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The 2009 Report on Manufacturing Navigational, Measuring, Electromedical, and Control Instruments: World Market Segmentation by City
ICON Group International, May 2009, Pages: 374
Market Potential Estimation Methodology
Overview
This study covers the world outlook for manufacturing navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments across more than 2000 cities. For the year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the city in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the city is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the cities of the world). This study gives, however, my estimates for the worldwide latent demand, or the P.I.E. for manufacturing navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the world’s cities. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?
The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not observable, or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a market is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The “market” is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be latent demand at the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).
The latent demand for manufacturing navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be lower either lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior on the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a city market.
Another reason why sales do not equate to latent demand is exchange rates. In this report, all figures assume the long-run efficiency of currency markets. Figures, therefore, equate values based on purchasing power parities across countries. Short-run distortions in the value of the dollar, therefore, do not figure into the estimates. Purchasing power parity estimates of country income were collected from official sources, and extrapolated using standard econometric models. The report uses the dollar as the currency of comparison, but not as a measure of transaction volume. The units used in this report are: US $ mln.
For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of “unit quantities”, only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends) and not adjusted for future dynamics in exchange rates (i.e., the figures reflect average exchange rates over recent history). If inflation rates or exchange rates vary in a substantial way compared to recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (when expressed in U.S. dollars, not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, latent demand can be typically higher than actual sales as there are often distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the level of latent demand.
As mentioned earlier, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. If fact, all the current products or services on the market can cease to exist in their present form (i.e., at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all the players can be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will still be an international latent demand for manufacturing navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments at the aggregate level. Product and service offering details, and the actual identity of the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand.
The Methodology
In order to estimate the latent demand for manufacturing navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments on a city-by-city basis, I used a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium in realized. For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility for the product in question.
Ignoring, for the moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption has been a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the average propensity to consume would fall. The average propensity to consume is the level of consumption divided by the level of income, or the slope of the line from the origin to the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and found it to be true in the short-run (mostly based on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the lower the average propensity to consume. This type of consumption function is labeled 'A' in the figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated that the marginal propensity to consume was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This type of consumption function is show as 'B' in the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The average propensity to consume is constant.
Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long run, households, industries or countries with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted). While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related and interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for manufacturing navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments across some 230 countries. The smallest have fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that all of these counties fall along a 'long-run' aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of these countries having wealth, current income dominates the latent demand for manufacturing navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to have different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).
Given this overriding philosophy, I will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for manufacturing navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments. Since ICON Group has asked me to apply this methodology to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories, not just manufacturing navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments.
Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection
Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define “efficiently served”. Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key countries or cities are more likely to be at or near efficiency than others. These are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to others for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the world’s highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for “efficiency”. High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and can not assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income per capita). Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are examples of countries with high income per capita, but not assumed to be efficient, given low aggregate level of income (or gross domestic product); these countries have, however, high incomes per capita but may not benefit from the efficiencies derived from economies of scale associated with large economies. Only countries with high income per capita and large aggregate income are assumed efficient. This greatly restricts the pool of countries to those in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), like the United States, or the United Kingdom (which were earlier than other large OECD economies to liberalize their markets).
The selection of countries is further reduced by the fact that not all countries in the OECD report industry revenues at the category level. Countries that typically have ample data at the aggregate level that meet the efficiency criteria include the United States, the United Kingdom and in some cases France and Germany.
Latent demand is therefore estimated using data collected for relatively efficient markets from independent data sources (e.g. Euromonitor, Mintel, Thomson Financial Services, the U.S. Industrial Outlook, the World Resources Institute, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, various agencies from the United Nations, industry trade associations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank). Depending on original data sources used, the definition of “manufacturing navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments” is established. In the case of this report, the data were reported at the aggregate level, with no further breakdown or definition. In other words, any potential product or service that might be incorporated within manufacturing navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments falls under this category. Public sources rarely report data at the disaggregated level in order to protect private information from individual firms that might dominate a specific product-market. These sources will therefore aggregate across components of a category and report only the aggregate to the public. While private data are certainly available, this report only relies on public data at the aggregate level without reliance on the summation of various category components. In other words, this report does not aggregate a number of components to arrive at the “whole”. Rather, it starts with the “whole”, and estimates the whole for all cities and the world at large (without needing to know the specific parts that went into the whole in the first place).
Given this caveat, this study covers “manufacturing navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments” as defined by the North American Industrial Classification system or NAICS (pronounced “nakes”). For a complete definition of manufacturing navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments, please refer to the Web site at http://www.icongrouponline.com/codes/NAICS.html. The NAICS code for manufacturing navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments is 3345. It is for this definition of manufacturing navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments that the aggregate latent demand estimates are derived. “Manufacturing navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments” is specifically defined as follows:
3345
Navigational, Measuring, Electromedical, and Control Instruments Manufacturing
33451
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments. Examples of products made by these establishments are aeronautical instruments, appliance regulators and controls (except switches), laboratory analytical instruments, navigation and guidance systems, and physical properties testing equipment.
