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Peru Retail Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, Sep 2009, Pages: 50
The Peru Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Peru's retail industry.
The Q409 Peru Retail report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from about US$81bn in 2008 to almost US$138bn by 2013. Generally positive trends in underlying economic growth, an expanding population and a steady increase in real wages are key factors behind the forecast growth in Peru’s retail sales.
Peru’s nominal GDP was US$127.63bn in 2008, with growth expected to slow to 3.2% in 2009 as the economic downturn takes hold. Average annual GDP growth of 4.8% is now predicted between 2008 and 2013. With the population increasing from 29.2mn in 2008 to an estimated 31.6mn by 2013, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 43% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$6,245. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$2,951 in 2008 to US$4,221 by 2013.
In 2005, 64.0% of the Peruvian population was described by the UN as ‘active’, with 39.3% in the crucial 20-44 age range. Nearly three-quarters (74.6%) of the population was classified by the UN as urban. By 2010, the urban population is forecast to have reached 76.4%, with 39.9% in the 20-44 age band and 66.2% of the population expected to be active.
Easier access to consumer credit has boosted retail sales in Peru. The number of credit cards in circulation in the country rose from 210,000 in 1996 to 3mn in 2006. In the capital city, Lima, 15.5% of the population had a credit card in 2006.
The author has calculated that organised retail accounted for an estimated US$2.04bn of overall sales in 2008, rising to a forecast US$4.96bn by 2013. This is an annual average growth rate of 21.7%, compared with the predicted 13.2% (in US dollar terms) annual growth rate for overall retail sales. Retail sub-sectors that are expected to show strong growth over the forecast period include food and drink, with sales expected to rise from US$13.0bn in 2008 to US$24.71bn, an increase of 90.1%. Overthe- counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals sales are predicted to grow from US$0.19bn in 2008 to US$0.3bn by 2013 (+68.9%). Consumer electronics sales are forecast to increase by 57.9%, from US$1.52bn in 2008 to US$2.41bn by 2013.
Retail sales for our universe of Latin American countries in 2008 amounted to an estimated US$1,654bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on the macroeconomic database amounts to US$3,011bn. Argentina, Brazil and Mexico together accounted for an estimated 76.8% of regional retail sales in 2008, with their combined share expected to slip to 76.6% by 2013. For Peru, the estimated 2008 market share of 4.9% is expected to rise to 6.0% by 2013.
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