times from 1954 until 1989. Following unification of the country in 1975, the economy fell into a tailspin as it rushed to implement socialist policies in the south, including collectivization. By the time of the Sixth Party Congress in 1986, as the prospect of continued aid from the Soviet Union dimmed, the Communist Party was forced to adopt ‘renovation’ or ‘doi moi’ policies to begin addressing the deficiencies of the socialist economic system. Major components of this reform included returning incentives to individual farmers and opening up to the outside world, and among other things, permitting foreign investment to develop in Vietnam.
Reforms had dramatic effects in the 1990’s and growth rates far exceeded expectations. Through much of the decade, foreign investment flowed to what many called the newest ‘Asian dragon’. Renewed confidence in the economy also spurred a revival in domestic demand. Vietnamese took savings hoarded in mattresses and began building homes and purchasing motorbikes, electronics, and more nutritious food. However, the first round of reforms initiated in 1986 had largely played out at around the same time of the regional financial crises in 1997. Instead of undertaking greater liberalization, the Vietnamese government retrenched and during 1998 and 1999 the pace of reforms slowed. The expectations of a number of foreign investors who had come to Vietnam in the early and mid-nineties plummeted. They found they could no longer sustain operations, and many departed. Others cut overhead and sent expatriate staff home in order to survive the lean years.
Economic Relationship with the United States
Vietnamese officials have, in the wake of the entry-into-force of the US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) in December 2001, been prone to say that we have achieved “full normalization” of bilateral relations. Certainly, our ties are today fuller, broader, and deeper than at any time since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1995. While the fullest possible accounting for Americans Missing in Action from the war remains a top priority for the U.S. government in Vietnam, the U.S. government also works cooperatively with the Government of Vietnam (GVN) on a wide array of other important issues, including the international campaign against terrorism, trade and investment, scientific and medical research, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, and development of rule of law. In areas of disagreement, notably respect for human rights and religious freedom, our two governments are committed to a regular exchange of views through dialogue and exchanges, as well as visits in both directions. We look forward to continuing this process of normalization, in particular the promotion of more normal military-to-military relations.
Political Risks
Vietnam is undertaking an ambitious course of transition both domestically and internationally, but remains essentially stable under the continued leadership of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV).
Domestic Policy
Faced with economic melt-down in the mid-1980’s, the CPV adopted a “Doi Moi” (renovation) policy that has gradually led to the abandonment of a centrally-directed economy and the shift to a more genuinely market-based economy. This has produced much higher growth rates, large inflows of international investment and assistance, and generally higher living standards for the people of Vietnam. The GVN appears committed to this path of change, as witnessed again by new commitments under the BTA and by the GVN’s quest for WTO membership. The GVN and CPV have at the same time reduced official interference in private lives of citizens and have permitted a broad expansion of personal liberties. But the GVN remains a one-Party state that brooks no overt criticism of the GVN or CPV and continues to restrict aspects of freedoms of religion, speech, assembly, and the press, while denying true choice in the political system or leaders. There are no signs of active opposition to the GVN or CPV, and most Vietnamese appear satisfied with the economic and social improvements of the past years.
In large part due to a lack of transparency, accountability, and media freedom, widespread official corruption and inefficient bureaucracy remain serious problems that even the CPV and GVN admit they must address squarely and soon. Competition among government agencies for control over business and investments has also created a confusion of overlapping jurisdictions and bureaucratic procedures. In addition, decisions handed down by the central authorities often do not translate into action at the province or district level, where the interests of local authorities or other economic actors may be counterpoised. Both local and national decision-makers must be taken into account when pursuing commercial projects.
Foreign Policy
Vietnam has an “open-door” policy of friendly relations with all nations. In July 1995, Vietnam normalized diplomatic relations with the United States, became a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and, thereby, of ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA), and signed a memorandum of understanding for commercial cooperation with the European Union. Vietnam entered Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in November 1998. Vietnam is an active member of the United Nations and most of its related agencies. The U.S. welcomes Vietnam’s regional and international integration and its participation in the international campaign against terrorism and the reconstruction of Afghanistan.
Political System
The Vietnamese Constitution makes explicit that the CPV is the “force leading the State and society.” Under the Constitution, the highest deliberative body is the National Assembly, which serves five year terms. There are no other political parties. The National Assembly has responsibility for electing the President, Prime Minister and other top officials, and for ratifying the Prime Minister’s ministerial slate. It generally meets twice a year for periods of four to six weeks.
Party Congresses are held every five years. The CPV maintains an extensive leadership network at the national, provincial, district, and township levels, in parallel with the People’s Committees, which act as the administrative wings of the government at those levels.
Marketing Strategies
Distribution Channel Options
Legal Constraints on Foreign Participation
Despite recent liberalization, Vietnam’s regulations continue to place significant restrictions on foreign participation in the importing and distribution sectors. In this context, “foreign” refers to companies or organizations with foreign capital. To a large extent, import and distribution activities are reserved for Vietnamese entities, and offshore manufacturers must work through Vietnamese firms to establish distribution or retailing operations inside Vietnam. However, foreign-capital companies licensed to manufacture in Vietnam may be permitted to distribute their products domestically. Investment licenses now may also allow foreign-invested companies to import raw materials for manufacturing their products locally, as well as finished products before production start-up for the purpose of test marketing and developing the business over a limited period of time.