334510
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing electromedical and electrotherapeutic apparatus, such as magnetic resonance imaging equipment, medical ultrasound equipment, pacemakers, hearing aids, electrocardiographs, and electromedical endoscopic equipment.
3345101
Electromedical equipment
33451010
Electromedical equipment (diagnostic, therapeutic, patient monitoring, etc.), excluding ionizing radiation equipment and hearing aids
3345101000
Electromedical equipment (diagnostic, therapeutic, patient monitoring, etc.), excluding ionizing radiation equipment and hearing aids
33451011
Medical diagnostic equipment
3345101100
Electromedical equipment, including diagnostic, therapeutic, and patient monitoring equipment (excluding ionizing radiation equipment)
3345101103
Magnetic resonance imaging equipment (MRI)
3345101106
Ultrasound scanning devices
3345101109
Electrocardiograph (EKG)
3345101112
Electroencephalograph (EEG) and electromyograph (EMG)
3345101115
Audiological equipment
3345101118
Endoscopic equipment (bronchoscope, cystoscope, proctosigmoidoscope, colonoscope, etc.)
3345101121
Respiratory analysis equipment
3345101124
All other medical diagnostic equipment
33451012
Medical therapy equipment
3345101227
Medical patient intensive care~coronary care units, including component modules such as temperature, blood pressure, and pulse monitoring equipment
3345101231
Medical prenatal monitoring equipment
3345101234
Medical patient respiratory monitoring equipment
3345101237
All other patient monitoring equipment
3345101241
Medical ultrasound therapy equipment
3345101244
Medical therapy pacemakers
3345101247
Medical therapy defibrillators
3345101251
Medical therapy dialyzers (includes machines and equipment)
3345101254
Medical therapy laser equipment
3345101257
All other medical therapy equipment
33451013
Other electromedical equipment
3345101361
Medical electrosurgical equipment
3345101364
Medical heart~lung machines (excluding iron lungs)
3345101367
Medical blood flow systems
3345101371
All other surgical support systems
3345101374
Other electromedical equipment, except diagnostic and therapeutic
33451014
Parts and accessories for electromedical equipment
3345101477
Electromedical parts and accessories, including diagnostic and therapeutic
3345103
Electronic hearing aids
33451031
Electronic hearing aids, complete units
3345103100
Electronic hearing aids, complete units
334510M
Miscellaneous receipts
334510P
Primary products
334510S
Secondary products
334510SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
334511
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing search, detection, navigation, guidance, aeronautical, and nautical systems and instruments. Examples of products made by these establishments are aircraft instruments (except engine), flight recorders, navigational instruments and systems, radar systems and equipment, and sonar systems and equipment.
3345111
Aeronautical, nautical & navigational instruments, not sending/receiving radio
33451110
Aeronautical, nautical, and navigational instruments, not sending or receiving radio signals
3345111000
Aeronautical, nautical, and navigational instruments, not sending or receiving radio signals, except engine instruments
33451111
Aeronautical, nautical, and navigational instruments, not sending or receiving radio signals (except engine instruments)
3345111100
Aeronautical, nautical, and navigational instruments, not sending or receiving radio signals (except engine instruments)
3345111101
Flight and navigation compasses (all types)
3345111103
Flight and navigation altimeters (except radio and radar altimeters)
3345111105
Flight and navigation airspeed indicators (including machmeters and air data computers)
3345111107
Flight and navigation acceleration indicators and systems components
3345111109
Flight and navigation rate_of_climb indicators
3345111111
Flight and navigation angle_of_attack indicators
3345111113
Flight and navigation artificial horizon flight instruments
3345111115
Other flight and navigation sensors, transmitters, and displays
33451112
Gyroscopes and airframe equipment instruments
3345111217
Vertical gyroscopes (sold separately)
3345111219
Directional gyroscopes (sold separately)
3345111221
Free torqued and untorqued gyroscopes (sold separately)
3345111223
Rate, inertial grade gyroscopes (sold separately)
3345111225
Rate, noninertial grade gyroscopes (sold separately)
3345111227
Airframe equipment instruments, position indicators (mechanical)
3345111229
Airframe equipment instruments, hydraulic systems (electrical and mechanical)
3345111231
Airframe equipment instruments, cabin environmental measuring and control instruments
3345111233
Other aerospace flight instruments, including parts sold separately
33451113
Nautical instruments (all types)
3345111335
Nautical instruments (all types)
33451114
Parts and components for aeronautical, nautical, and navigational instruments, except aircraft engine instruments (sold separately)
3345111437
Parts and components for aeronautical, nautical, and navigational instruments, except aircraft engine instruments (sold separately)
3345113
Search, detection, navigation, and guidance systems and equipment
33451130
Search, detection, navigation, and guidance systems and equipment
3345113000
Search, detection, navigation, and guidance systems and equipment
33451131
Search, detection, navigation, and guidance systems and equipment
3345113100
Search, detection, navigation, and guidance systems and equipment
3345113101
Light reconnaissance and surveillance electronic systems and equipment (infrared, ultraviolet, and visible light) (bomb_defense equipment, fire control equipment (except optical systems), etc.)
