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The 2009 Report on Communications Equipment Manufacturing: World Market Segmentation by City
ICON Group International, May 2009, Pages: 340
Market Potential Estimation Methodology
Overview
This study covers the world outlook for communications equipment manufacturing across more than 2000 cities. For the year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the city in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the city is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the cities of the world). This study gives, however, my estimates for the worldwide latent demand, or the P.I.E. for communications equipment manufacturing. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the world’s cities. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?
The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not observable, or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a market is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The “market” is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be latent demand at the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).
The latent demand for communications equipment manufacturing is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be lower either lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior on the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a city market.
Another reason why sales do not equate to latent demand is exchange rates. In this report, all figures assume the long-run efficiency of currency markets. Figures, therefore, equate values based on purchasing power parities across countries. Short-run distortions in the value of the dollar, therefore, do not figure into the estimates. Purchasing power parity estimates of country income were collected from official sources, and extrapolated using standard econometric models. The report uses the dollar as the currency of comparison, but not as a measure of transaction volume. The units used in this report are: US $ mln.
For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of “unit quantities”, only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends) and not adjusted for future dynamics in exchange rates (i.e., the figures reflect average exchange rates over recent history). If inflation rates or exchange rates vary in a substantial way compared to recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (when expressed in U.S. dollars, not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, latent demand can be typically higher than actual sales as there are often distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the level of latent demand.
As mentioned earlier, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. If fact, all the current products or services on the market can cease to exist in their present form (i.e., at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all the players can be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will still be an international latent demand for communications equipment manufacturing at the aggregate level. Product and service offering details, and the actual identity of the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand.
The Methodology
In order to estimate the latent demand for communications equipment manufacturing on a city-by-city basis, I used a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium in realized. For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility for the product in question.
Ignoring, for the moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption has been a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the average propensity to consume would fall. The average propensity to consume is the level of consumption divided by the level of income, or the slope of the line from the origin to the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and found it to be true in the short-run (mostly based on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the lower the average propensity to consume. This type of consumption function is labeled 'A' in the figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated that the marginal propensity to consume was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This type of consumption function is show as 'B' in the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The average propensity to consume is constant.
Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long run, households, industries or countries with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted). While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related and interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for communications equipment manufacturing across some 230 countries. The smallest have fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that all of these counties fall along a 'long-run' aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of these countries having wealth, current income dominates the latent demand for communications equipment manufacturing. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to have different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).
Given this overriding philosophy, I will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for communications equipment manufacturing. Since ICON Group has asked me to apply this methodology to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories, not just communications equipment manufacturing.
Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection
Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define “efficiently served”. Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key countries or cities are more likely to be at or near efficiency than others. These are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to others for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the world’s highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for “efficiency”. High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and can not assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income per capita). Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are examples of countries with high income per capita, but not assumed to be efficient, given low aggregate level of income (or gross domestic product); these countries have, however, high incomes per capita but may not benefit from the efficiencies derived from economies of scale associated with large economies. Only countries with high income per capita and large aggregate income are assumed efficient. This greatly restricts the pool of countries to those in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), like the United States, or the United Kingdom (which were earlier than other large OECD economies to liberalize their markets).
The selection of countries is further reduced by the fact that not all countries in the OECD report industry revenues at the category level. Countries that typically have ample data at the aggregate level that meet the efficiency criteria include the United States, the United Kingdom and in some cases France and Germany.
Latent demand is therefore estimated using data collected for relatively efficient markets from independent data sources (e.g. Euromonitor, Mintel, Thomson Financial Services, the U.S. Industrial Outlook, the World Resources Institute, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, various agencies from the United Nations, industry trade associations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank). Depending on original data sources used, the definition of “communications equipment manufacturing” is established. In the case of this report, the data were reported at the aggregate level, with no further breakdown or definition. In other words, any potential product or service that might be incorporated within communications equipment manufacturing falls under this category. Public sources rarely report data at the disaggregated level in order to protect private information from individual firms that might dominate a specific product-market. These sources will therefore aggregate across components of a category and report only the aggregate to the public. While private data are certainly available, this report only relies on public data at the aggregate level without reliance on the summation of various category components. In other words, this report does not aggregate a number of components to arrive at the “whole”. Rather, it starts with the “whole”, and estimates the whole for all cities and the world at large (without needing to know the specific parts that went into the whole in the first place).
