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U.S. Solar Energy Demand Dynamics
Pike Research, July 2009, Pages: 76
The United States has become one of the more aggressive nations in promoting alternative energy technologies, but at the federal level tax credits and depreciation incentives are not currently enough to encourage sustainable demand growth. Instead, some states and municipalities have taken the lead in providing incentives through a variety of mechanisms ranging from upfront rebates and property tax credits to renewable energy credits and even European-style feed-in tariffs. Extensive interviews with both end-users and manufacturers conclude that for sustained growth in the U.S., incentives must be increased at the federal level. Due largely to the credit crisis, funding for solar projects has been tight. In the U.S., this has particularly been the case, because banks are unwilling to lend to projects that have undetermined cash flows.
Our five-year outlook is that the combination of federal and state incentives and falling module prices will work together to dramatically increase demand in the U.S. As more banks become comfortable with funding these projects, and find ways to securitize the cash flows, we believe it will become an attractive revenue stream for solar lending divisions. Utilities, which are just now getting serious about meeting RPS goals, will likely take the lead in developing new solar projects. Until now, they have been unsuccessful in getting support from their ratepayers who would see up to a 10% increase in their utility bills. However, we believe that the emphasis that the Obama administration is placing on climate change will eventually filter into the fabric of American society, propelling the U.S. into a global leadership position in solar PV market share by 2014, according to our most recent forecast.
This report examines demand-side dynamics for solar PV projects in depth, analyzing government incentives, financing structures, and internal rates of return on a state-by-state level. Cost components for solar project development are quantified in detail, and the report also includes forecasts for leading solar PV markets around the world in addition to the U.S., providing a clear and actionable view of the size and timing of market opportunities.
Key questions addressed:
- Which states provide the best subsidies to supplement federal tax credits?
- How has the global credit crisis impacted solar demand, and what is the current financing environment?
- What are recent trends in pricing for fully installed solar PV systems?
- Why do lower installed costs have little impact without easing of credit?
- What are the key government subsidy mechanisms for encouraging solar demand?
- How will profitability be distributed within the solar value chain?
Who needs this report?
- Utilities
- Solar Project Developers
- Solar Installers/Integrators
- Solar Cell and Module Manufacturers
- Solar Equipment Vendors
- Government Energy and Environmental Agencies
- Investment Professionals
- Solar Industry Associations
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