3345113103
Electronic checkout, monitoring, evaluation, and other electronic support equipment for light reconnaissance and surveillance electronic systems, IFF equipment
3345113105
Electronic checkout, monitoring, evaluation, and other electronic support equipment for light reconnaissance and surveillance electronic systems, proximity fuses
33451132
Search, detection, and acquisition radar systems and equipment
3345113207
Airborne and missile~space radar search, detection, and acquisition systems and equipment
3345113209
Ship (marine) radar search, detection, and acquisition systems and equipment
3345113211
Ground radar search, detection, and acquisition systems and equipment
33451133
Tracking radar systems and equipment
3345113313
Airborne and missile~space radar tracking systems and equipment
3345113315
Ship (marine) radar tracking systems and equipment
3345113317
Ground radar tracking systems and equipment
3345113319
Instrumentation radar systems and equipment, airborne, missile~space and ship (marine) radar
3345113321
Instrumentation radar systems and equipment, ground radar
3345113323
Tracking radar systems and equipment, electronic checkout, monitoring, evaluation, and other electronic support equipment
33451134
Sonar search, detection, and communication equipment, and electronic warfare systems
3345113425
Sonar search, detection, tracking and communication systems and equipment, including ASW for surface ship applications
3345113427
Sonar search, detection, tracking and communication systems and equipment, including ASW for submarine applications
3345113429
Sonar search, detection, tracking and communication systems and equipment, including ASW for airborne
3345113431
Sonar search, detection, tracking and communication systems and equipment, including ASW for electronic checkout, monitoring, evaluation, and other electronic support equipment (including submerged)
3345113433
Specialized command and control data processing and display equipment (sold separately)
3345113435
Search, detection, identification, and tracking systems and equipment, nec
3345113437
Electronic warfare and countermeasures systems and equipment, communications and radar jamming equipment
3345113439
Electronic warfare and countermeasures systems and equipment, underwater countermeasures equipment
3345113441
Electronic warfare and countermeasures systems and equipment, other active countermeasure equipment (excluding passive materials)
3345113443
Specialized electronic and communication intelligence equipment
33451135
Missile and space vehicle systems equipment
3345113545
Missile and space vehicle systems equipment, missile~borne and space~ vehicle~borne equipment
3345113547
Missile and space vehicle systems equipment, nonmissile and space vehicle guidance equipment
3345113549
Missile and space vehicle systems equipment, electronic checkout, launching, and other missile and space vehicle support systems
33451136
Navigation systems and equipment
3345113651
Navigation systems and equipment for aircraft, ship and ground navigation; airborne navigational systems; radio receivers and displays
3345113653
Navigation systems and equipment for aircraft, ship and ground navigation; airborne navigational systems; integrated data systems~flight recorders
3345113655
Navigation systems and equipment for aircraft, ship and ground navigation; airborne navigational systems; distance measuring
3345113657
Navigation systems and equipment for aircraft, ship and ground navigation; airborne navigational systems; flight directors~situation display
3345113659
Navigation systems and equipment for aircraft, ship and ground navigation; airborne navigational systems; heads~up display (HUD)
3345113661
Navigation systems and equipment for aircraft, ship and ground navigation; airborne navigational systems; inertial navigation
3345113663
Navigation systems and equipment for aircraft, ship and ground navigation; airborne navigational systems; proximity warning~collision avoidance
3345113665
Navigation systems and equipment for aircraft, ship and ground navigation; airborne navigational systems; complete automatic pilots (both gyroscopic and nongyroscopic)
3345113667
All other navigation systems and equipment for aircraft, ship and ground navigation; airborne navigational systems
3345113669
Navigation systems and equipment for aircraft, ship and ground navigation; surface (ship and ground) navigational systems
3345113671
Navigation systems and equipment for aircraft, ship and ground navigation; underwater navigational systems
3345113673
Navigation systems and equipment for aircraft, ship and ground navigation; electronic checkout, monitoring, evaluation, and other electronic support equipment
334511M
Miscellaneous receipts
334511P
Primary products
334511S
Secondary products
334511SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
334512
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing automatic controls and regulators for applications, such as heating, air-conditioning, refrigeration and appliances.
