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Obesity - The $11 billion market that never was
Datamonitor, July 2009, Pages: 245
The obesity market is easily characterized as attractive, featuring a booming patient potential needing long term therapy, but repeated product withdrawals and failed pipeline candidates highlight the reality of increasingly cautious regulatory bodies, reluctant payers, and a clinical community that puts more stock in diet and exercise: $513.7m sales in 2008 fall far short of analyst predictions.
Scope of the report:
- Defining the key clinical characteristics of the obesity sector that present a unique commercial challenge
- Translation of critical clinical and regulatory issues into pertinent practical considerations for both incumbent players and new market entrants
- Clinical and commercial analysis of existing and late stage products targeting the sector, qualified by key opinion leader interviews
- Seven major market forecasts for key products to 2018
Highlights of this title:
The 125 million obese adults in 2008 across the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK will grow to at least 143 million by 2018. If just 25% of these adults were treated for one year with a dollar per day product, achieving 80% compliance rates, market potential would rise from $8.6 billion in 2008 to $10.5 billion in 2018
There may be some advantages to exploring head-to-head trials of existing therapies, the combination use of drugs or demonstrating longer term improvements to cardiovascular risks, but in the current environment this is unlikely to expand the proportion of the obese population in which existing and late stage pipeline products will be used.
GSKs Alli failed to sustain US launch sales, Sanofi-Aventis Acomplia has been withdrawn. 27 clinical pipeline products discontinued between publication of this report and its predecessor (2006) have cost at least $1.1 billion in trial costs alone. Some developers will be facing administration or liquidation rather than arranging partnering deals.
Key reasons to purchase this title:
- Understand why predictions for this market have been repeatedly over-stated
- Qualify market expectations against the practicalities of targeting this unyielding market
- Assess the qualities of marketed and pipeline products and their commercial handling to determine their realistic prospects
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