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The 2009 Report on Manufacturing Dairy Products from Raw Milk, Processed Milk, and Dairy Substitutes: World Market Segmentation by City
ICON Group International, May 2009, Pages: 351
Market Potential Estimation Methodology
Overview
This study covers the world outlook for manufacturing dairy products from raw milk, processed milk, and dairy substitutes across more than 2000 cities. For the year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the city in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the city is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the cities of the world). This study gives, however, my estimates for the worldwide latent demand, or the P.I.E. for manufacturing dairy products from raw milk, processed milk, and dairy substitutes. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the world’s cities. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?
The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not observable, or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a market is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The “market” is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be latent demand at the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).
The latent demand for manufacturing dairy products from raw milk, processed milk, and dairy substitutes is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be lower either lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior on the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a city market.
Another reason why sales do not equate to latent demand is exchange rates. In this report, all figures assume the long-run efficiency of currency markets. Figures, therefore, equate values based on purchasing power parities across countries. Short-run distortions in the value of the dollar, therefore, do not figure into the estimates. Purchasing power parity estimates of country income were collected from official sources, and extrapolated using standard econometric models. The report uses the dollar as the currency of comparison, but not as a measure of transaction volume. The units used in this report are: US $ mln.
For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of “unit quantities”, only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends) and not adjusted for future dynamics in exchange rates (i.e., the figures reflect average exchange rates over recent history). If inflation rates or exchange rates vary in a substantial way compared to recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (when expressed in U.S. dollars, not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, latent demand can be typically higher than actual sales as there are often distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the level of latent demand.
As mentioned earlier, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. If fact, all the current products or services on the market can cease to exist in their present form (i.e., at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all the players can be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will still be an international latent demand for manufacturing dairy products from raw milk, processed milk, and dairy substitutes at the aggregate level. Product and service offering details, and the actual identity of the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand.
The Methodology
In order to estimate the latent demand for manufacturing dairy products from raw milk, processed milk, and dairy substitutes on a city-by-city basis, I used a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium in realized. For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility for the product in question.
Ignoring, for the moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption has been a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the average propensity to consume would fall. The average propensity to consume is the level of consumption divided by the level of income, or the slope of the line from the origin to the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and found it to be true in the short-run (mostly based on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the lower the average propensity to consume. This type of consumption function is labeled 'A' in the figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated that the marginal propensity to consume was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This type of consumption function is show as 'B' in the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The average propensity to consume is constant.
Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long run, households, industries or countries with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted). While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related and interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for manufacturing dairy products from raw milk, processed milk, and dairy substitutes across some 230 countries. The smallest have fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that all of these counties fall along a 'long-run' aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of these countries having wealth, current income dominates the latent demand for manufacturing dairy products from raw milk, processed milk, and dairy substitutes. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to have different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).
Given this overriding philosophy, I will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for manufacturing dairy products from raw milk, processed milk, and dairy substitutes. Since ICON Group has asked me to apply this methodology to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories, not just manufacturing dairy products from raw milk, processed milk, and dairy substitutes.
Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection
Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define “efficiently served”. Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key countries or cities are more likely to be at or near efficiency than others. These are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to others for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the world’s highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for “efficiency”. High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and can not assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income per capita). Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are examples of countries with high income per capita, but not assumed to be efficient, given low aggregate level of income (or gross domestic product); these countries have, however, high incomes per capita but may not benefit from the efficiencies derived from economies of scale associated with large economies. Only countries with high income per capita and large aggregate income are assumed efficient. This greatly restricts the pool of countries to those in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), like the United States, or the United Kingdom (which were earlier than other large OECD economies to liberalize their markets).
The selection of countries is further reduced by the fact that not all countries in the OECD report industry revenues at the category level. Countries that typically have ample data at the aggregate level that meet the efficiency criteria include the United States, the United Kingdom and in some cases France and Germany.
Latent demand is therefore estimated using data collected for relatively efficient markets from independent data sources (e.g. Euromonitor, Mintel, Thomson Financial Services, the U.S. Industrial Outlook, the World Resources Institute, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, various agencies from the United Nations, industry trade associations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank). Depending on original data sources used, the definition of “manufacturing dairy products from raw milk, processed milk, and dairy substitutes” is established. In the case of this report, the data were reported at the aggregate level, with no further breakdown or definition. In other words, any potential product or service that might be incorporated within manufacturing dairy products from raw milk, processed milk, and dairy substitutes falls under this category. Public sources rarely report data at the disaggregated level in order to protect private information from individual firms that might dominate a specific product-market. These sources will therefore aggregate across components of a category and report only the aggregate to the public. While private data are certainly available, this report only relies on public data at the aggregate level without reliance on the summation of various category components. In other words, this report does not aggregate a number of components to arrive at the “whole”. Rather, it starts with the “whole”, and estimates the whole for all cities and the world at large (without needing to know the specific parts that went into the whole in the first place).