Given this caveat, this study covers “communications equipment manufacturing” as defined by the North American Industrial Classification system or NAICS (pronounced “nakes”). For a complete definition of communications equipment manufacturing, please refer to the Web site at http://www.icongrouponline.com/codes/NAICS.html. The NAICS code for communications equipment manufacturing is 3342. It is for this definition of communications equipment manufacturing that the aggregate latent demand estimates are derived. “Communications equipment manufacturing” is specifically defined as follows:
3342
Communications Equipment Manufacturing
33421
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing wire telephone and data communications equipment. These products may be standalone or board-level components of a larger system. Examples of products made by these establishments are central office switching equipment, cordless telephones (except cellular), PBX equipment, telephones, telephone answering machines, LAN modems, multi-user modems, and other data communications equipment, such as bridges, routers, and gateways.
334210
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing wire telephone and data communications equipment. These products may be standalone or board-level components of a larger system. Examples of products made by these establishments are central office switching equipment, cordless telephones (except cellular), PBX equipment, telephones, telephone answering machines, LAN modems, multi-user modems, and other data communications equipment, such as bridges, routers, and gateways.
3342101
Telephone switching and switchboard equipment
33421010
Telephone switching and switchboard equipment
3342101000
Telephone switching and switchboard equipment
3342101001
Local central office telephone switching and switchboard equipment
3342101003
Toll central office telephone switching and switchboard equipment
3342101011
Private branch exchange telephone switching and switchboard equipment, up to 99 lines
3342101013
Private branch exchange telephone switching and switchboard equipment, 100 to 399 lines
3342101015
Private branch exchange telephone switching and switchboard equipment, 400 to 1,000 lines
3342101017
Private branch exchange telephone switching and switchboard equipment, over 1,000 lines
3342101021
Cellular mobile telephone switching and switchboard equipment
3342101023
Packet switching equipment
3342101025
All other telephone switching and switchboard equipment
3342101099
Parts, components, and subassemblies for telephone switching and switchboard equipment
33421011
Telephone switching and switchboard equipment
3342101100
Telephone switching and switchboard equipment
3342101105
Central office telephone switching equipment
3342101112
Private branch exchange telephone switching equipment, up to 399 lines
3342101115
Private branch exchange telephone switching equipment, 400 to 1,000 lines
3342101117
Private branch exchange telephone switching equipment, over 1,000 lines
3342101121
Cellular mobile telephone switching equipment
3342101123
Packet switching equipment
3342101125
Other telephone switching equipment
3342101199
Parts, components, and subassemblies for telephone switching equipment
3342104
Telephone and telegraph apparatus, carrier line equip, and nonconsumer modems
33421040
Telephone and telegraph apparatus, carrier line equipment (office and line repeaters and line terminating carrier equipment) and nonconsumer modems, including auxiliary sets
3342104000
Telephone and telegraph apparatus, carrier line equipment (office and line repeaters and line terminating carrier equipment) and nonconsumer modems, including auxiliary sets
3342104001
Analog repeaters and line transceivers
3342104003
Digital, copper wire repeaters and line transceivers
3342104005
Optical input~output digital repeaters and line transceivers
3342104011
Analog multiplex equipment
3342104013
Digital, copper wire multiplex equipment
3342104015
Optical input~output digital multiplex equipment
3342104021
All other analog subscriber loop carrier terminal and line equipment
3342104023
All other digital, copper wire subscriber loop carrier terminal and line equipment
3342104025
All other optical input~output digital subscriber loop carrier terminal and line equipment
3342104031
All other analog carrier line equipment
3342104033
