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Russia Agribusiness Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, Sep 2009, Pages: 63
The Russia Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Russia's agribusiness service.
Despite having 10% of the world's arable land while accounting for only just over 2% of the world's population, Russia is a net food importer. In BMI 's new Russia Agribusiness Report for Q409, we examine why this is the case and what challenges Russian agriculture will face as the country attempts to reassert itself as an agricultural power. The global recession is creating particular problems and the report examines the government's role in trying to bolster and protect domestic agricultural production at this difficult time. However, we also consider the successes. Grain production has been making great strides.
While production of wheat, barley and corn is likely to drop in 2009/10 due to lower yields and some Spring crop drought damage (following a bumper harvest last year) we forecast that by 2013 Russia will be one of the world's top wheat exporters. In June 2009 Reuters reported President Dmitry Medvedev as saying that Russia plans to raise its grain output by about 25% to 133-136mn tonnes in the years ahead and contribute to global food security.
Though the Soviet Union was self-sufficient in food production until well into the 1980s, the danger signs of the coming collapse were clear to see. Yields were a fraction of those in the US as the majority of farming was done on woefully inefficient state and collective farms. A small amount of private household farms were permitted and, in the 1980s, despite accounting for only 3% of agricultural land, they produced around 25% of the total agricultural output.
With the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the system of subsidies for farmers and guaranteed prices and markets for their produce began to collapse. Thrust into vagaries of the market system, many farmers were unable to stay afloat and output dropped precipitously, turning Russia into a large net food importer. Since the end of the 1990s, however, things have begun to turn around. As unprofitable operators have been forced out of business, those that have survived have become more efficient and large corporate farms have emerged. Russia's Federal State Statistics Service show that the percentage of agricultural output in value terms produced by larger concerns (agricultural organisations) rose from 41.2% in 2005 to 43.4% in 2007 and the percentage for household farms fell from 53.2% in 2005 to 49.6% in 2007.
We expect grain production to expand rapidly thanks largely to support by the government which has been implementing plans to increase the use of higher yielding seeds, allow the greater use of fertiliser and encourage investment in machinery. An estimated RUB12bn (US$468mn) was poured into the industry between 2005 and 2007 improving crop yields and attracting the attention of foreign investment.
The Moscow Times, quoting Reuters, reported in March 2009 that Russian grain processor Pava is looking for potential foreign investors to help triple the amount of farmland under its control. A company director was quoted as saying that the firm hopes for a tenfold increase in grain production by restoring fallow land in Siberia. US agribusiness giant Cargill's new feed mill, reportedly capable of turning out 250,000 tonnes of feed a year, will complement Russia's quest to become self-sufficient in livestock production. According to the company, the mill will produce nutritional feed and value-added ingredients, lowering costs for producers having to import such inputs. Cargill has a growing number of feed plants in this part of the world.
Agricultural expansion could substantially benefit from Putin's latest land reform legislation which means that for the first time since 1917 Russia will permit the trading of national farmlands. This could go a long way towards attracting the types of investment that can help Russia fulfil its vision of being a major global agricultural player. The land reform could lead to over 400mn hectares of crop acreage being sold.
The government is hoping that the establishment of the United Grain Company will help boost grain production and exports further. According to a United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report, in March 2009 President Medvedev signed a decree establishing the company, the main priorities of which will be to increase the purchasing and selling of grain on the domestic market, increase grain exports and modernise and construct new elevators and port terminals. The report states that the government has nine months in which to develop the company's trading strategy for 2009-2012 and 2013-2015 and find some private funding. The division between state and private ownership, as well as details on strategy and the company's role in the grain market are not yet clear. There are of course fears that greater government involvement could politicise grain exports, as has happened with energy in recent years.
Russia has also been promoting an initiative to create a Black Sea trade bloc, a grain alliance, comprising Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Together, the 'cartel' is seeking to manage grain reserves while developing rail and port capacity between the countries. The US has protested that such a scheme would contravene WTO principals and affect Russia's application to join. The EU Commissioner for Agriculture and Rural Development has voiced disapproval about WTO member and potential EU incumbent Ukraine joining the group. As such, BMI believes it unlikely that the scheme will go ahead. Various attempts by the government to ban or limit meat imports have been construed by some suppliers as protectionism. Regarding bans related to the outbreak of swine flu Russia has said they were based onhealth grounds. Other bans, such as that of Belarussian dairy products, have been partly put down by a number of commentators to political reasons.
Oats, rye, sunflower seeds and potatoes are not covered in depth by this report but Russia is a major world producer of all four. A range of fruit is also commercially grown including apples, pears and peaches. Another success story is the poultry industry. USDA notes that the poultry sector is the only one that has managed to triple production in the last decade due to the introduction of new breeds, improved feed technology and better management, largely possible through greater industry consolidation. USDA adds that recent increases are also down to investment credit subsidies and the imposition of import restricting policies. Cheaper feed is also helping.
The government is keen to develop the struggling livestock and dairy sectors and has introduced a number of measures. According to the USDA, the 'State Program for Development of Agriculture and Regulation of Food and Agricultural Markets 2008-2012' is aiming to turn around falling cattle numbers, including measures to stimulate domestic production and protect local producers. Also The Moscow Times reported in March 2009 that the government may allocate RUB72bn (US$2.1bn) to enable the construction of new, and the restoration of older, dairies and meat processing plants. First Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov is quoted as saying: 'We must come out of this year with a greater volume of domestically produced milk and meat'.
There is now considerable interest in Russia's livestock and dairy sector. In February 2008, Wimm-Bill- Dann invested more than US$12mn in the opening of a large-scale dairy farm outside of St. Petersburg, which it claims will have yields on a par with those seen in US dairy farms. In May 2009 Charoen Pokphand (CPF), Thailand's largest agribusiness concern, launched an integrated feed mill and pig production unit in Moscow. The mill has the capacity to produce almost 0.25mn tonnes of feed annually and Russia is seen as the focal point for the firms' expansion plans. Within five years CPF hopes to produce 1mn pigs a year. Despite Russians being typically wary of foreign companies, consumers are open to high quality, branded goods (and loyal once won over) and the growth of the pork market can be catered for by CPF - helping to foster a mutually beneficial relationship.
However, despite advances, investment and government schemes there are a number of challenges that must be met if Russia is to reach its potential to be one of the world's leading food producers. The legacies of complex land ownership rights from decades of collective farming remain. Though these have been cleared up considerably in recent years, establishing large corporate farms is no easy matter. Infrastructure in many parts of Russia is already creaking, with little investment since Soviet times. In 2008 there were insufficient grain storage facilities and transporting the grain harvest was severely delayed due to a lack of functioning railway cars.
Another daunting challenge for the Russian authorities is population demographics. As Russia's population has been falling, rural areas have been hit particularly hard. Unless the government can stem the flow of young people leaving the land for the cities, it is hard to see how their agricultural dreams can be realised.
Importantly, the global recession is taking its toll. Russia is in the midst of a deep macroeconomic crisis and we now expect the economy in 2009 to contract by 7.1% in real terms, with risks weighted to the downside. The outlook for household consumption is weak as the private sector slashes output and retail credit is constricted. Unemployment spiralled to an eight-year high of 9.5% in March 2009 and we forecast this to rise to 14% by the end of the year. At the same time real wages have begun to contract for the first time since 2000, falling by 5.7% year-on-year in March. Real GDP growth is expected to improve by 1.0% in 2010 and then by 3.5% a year later, but purchasing habits will be affected in the short term.
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