According to the U.S.-Vietnam BTA currently in force, U.S. firms are permitted to form joint ventures with Vietnamese partners in distribution services three years after the date of entry into force of the Agreement (i.e. on December 10, 2004) subject to some limitations on trading and distribution rights. One hundred percent U.S. invested capital firms may be established seven years after the date of entry into force of the Agreement subject to the same limitations, which shall be abolished over phase-out periods.
Distribution Channels
Vietnam’s distribution system is a fragmented patchwork of state-owned import-export companies, private and state-owned wholesalers, independent Vietnamese agents and distributors, retail outlets, and street stalls. The formal distribution channels often overlap parallel channels for smuggled and “gray market” goods.
Non-Vietnamese entities are barred from general participation in Vietnam’s distribution system, although foreign investors have the right to sell, market, and distribute what they manufacture locally. Most local firms holding import licenses are State Owned Enterprises (SOE’s).
For many products, nationwide distribution requires the establishment of separate networks in the North, the South, and the Central Region. Lack of physical infrastructure links among the major regions, cultural and economic differences across the nation, and the fact that today’s Vietnam was divided during the period when the modern economy was established all make it difficult to achieve “one-stop” distribution in many sectors.
Importing and Exporting
In order to engage directly in export or import activities, a company’s business registration certificate must cover “import-export” or “trading”. This activity is mainly reserved for Vietnamese firms, both state-owned and private. A foreign-invested enterprise may be granted a license to import specific products designated in its investment license, especially raw materials and even finished goods needed to develop a market for products that will eventually be produced in Vietnam. Companies that do not have their own import license must work through licensed traders, who typically charge a commission of between one and two percent of the value of the invoice. Under Vietnamese law, the importer is the consignee. Therefore, it is important to identify a reliable importer with the ability to clear merchandise through the port quickly and efficiently. If a licensed third-party importer is used, the importer will handle customs clearance. If a foreign invested firm imports products directly, it will have to make arrangements to handle customs clearance at the port. This can be burdensome. Many foreign firms have complained that the administration of customs is opaque, at best. Importers have charged that duty classifications for the same product differ from inspector to inspector, and that even the same inspector may charge different rates for the same item at different times. There is little effective recourse should the importer disagree with the classification.
Over the past few years, customs officials at many levels have been indicted on charges of corruption.
Wholesale
Both local and foreign-invested companies may act as wholesalers if their business registration certificates or investment licenses so state, or if the wholesale operations are established for the purpose of distributing their own products.
While a small number of foreign-invested warehousing operations offering modern and efficient facilities have been established in recent years, warehouses and other storage infrastructure in Vietnam are for the most part quite basic. Climate control is rare and security may be a problem. Tracking and processing of inventories is primarily manual, and the physical movement and handling of goods is on par with practice in other less developed nations in the region.
Wholesalers may or may not also be licensed importers. They typically offer both storage and transportation services, but the level of infrastructure and service is low by international standards. Warehouses in Vietnam often consist of little more than raw storage space with the bare minimum of environmental control, handling and security equipment. Many wholesalers are poorly capitalized and unable to upgrade their infrastructure. Recently, at least one U.S. firm has established third party, value-added wholesaling operations in HCMC. Other foreign firms are investing in “cold chain” port facilities, especially in the South.
Retail
The retail landscape is undergoing rapid transformation, providing more outlets for proper display and marketing of products. A number of Western-style mini-markets and convenience stores (e.g., MaxiMart, CityMart and Saigon Coop) are cropping up in the major urban areas. At the moment, these outlets are said to account for about five percent of total retail trade, and most consumer purchases continue to take place at traditional street-side shops or official wet and dry markets organized by district governments. Nevertheless, these new retail outlets are expanding rapidly in major cities and offer promising opportunities for distributing a wide range of U.S. consumer goods.
Shopping center developments are mushrooming. The Saigon Superbowl and Diamond Plaza in Ho Chi Minh City, the nation’s first large-scale entertainment and retail centers, only opened in 1996 and 2000. French hypermart developer CORA has opened a complex anchored by its flagship megastore in Dong Nai Province which is mobbed on weekends by shoppers from Ho Chi Minh City and the surrounding provinces. It has opened subsequent hypermarts in Binh Chanh and Cholon Districts of HCMC. Other developments include a very large retailing center (21,797 sq. m) in the mixed-use Thuan Kieu Plaza in Cho Lon, HCMC’s “Chinatown”, as well as SAVICO-Kinh Do Plaza, a pastel “strip mall” type development in the heart of District 1. Although Ho Chi Minh City leads this sector, similar developments are taking place in Hanoi.
Showrooms and service centers for specialized products such as electronics, appliances, automobiles, and industrial goods are also increasing. General Electric (GE) Company’s Appliance Division and Lighting Division have launched chains of retail outlets in the past
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