All other digital carrier line equipment meeting or exceeding T1 standard (1.5 mbps)
3342104035
All other digital carrier line equipment
3342104041
Nonconsumer modems, up through 10,000 bps
3342104043
Nonconsumer modems, over 10,000 bps
33421041
Telephone and telegraph (wire) apparatus, carrier line equipment (office and line repeaters and line terminating carrier equipment) and nonconsumer modems, including auxiliary sets
3342104100
Telephone and telegraph (wire) apparatus, carrier line equipment (office and line repeaters and line terminating carrier equipment) and nonconsumer modems, including auxiliary sets
3342104102
Carrier line equipment, repeaters and line transceivers, analog and digital
3342104112
Carrier line equipment, multiplex equipment (including channel banks), analog and digital
3342104122
All other subscriber loop carrier terminal and line equipment, analog and digital
3342104132
All other carrier line equipment, analog and digital
3342104142
External modems for POTS, ISDN, DSL, and PSTN lines transmission (excluding FAX and/or modem boards for incorporation into computing equipment)
3342107
All other telephone-telegraph & data communication apparatus, incl telephone set
33421070
Other telephone and telegraph (wire) apparatus, including telephone sets, telephone answering, and fax machines
3342107000
All other telephone~telegraph (wire) and data communications apparatus, including telephone sets, telephone answering, and fax machines
3342107001
Single line and ISDN telephone sets
3342107003
Key telephone sets
3342107005
Public pay telephone sets
3342107007
Cordless handset telephone sets
3342107009
All other telephone sets and accessories
3342107021
Routers and gateways
3342107023
Bridges
3342107025
Terminal servers
3342107027
Concentrators
3342107029
All other data communications equipment
3342107051
Voice frequency equipment
3342107055
Telephone key systems equipment
3342107059
Video teleconferencing equipment
3342107061
Voice mail equipment
3342107063
Voice response equipment
3342107065
Automated attendance equipment
3342107067
Automatic call distributors
3342107069
All other voice or call processing equipment
3342107091
Facsimile communication equipment
3342107097
All other telephone~telegraph and data communications equipment
3342107099
Parts, components, and subassemblies for telephone~telegraph and data communications equipment
33421071
Other telephone and telegraph (wire) apparatus, including telephone sets, telephone answering, and fax machines
3342107100
Other telephone and telegraph (wire) apparatus, including telephone sets, telephone answering, and fax machines
3342107101
Telephone sets, single line and ISDN
3342107103
Telephone sets, key
3342107105
Telephone sets, public pay telephone equipment
3342107107
Telephone sets, cordless handsets
3342107109
Other telephone sets and accessories (headsets, etc.)
3342107122
Data communications equipment (including routers, gateways, bridges, terminal servers, and concentrators)
3342107151
Voice frequency equipment
3342107162
Voice/call message processing equipment, including answering devices
3342107191
Facsimile communication equipment (complete) (excluding FAX and/or modem boards for incorporation into computing equipment)
3342107197
All other telephone and telegraph equipment, including telephone key systems and teleconferencing equipment
3342107199
Parts, components, and subassemblies for other telephone and telegraph equipment
334210M
Miscellaneous receipts
334210P
Primary products
334210S
Secondary products
334210SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
33422
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing radio and television broadcast and wireless communications equipment. Examples of products made by these establishments are: transmitting and receiving antennas, cable television equipment, GPS equipment, pagers, cellular phones, mobile communications equipment, and radio and television studio and broadcasting equipment.
334220
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing radio and television broadcast and wireless communications equipment. Examples of products made by these establishments are: transmitting and receiving antennas, cable television equipment, GPS equipment, pagers, cellular phones, mobile communications equipment, and radio and television studio and broadcasting equipment.