3345120
AUTOMATIC ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROLS FOR MONITORING RESIDENTIAL, COMMERCIAL, AND APPLIANCE USE
33451200
Automatic environmental controls for monitoring residential, commercial, and appliance use
3345120000
Automatic environmental controls for monitoring and regulating residential and commercial environments and appliances
33451201
Automatic environmental controls for monitoring residential, commercial, and appliance use
3345120100
Automatic environmental controls for monitoring residential, commercial, and appliance use
3345120101
Automatic controls of the type principally used as components of air~ conditioning, refrigeration, and comfort heating (including pneumatic controls); electric temperature responsive (thermostats)
3345120102
Automatic controls for air_conditioning, refrigeration, and comfort heating (including pneumatic controls), temperature responsive (thermostats)
3345120103
Automatic controls of the type principally used as components of air~ conditioning, refrigeration, and comfort heating (including pneumatic controls); pneumatic temperature responsive (thermostats)
3345120105
Automatic controls for air_conditioning, refrigeration, and comfort heating (including pneumatic controls), pressure responsive (pressurestats)
3345120107
Automatic controls for air_conditioning, refrigeration, and comfort heating (including pneumatic controls), hydronic responsive
3345120109
Automatic controls for air_conditioning, refrigeration, and comfort heating (including pneumatic controls), humidity responsive (humidistats)
3345120111
Automatic controls for air_conditioning, refrigeration, and comfort heating (including pneumatic controls), light responsive
3345120113
Automatic controls for air_conditioning, refrigeration, and comfort heating (including pneumatic controls), liquid level
3345120115
Automatic controls for air_conditioning, refrigeration, and comfort heating (including pneumatic controls), igniters
3345120117
Automatic controls for air_conditioning, refrigeration, and comfort heating (including pneumatic controls), inherent motor protectors
33451202
Controls for energy control systems for buildings
3345120219
Automatic controls of the type principally used as components of ac, refrigeration, and comfort heating (incl pneumatic controls); microprocessor~ based load programmers for buildings energy control
3345120221
Automatic controls of the type principally used as components of air~ conditioning, refrigeration, and comfort heating (including pneumatic controls); computerized energy control systems for buildings
3345120223
Other automatic controls of the type principally used as components of air~ conditioning, refrigeration, and comfort heating (including pneumatic controls)
3345120225
Controls for major appliances; temperature responsive
3345120227
All other controls for major appliances
3345120229
Parts and components for controls for monitoring residential and commercial environments and appliance regulating controls (sold separately)
3345123
Automatic building, refrigeration and appliance controls
334512M
Miscellaneous receipts
334512P
Primary products
334512S
Secondary products
334512SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
334513
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing instruments and related devices for measuring, displaying, indicating, recording, transmitting, and controlling industrial process variables. These instruments measure, display or control (monitor, analyze, and so forth) industrial process variables, such as temperature, humidity, pressure, vacuum, combustion, flow, level, viscosity, density, acidity, concentration, and rotation.
3345130
PROCESS CONTROL INSTRUMENTS
33451300
Process control instruments
3345130000
Process control instruments
33451301
Process control instruments
3345130100
Process control instruments
3345130101
General purpose control system instruments and related equipment, electronic systems, unified architecture, controllers (recording, indicating, or blind)
3345130103
General purpose control system instruments and related equipment, electronic systems, unified architecture, recorders, with or without sefl_ contained set_point stations
3345130105
General purpose control system instruments and related equipment, electronic systems, unified architecture, indicators, with or without sefl_ contained set_point stations
3345130107
General purpose control system instruments and related equipment, electronic systems, unified architecture, auxiliary stations and analog computing devices (manual loaders, ratio stations, etc.)
3345130109
General purpose control system instruments and related equipment, electronic systems, non_unified architecture, all types (except multi_ function process computers)
3345130111
General purpose control system instruments and related equipment, industrial multi_function process computers
3345130113
General purpose control system instruments and related equipment, industrial pneumatic systems, controllers (recording, indicating, or blind)
3345130115
General~purpose pneumatic recorders, with or without self~contained set~ point stations
3345130116
General purpose control system instruments and related equipment, industrial pneumatic systems, recorders and indicators, with or without self_contained set_point stations
3345130117
General~purpose pneumatic indicators, with or without self~contained set~ point stations
3345130119
General purpose control system instruments and related equipment, industrial pneumatic systems, auxiliary stations and analog computing devices (manual loaders, ratio stations, adders, etc.)
334513011G
General purpose control system instruments and related equipment, electrical and electronic measuring types, direct_deflecting type controllers, indicators, and recorders
334513011J
Electromechanical self~balancing electric or pneumatic controllers, indicators, recorders, and integrators for all other process variables
3345130121
General purpose control system instrument
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