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Pakistan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2008
Business Monitor International, Dec 2008, Pages: 79


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Pakistan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Pakistan's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

In the Business Environment Rankings for Q408, Pakistan is once again found last out of the 14 markets assessed in the Asia Pacific region. While its business environment continues to be marred by low per capita healthcare and pharmaceutical spending, regulatory shortcomings (including strict pricing controls) and an unsettled political situation, the rapid population increase does offer some potential for pharmaceutical market growth. However, even this positive is overshadowed by the fact that public finances are not sufficient to support healthcare modernisation if the population growth goes unchecked.

While the government has made efforts to shift some of the financial responsibility to the private sector, it is clear that such services remain out of reach for the majority of low-income and rural populations. In fact, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO), around 423,000 people in Pakistan are presently in need of urgent healthcare. Flooding and violent unrest in the country have forced the people to relocate to temporary and overcrowded housing, leading to outbreaks of communicable diseases. Additionally, efforts to improve healthcare are likely to be derailed by unsustainable rates of population increase. The present situation where every woman is having 3.8 children on average is putting a strain on healthcare facilities, basic infrastructure as well as agricultural land. While Pakistan’s prime minister is astute enough to realise that two children per woman is an overly ambitious goal, he recently unveiled a plan to reduce annual population growth from 1.80% to 1.55% over the next five years. Welfare schemes are to receive the necessary budgetary support, with a focus being placed on education.

In order to improve access to medicines for the poor, the government also began working on a new essential drugs list, although the current period of political uncertainty will delay its introduction until at least 2009. The publication, originally expected in October 2008, will contain only low-priced generics. The present National Essential Drugs List (NEDL) also includes patented products, which are unaffordable for most of the population. However, the list is likely to attract industry criticism, as both domestic and foreign producers continue to call on the government to allow a price increase, in the face of falling margins due to rising costs.

In the short term, the country will continue to face uncertainty regarding its political and economic environment. The economy has been buffeted by rising oil and food prices over the past year, resulting in a serious deterioration in the fiscal and current accounts, as well as rampant inflation and the contraction of foreign investment over the past few months. Stabilisation of the situation would have an overall positive effect on Pakistan’s pharmaceutical market, especially in terms of multinational activities, but in the immediate future, economic concerns will lead to decisions similar to the July 2008 ban on the import of Indian medicines, following protests by the local industry.

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