Given this caveat, this study covers “manufacturing dairy products from raw milk, processed milk, and dairy substitutes” as defined by the North American Industrial Classification system or NAICS (pronounced “nakes”). For a complete definition of manufacturing dairy products from raw milk, processed milk, and dairy substitutes, please refer to the Web site at http://www.icongrouponline.com/codes/NAICS.html. The NAICS code for manufacturing dairy products from raw milk, processed milk, and dairy substitutes is 3115. It is for this definition of manufacturing dairy products from raw milk, processed milk, and dairy substitutes that the aggregate latent demand estimates are derived. “Manufacturing dairy products from raw milk, processed milk, and dairy substitutes” is specifically defined as follows:
3115
This industry group comprises establishments that manufacture dairy products from raw milk, processed milk, and dairy substitutes.
31151
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in one or more of the following: (1) manufacturing dairy products (except frozen) from raw milk and/or processed milk products; (2) manufacturing dairy substitutes (except frozen) from soybeans and other nondairy substances; and (3) manufacturing dry, condensed, concentrated, and evaporated dairy and dairy substitute products.
311511
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in (1) manufacturing processed milk products, such as pasteurized milk or cream and sour cream and/or (2) manufacturing fluid milk dairy substitutes from soybeans and other nondairy substances.
3115111
Bulk fluid milk and cream
31151111
Fluid whole milk, bulk sales
3115111111
Fluid whole milk, bulk sales
31151112
Other bulk fluid milk and cream
3115111221
Fluid skim milk, bulk sales
3115111231
Fluid cream and buttermilk, bulk sales
3115111241
Other bulk fluid milk and cream (eggnog, lowfat, etc.)
3115114
Packaged fluid milk and related products
31151141
Fluid whole milk, packaged (including U.H.T.)
3115114111
Fluid whole milk, packaged (including U.H.T.)
31151142
Lowfat milk, 0.5-2.0% butterfat, packaged (including U.H.T.)
3115114221
Lowfat milk, packaged (including U.H.T.)
31151143
Skim milk, packaged (including U.H.T.)
3115114331
Skim milk, packaged (including U.H.T.)
31151144
Creams, half-and-half, and dairy-based whipped toppings
3115114441
Heavy cream, packaged (whipping cream containing 36 percent butterfat or more)
3115114451
Light cream, packaged (coffee cream containing less than 36 percent butterfat)
3115114461
Sour cream, unflavored, packaged
3115114471
Half and half, packaged
3115114481
Whipped topping, butterfat base, packaged
3115115
PACKAGED FLUID MILK AND RELATED PRODUCTS, INCLUDING CARTONS, BOTTLES, CANS, AND DISPENSER CANS, EXCEPT U.H.T.
31151151
Fluid whole milk, packaged, except U.H.T.
3115115111
Fluid whole milk, packaged, except U.H.T.
31151152
Lowfat milk, packaged, except U.H.T.
3115115211
Lowfat milk, packaged, except U.H.T.
31151153
Skim milk, packaged, except U.H.T.
3115115311
Skim milk, packaged, except U.H.T.
31151154
All other packaged fluid milk and related products, including cartons, bottles, cans, and dispenser cans
3115115441
Heavy cream, packaged (whipping cream containing 36 percent butterfat or more)
3115115451
Light cream, packaged (coffee cream containing less than 36 percent butterfat)
3115115461
Sour cream, unflavored, packaged
3115115471
Half and half, packaged
3115115481
Whipped topping, butterfat base, packaged
3115117
Cottage cheese (including farmers cheese, pot cheese, and bakers cheese)
31151171
Cottage cheese (including bakers’, pot, and farmers’ cheese)
3115117111
Cottage cheese (including bakers’, pot, and farmers’ cheese), manufactured and creamed in same establishment
3115117121
Cottage cheese (including bakers’, pot, and farmers’ cheese), manufactured in same plant, sold as curd (not creamed)
3115117131
Cottage cheese (including bakers’, pot, and farmers’ cheese), creamed in same plant from purchased curd
311511A
Yogurt, except frozen
311511A1
Yogurt, except frozen
311511A111
Regular and lowfat yogurt, except frozen
311511A121
Nonfat yogurt, except frozen
311511D
Perishable dairy product substitutes
311511D1
Perishable dairy product substitutes
311511D111
Perishable flavored dip substitutes
311511D121
Perishable whipped topping, nonbutterfat base (including pressure can type)
311511D131
Perishable coffee whitener substitutes
311511D141
Perishable sour cream substitutes
311511D151
Perishable flavored milk drink substitutes (chocolate drink, etc.)
