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Turkey Agribusiness Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, Aug 2009, Pages: 44
Business Monitor International's Turkey Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Turkey's agribusiness service.
BMI 's Turkey Agribusiness Report Q409 continues on the themes touched upon in previous reports. Turkey is one of the world's top agricultural producers and the industry is extremely vital to political, as well as social and economic, wellbeing. This report looks at the fundamentals and dynamics across the main farmed goods in Turkey, while the Business Environment Overview section casts a broad gaze over the entire industry.
Since 2007, the country has been ravaged by one of the worst droughts in its history, which has piled considerable pressure on domestic water resources, even more so considering the high percentage of agricultural output reliant on irrigated farming. Furthermore, neighbouring countries similarly affected - mainly Iraq and Syria - are putting pressure on Turkey to increase water flows from the Euphrates river, one of the main water sources in the region. The drought risk remains throughout the outlook period, threatening to undermine efforts to increase productivity across the sector.
In addition to the drought, the global recession has taken a particularly hard toll on exports. The Turkish Exporters' Assembly (TIM) reported how year-on-year shipments in June 2009 fell by nearly 33%, with agricultural exports contracting by 6.55% for the same period, although on a month-on-month basis there has been a slight uptick in export growth. This is not to detract, however, from the poor macroeconomic outlook for the country for the remainder of 2009, although BMI is very positive regarding the macroeconomic fundamentals once the recessionary dynamics fade.
Some success has been achieved on the foreign direct investment front. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has agreed to provide finance to the tune of US$193mn for agribusiness and small business development. The figure is reported to rise to US$300mn in 2010 and could be used to marked effect in developing infrastructure. More recently, a group consisting of various Arab investment houses signalled its intention to facilitate substantial capital flows into Turkey; a development which the government has used as a public relations tool to highlight investor optimism in local farming.
According to Agricultural Minister Mehmet Mehdi Eker Turkey's food sales earn the country around US$57bn per year, while overall agricultural production is estimated at US$57bn, highlighting the importance of the sector, not just for domestic socio-economic wellbeing, but for the numerous international markets served by Turkish exports. EU accession draws ever closer, and as it does, BMI expects to see a continued commitment to the agricultural reforms that have been so earnestly pursued by the government.
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