3342201
Communications systems and equipment except broadcast
33422010
Communication systems and equipment, except broadcast, but including microwave equipment, and space satellites
3342201000
Communication systems and equipment, except broadcast, but including microwave equipment, and space satellites
33422011
Radio station type, other than cellular
3342201100
Communication systems and equipment, including microwave equipment, and space satellites (except broadcast)
3342201101
Radio station communications systems and equipment, fixed
33422012
Cellular system equipment
3342201201
Analog cellular communications systems and equipment
3342201204
Digital cellular communications systems and equipment
3342201207
All other conventional and trunked mobile communications systems and equipment
3342201209
All other mobile communications systems and equipment
33422013
Other communications systems and equipment
3342201301
Amateur radio station communications systems and equipment
3342201303
Broadcast (sound and TV) radio station communications systems and equipment
3342201305
Earth exploration radio station communications systems and equipment
3342201307
Meteorological radio station communications systems and equipment
3342201309
Intersatellite radio station communications systems and equipment
3342201311
Telecommand radio station communications systems and equipment
3342201313
Telemetry radio station communications systems and equipment
3342201315
Radionavigational and locational radio station communications systems and equipment
3342201317
Aeronautical radio station communications systems and equipment
3342201319
All other radio station communications systems and equipment, nec
33422014
All other communcations systems and equipment
3342201401
Checkout, monitoring, evaluation, and other electronic support equipment for communications equipment
3342201405
Antenna systems below 890 MHZ
3342201407
Antenna systems 890 MHZ and above
3342201411
OC~1 fiber optics equipment meeting SONET standards
3342201412
OC~2 and OC~3 fiber optics equipment meeting SONET standards
3342201413
OC~4 up through OC~9 fiber optics equipment meeting SONET standards
3342201414
Fiber optics equipment greater than OC~9 meeting SONET standards
3342201419
Fiber optics equipment not meeting SONET standards
3342201421
All other carrier equipment, nec
3342201425
All other communications systems and equipment
3342202
BROADCAST, STUDIO, AND RELATED ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT
33422021
Broadcast, studio, and related electronic equipment
3342202100
Broadcast, studio, and related electronic equipment
3342202101
Broadcast, studio, and related electronic equipment, audio (excluding consumer and P.A. types), amplifiers and preamplifiers
3342202104
Broadcast, studio, and related electronic equipment, audio (excluding consumer and P.A. types), control consoles and switchers
3342202109
Broadcast, studio, and related electronic equipment, audio (excluding consumer and P.A. types), other (power suppliers, terminal equipment, broadcast recorders, etc.)
3342202113
Broadcast, studio, and related electronic equipment, video (excluding consumer and P.A. types), including amplifiers, television cameras, and tape recorders
3342202121
Broadcast, studio, and related electronic equipment, AM and FM transmitters
3342202124
Broadcast, studio, and related electronic equipment, TV transmitters
3342202127
Broadcast, studio, and related electronic equipment, other transmitters, translators, RF power amplifiers, and related equipment
3342202129
Studio transmission links (STL) and remote pickup equipment
3342202132
Cable TV (master antennae and CATV equipment), headend equipment (antennae baluns, carrier generators, headend control units, single and broadband preamplifiers and strip amplifiers, etc.)
3342202138
Cable TV (master antennae and CATV equipment), subscriber equipment (decoders, switchers, wall outlet taps, distribution amplifiers, power suppliers, directional couplers, splitters, etc.)