311511D161
Other perishable dairy product substitutes
311511G
Other milk products, n.e.c.
311511G1
Other packaged milk products
311511G111
Flavored sour cream dips
311511G121
Flavored milks (chocolate milk, etc.)
311511G131
Other milk products (eggnog, buttermilk, acidophilus milk, reconstituted milk, etc.)
311511M
Miscellaneous receipts
311511P
Primary products
311511S
Secondary products
311511SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
311512
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing creamery butter from milk and/or processed milk products.
3115120
CREAMERY BUTTER MANUFACTURING
31151201
Creamery butter
3115120111
Creamery butter, shipped in bulk (containers more than 3 lb)
3115120121
Creamery butter, shipped in consumer packages (containers 3 lb or less)
3115120131
Creamery butter, anhydrous milkfat (butteroil)
3115121
Creamery butter
311512M
Miscellaneous receipts
311512P
Primary products
311512S
Secondary products
311512SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
311513
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in (1) manufacturing cheese products (except cottage cheese) from raw milk and/or processed milk products and/or (2) manufacturing cheese substitutes from soybean and other nondairy substances.
3115131
NATURAL CHEESE, EXCEPT COTTAGE CHEESE (CHEDDAR, SWISS, ITALIAN, BRICK, CREAM, GRATED, DRIED, ETC.)
31151311
Natural cheese, except cottage cheese (cheddar, Swiss, Italian, brick, cream, grated, dried, etc.)
3115131111
Natural cheese, excluding lowfat natural cheese (except cottage cheese), shipped in consumer packages or containers (3 lb or less)
3115131121
Natural cheese, excluding lowfat natural cheese (except cottage cheese), shipped in packages or containers (more than 3 lb) or in bulk
3115131131
Lowfat natural cheese, except cottage cheese, shipped in consumer packages or containers (3 lb or less)
3115131141
Lowfat natural cheese, except cottage cheese, shipped in packages or containers (more than 3 lb) or in bulk
3115133
Natural cheese, except cottage cheese
311513302
American-type cheese
31151330201
Cheddar cheese
31151330211
Other American-type cheese
311513303
Italian-type cheese
31151330301
Mozzarella cheese
31151330311
Other Italian-type cheese
311513305
Swiss cheese
311513307
Cream and Neufchatel cheese
311513311
Other natural cheese, except cottage
3115134
Processed cheese and related products
31151341
Process cheese, shipped in consumer packages or containers (3 lb or less)
311513411
Processed cheese
3115134111
Process cheese, shipped in consumer packages or containers (3 lb or less)
311513413
Cheese food
311513415
Cheese spread
311513419
Other related processed cheese products
31151342
All other process cheese and related products
3115134221
Process cheese, shipped in packages or containers (more than 3 lb) or in bulk
3115134231
Cheese food
3115134241
Cheese spread
3115134251
Other related cheese products, including flavored cheese dips
3115135
Cheese substitutes
3115137
CHEESE SUBSTITUTES AND IMITATIONS
31151371
Cheese substitutes and imitations
3115137111
Products substituting for natural cheese
3115137121
Products substituting for processed cheese or related products
311513A
RAW LIQUID WHEY
311513A1
Raw liquid whey
311513A100
Raw liquid whey
311513M
Miscellaneous receipts
311513P
Primary products
311513S
Secondary products
311513SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
311514
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing dry, condensed, and evaporated milk and dairy substitute products.
