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Philippines Agribusiness Report Q1 2009
Business Monitor International, Jan 2009, Pages: 50
Philippines Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Philippines' agribusiness service.
After a turbulent year of soaring prices and fears of shortages, things seem to be returning to business as usual in Philippine agriculture. In the new Philippines Agribusiness Report for Q1 2009 we examine what plans are in place to avoid a repeat of the crisis and move the country towards self-sufficiency in key food products.
Contributing 18% of GDP and employing 35% of the labour force in 2007, the agricultural sector is of great importance to the economy. From January to September 2008, the gross value of agricultural production in the Philippines grew by 4.2% year-on-year (y-o-y), according to the Philippines Bureau of Agricultural Statistics. This is a slight slowdown from the 2007 full-year figure of 4.7% (y-o-y). In 2007, the growth of the agricultural sector trailed the economy as a whole, which grew by 7.2% y-o-y. In 2008, we forecast GDP growth to come in at a more subdued 4.4% y-o-y.
In 2007, the gross value of agricultural production, including fisheries, was put as PHP971.8bn (US$19.6bn). Of this, 48% came from the crops subsector, 27% from livestock, and 25% from fisheries. Despite the continued growth of the sector, 2008 was a tough year for agriculture in the Philippines in many ways. While high prices were a boon for many farmers, much of the extra revenue was cancelled out by rising input costs as the price of fuel and fertilizer soared. Also, the high retail price of food did not always lead to similar rises in farm gate prices. The livestock sector was particularly hard hit with the price of feed up significantly on 2007 levels.
Prices were not the only problem for Filipino farmers however, weather also caused significant production losses with 10 typhoons smashing into the Philippines over 2008. Typhoon Frank, which struck in June, alone was reported to have caused PHP555mn (US$11.2mn) in crop damage.
The dominant story of the year, however, was the rising price of rice - with the price on the world market rising by around 100% from November 2007 to May 2008. With rice a staple food for Filipinos and domestic production insufficient to meet demand, the Philippines is a major net importer of rice. With the rising prices and export restrictions imposed by major rice exporting nations such as Vietnam and India, in the first quarter of 2008, concerns began to be raised about the ability of the Philippines to secure enough rice for its population. After some intense activity on the external markets, by April imports of 1.3mn tonnes of rice had already been secured, more than the full-year import target of 1.2mn tonnes. In the end, the Philippines imported 2.3mn tonnes of rice in 2008, making it the world's biggest rice importer.
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