3342202141
Cable TV (master antennae and CATV equipment), broadcasting transmitting antennae and community antennae systems
3342202144
Closed circuit television systems and equipment (excluding broadcast and consumer equipment)
3342202147
Other broadcast, studio, theater, and commercial sound equipment (excluding studio lighting equipment and radiating and supporting towers) (sold separately)
3342202149
Home antennae
3342202153
Auto antennae
3342202199
Parts and accessories for broadcast, studio, and related electronic equipment (sold separately)
3342203
Broadcast, studio, and related electronic equipment
33422030
Broadcast, studio, and related electronic equipment
3342203000
Broadcast, studio, and related electronic equipment
3342203001
Audio amplifiers and preamplifiers
3342203004
Audio control consoles and switchers
3342203009
All other broadcast and studio audio equipment
3342203011
Video amplifiers
3342203014
Video television cameras
3342203015
Video tape recorders
3342203019
All other broadcast and studio video equipment
3342203021
AM and FM transmitters
3342203024
TV transmitters
3342203027
All other broadcast transmission line equipment
3342203029
Studio transmission links and remote pickup equipment
3342203032
Cable TV head end equipment
3342203035
Cable TV subscriber converters
3342203038
Cable TV subscriber equipment
3342203041
Cable TV broadcasting transmitting antennae and community antennae systems
3342203044
Closed circuit television systems and equipment
3342203047
All other broadcast, studio, theatre, and commercial sound equipment
3342203051
Magnetic recording and reproducing heads including audio, video, digital, and instrumentation
3342203099
Parts and accessories for broadcast, studio, and related electronic equipment
3342207
Microwave components and devices, except antennae, tubes, and semiconductors
33422070
Microwave components and devices, except antennae, tubes and semiconductors
3342207000
Microwave components and devices, except antennae, tubes, and semiconductors
3342207005
Ferrite microwave components and devices, except antennae, tubes, and semiconductors
3342207010
Attenuators, dummy loads, high and low power terminations
3342207015
Cavities
3342207020
Couplers
3342207025
Reactive microwave components, nec
3342207030
Switches, coaxial and waveguide
3342207035
Rigid waveguide and fittings
3342207040
Flexible waveguides and fittings
3342207045
All other microwave components, except ferrite devices
3342207050
Microwave subassemblies
334220M
Miscellaneous receipts
334220P
Primary products
334220S
Secondary products
334220SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
33429
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing communications equipment (except telephone apparatus, and radio and television broadcast, and wireless communications equipment).
334290
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing communications equipment (except telephone apparatus, and radio and television broadcast, and wireless communications equipment).
3342901
Alarm systems, including electric sirens and horns
33429010
Alarm systems, including electric sirens and horns
3342901000
Alarm systems, including electric sirens and horns
33429011
Alarm systems, including electric sirens and horns
3342901100
Alarm systems, including electric sirens and horns
3342901101
Alarm systems, intrusion detection, local
33429012
Central station intrusion detection alarm systems
3342901201
Central station intrusion detection alarm systems
33429013
Chamber type ionization smoke and heat detection alarms
3342901301
Chamber type ionization smoke and heat detection alarms
33429014
All other smoke and heat detection alarms, including photo cell type
3342901401
All other smoke and heat detection alarms, including photo cell type
33429015
Direct connect fire detection and prevention alarm systems
3342901501
Direct connect fire detection and prevention alarm systems
33429016
All other alarm systems
3342901601
Direct connect intrusion detection alarm systems
3342901603
Hold~up intrusion detection alarm systems
3342901605
Automotive intrusion detection alarm systems
3342901607
Central station fire detection and prevention alarm systems
3342901609
All other intercommunication and alarm systems
3342902
Vehicular and pedestrian traffic control equip. incl. railway signals & attach
33429020
Vehicular and pedestrian traffic control equipment, electric railway signals and attachments
3342902000
Vehicular and pedestrian traffic control equipment, electric railway signals and attachments
33429021
Vehicular and pedestrian traffic control equipment, including electric railway signals and attachments
3342902100
Vehicular and pedestrian traffic control equipment, including electric railway signals and attachments
3342902101
Vehicular and pedestrian traffic control signal heads
3342902102
Vehicular and pedestrian traffic control equipment
3342902103
Vehicular and pedestrian electronic and electromechanical traffic controllers, detectors, and sensors
33429022
Electric railway signals and safety control equipment
3342902201
Electric highway grade railway crossing signals
3342902203
All other electric railway signal systems and safety control equipment
3342903
Intercommunication systems, incl inductive paging systems
33429030
Intercommunications systems, including inductive paging systems (selective paging), except telephone and telegraph
3342903000
Intercommunications systems, including inductive paging systems
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