3115141
Dry milk products and mixtures incl. ndm, and all feed grade dry milk
31151411
Nonfat dry milk, shipped in consumer type packages (containers 3 lb or less)
3115141111
Nonfat dry milk, shipped in consumer type packages (containers 3 lb or less)
31151412
Infants’ formula, dry milk type, shipped in consumer type packages (containers 3 lb or less)
3115141221
Infants’ formula, dry milk type, shipped in consumer type packages (containers 3 lb or less)
31151413
Other dry milk products (instant chocolate milk, weight control products, whole milk powder, malted milk powder, etc.), shipped in consumer type packages (containers 3 lb or less)
3115141331
Other dry milk products (instant chocolate milk, weight control products, whole milk powder, malted milk powder, etc.), shipped in consumer type packages (containers 3 lb or less)
31151414
Dry whole milk, food grade (bakeries, confectioners, meat packers, etc.), shipped in bulk (containers more than 3 lb)
3115141441
Dry whole milk, food grade (bakeries, confectioners, meat packers, etc.), shipped in bulk (containers more than 3 lb)
31151415
Nonfat dry milk, food grade (bakeries, confectioners, meat packers, etc.), shipped in bulk (containers more than 3 lb)
3115141551
Nonfat dry milk, food grade (bakeries, confectioners, meat packers, etc.), shipped in bulk (containers more than 3 lb)
31151416
Dry and modified dry whey products (including dry lactose), food grade (bakeries, confectioners, meat packers, etc.) shipped in bulk (containers more than 3 lb)
3115141661
Dry whey, food grade (bakeries, confectioners, meat packers, etc.), shipped in bulk (containers more than 3 lb)
3115141671
Modified dry whey products (whey protein concentrates, etc.), food grade (bakeries, confectioners, meat packers, etc.), shipped in bulk (containers more than 3 lb)
3115141681
Dry lactose, food grade (bakeries, confectioners, meat packers, etc.), shipped in bulk (containers more than 3 lb)
31151417
Other food grade dry milk products, shipped in bulk (containers more than 3 lb)
3115141791
Other food grade dry milk products, shipped in bulk (containers more than 3 lb)
31151418
Feed grade dry milk products and mixtures (dry milk, dry buttermilk, dry whey, etc.), shipped in bulk (containers more than 3 lb)
31151418A1
Feed grade dry milk products and mixtures (dry milk, dry buttermilk, dry whey, etc.), shipped in bulk (containers more than 3 lb)
3115144
Canned milk products, consumer cans incl evap. and condensed, excl. substitutes
31151441
Canned evaporated milk, condensed milk, and milk~based dietary supplements and weight control products (consumer type cans), except substitutes
3115144111
Canned evaporated milk (consumer type cans), except substitutes
3115144121
Canned condensed milk (consumer type cans), except substitutes
3115144131
Canned milk~based dietary supplements, weight control products (consumer type cans), except substitutes
31151442
Canned milk~based infants’ formula, liquid (consumer type cans), except substitutes
3115144241
Canned milk~based infants’ formula, liquid (consumer type cans), except substitutes
31151443
Other canned milk products, including canned whole milk (consumer type cans) , except substitutes
3115144351
Other canned milk products, including canned whole milk (consumer type cans), except substitutes
3115145
CANNED MILK PRODUCTS (CONSUMER_TYPE CANS), EXCEPT SUBSTITUTES
31151451
Canned evaporated milk, condensed milk, and milk_based dietary supplements and weight control products (consumer_type cans), except substitutes
3115145111
Canned evaporated milk (consumer_type cans), except substitutes
3115145121
Canned condensed milk (consumer_type cans), except substitutes
3115145131
Canned milk_based dietary supplements, weight control products (consumer_ type cans), except substitutes
31151452
Canned milk_based infants’ formula, liquid (consumer_type cans), except substitutes
3115145241
Canned milk_based infants’ formula, liquid (consumer_type cans), except substitutes
31151453
Other canned milk products, including canned whole milk (consumer_type cans) , except substitutes
3115145351
Other canned milk products, including canned whole milk (consumer_type cans), except substitutes
31151454
U.H.T. fluid milk
3115145441
U.H.T. fluid whole milk
3115145442
U.H.T. lowfat milk, packaged
3115145443
U.H.T. skim milk, packaged
3115147
Concentrated milk products shipped in bulk (drums, tanks etc.) excl. substitutes
31151471
Concentrated milk products shipped in bulk (barrels, drums, and tanks)
3115147111
Concentrated milk products shipped in bulk (barrels, drums, and tanks), feed grade, including concentrated whey and buttermilk
3115147121
Concentrated whey (in terms of solids) shipped in bulk (barrels, drums, and tanks), food grade (except all types of ice cream mixes)
3115147131
All other concentrated milk products shipped in bulk (drums, barrels, and tanks), food grade (except ice cream and ice cream mixes)
311514A
Ice cream mixes and related products incl yogurt, ice milk, and milkshake mixes
311514A1
All ice cream mixes
311514A111
Ice cream mix, excluding lowfat and nonfat
311514A121
Lowfat ice cream mix
311514A131
Nonfat ice cream mix
311514A2
Sherbet, yogurt, milkshake, and other milk_based mixes
311514A241
Sherbet mix
311514A251
Yogurt mix
311514A261
Milkshake mix
311514A271
Other milk_based mixes
311514D
Dairy product substitutes, incl. dry coffee whiteners, and infants formula etc.
311514D1
Dairy product substitutes
311514D111
Dry coffee whitener dairy substitutes
311514D121
Dry infants’ formula dairy substitutes
311514D131
Dry sour cream dairy substitutes
311514D141
Other dry dairy substitutes, including whipped topping, etc.
311514D151
Canned liquid infants’ formula dairy substitutes
311514D161
Other canned dairy product substitutes, including dietary supplements and weight control products
311514M
Miscellaneous receipts
311514P
Primary products
311514S
Secondary products
311514SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
31152
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing ice cream, frozen yogurts, frozen ices, sherbets, frozen tofu, and other frozen desserts (except bakery products).
311520
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing ice cream, frozen yogurts, frozen ices, sherbets, frozen tofu, and other frozen desserts (except bakery products).
3115200
ICE CREAM AND FROZEN DESSERT MANUFACTURING
31152001
Ice cream, excluding lowfat and nonfat (including custards), shipped in bulk (containers 3 gal or more)
3115200111
Ice cream, excluding lowfat and nonfat (including custards), shipped in bulk (containers 3 gal or more)
31152002
Ice cream, excluding lowfat and nonfat (including custards), shipped in container sizes (less than 3 gal)
3115200221
Ice cream, excluding lowfat and nonfat (including custards), shipped in container sizes (less than 3 gal)
31152003
Ice cream, excluding lowfat and nonfat (including custards), novelty forms
3115200331
Ice cream, excluding lowfat and nonfat (including custards), novelty forms
31152004
Lowfat and nonfat ice cream (including custards)
3115200441
Lowfat ice cream (including custards), shipped in bulk (containers 3 gal or more)
3115200451
Lowfat ice cream (including custards), shipped in container sizes (less than 3 gal)
3115200461
Lowfat ice cream (including custards), novelty forms
3115200471
Nonfat ice cream (including custards), shipped in bulk (containers 3 gal or more)
3115200481
Nonfat ice cream (including custards), shipped in container sizes (less than 3 gal)
3115200491
Nonfat ice cream (including custards), novelty forms
31152005
Other frozen desserts (yogurt, sherbet, water ices, mellorine, frozen pudding, etc.)
31152005A1
Regular and lowfat frozen yogurt
31152005B1
Nonfat frozen yogurt
31152005C1
Sherbet, shipped in bulk (containers 3 gal or more)
31152005D1
Sherbet, shipped in all other sizes, including novelty forms
31152005E1
Water ices containing no real fruit or fruit juice
31152005F1
Ices containing some real fruit or fruit juice
31152005G1
Mellorine and similar frozen desserts containing fats other than butterfat (including tofu_type)
31152005H1
Other frozen desserts (frozen pudding, etc.)
3115201
Ice cream and frozen desserts
311520114
Bulk ice cream or custard with conventional fat content ( 3 gallons or more)
311520115
Consumer-size ice cream and custard (16 oz. to less than 3 gallons)
31152011502
Superpremium and premium
31152011503
Regular and economy
311520117
Novelty forms of ice cream & custard (conventional fat content)
311520119
Reduced fat/nonfat ice cream (ice milk); all forms (bulk, consumer, or novelty)
311520121
Frozen yogurt; including nonfat
311520123
Other frozen desserts; e.g., tofu, mellorine, sherbets, sorbets, ices, & pops
3115201A
Conventional ice cream or custard and reduced fat ice cream (ice milk)
3115201B
Frozen dairy and nondairy desserts other than ice cream or ice milk
311520M
Miscellaneous receipts
311520P
Primary products
311520S
Secondary products
311520SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing
Based on the aggregate view of manufacturing dairy products from raw milk, processed milk, and dairy substitutes as defined above, data were then collected for as many similar countries and cities as possible for that same definition, at the same level of the value chain. This generates a convenience sample from which comparable figures are available. If the series in question do not reflect the same accounting period, then adjustments are made. In order to eliminate short-term effects of business cycles, the series are smoothed using an 2 year moving average weighting scheme (longer weighting schemes do not substantially change the results). If data are available for a country, b
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