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Construction of the Sino-Kazakistan Oil Pipeline and Petroleum Market of Western China
Beijing Inforce Consulting Ltd, Jan 2004, Pages: 60
Since 1993 when China became a net importer of petroleum, the explosive growth of the Chinese economy has resulted in radical increases in import of petroleum. The amount of importation hit new highs of 36 million tons in 1997 and 70 million tons in 2000 in comparison with 10 million tons in 1993. Now China has surpassed Japan as the second largest consumer of petroleum in the world. The volume of imported crude oil in 2003 is predicted to set a record of 80 million tons.
In recent years, China’s annual production of petroleum has been stably around 160 million tons, but its total oil consumption has been growing steadily. Currently, over 30% of China’s oil consumption depends on import, and the percentage is still increasing fast. A research report issued by the State Commission of Development and Reform shows that, it is forecast even based on a slower consumption growth rate that the shortage of oil supply in China will still be 126 million tons in 2010 and 205 million tons in 2020 respectively.
At that time, China’s rate of dependence on foreign oil will respectively reach 42% and 54%. During the period of 2010-2015, the foreign oil companies will replace the local ones, to be the major oil supplier. and the dependence on foreign oil resources on a large quantity will be unavoidable. Yet, the statistics of the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that by 2030, imported oil will have been increasing to hold 80% and more of China’s total demand from 34% in 2002. Then, China’s daily crude oil import will be around 10 million barrels, roughly equal to the volume of daily import of the United States in 2000. Experts generally predict, China’s economy will continue to grow fast in the coming 20 years, yet the situation of China’s oil security can in no way provide optimistic support, which has forced China to make many efforts to adopt a diversity strategy in energy import.
A fairly large portion of China’s current imported crude oil is from such a politically sensitive region as the Middle East. In 2001, import from the Middle East made up as much as 56% of the country’s total volume of imported crude oil. In 2002’s list of top ten countries from which China imported crude oil, there are four from the Middle East, namely Saudi Arabia, Iran, Oman and Yemen, which are major sources of China’s crude oil import. The total volume of crude oil imported from Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar amounted to over 3 million tons. Now the United States has established its control over the petroleum of the Middle East, this kind of structure seems to be far from secure during particular periods of time, and oil supply can break off at any time.
Because of these occurrences, China has repositioned its future center of foreign oil supply in the Central Asian members of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Why that region has become the center of China’s outside oil supply instead of the Middle East? Some economists attribute this to the in-depth strategic intent behind. As part of the sphere of influence of the United States, the Middle East, where there are tense conflicts, can hardly be a stable outside oil source to China. Unlike are the CIS’ Central Asian states, and in recent years China has had frequent meetings with leaders of Russia, Hazakistan, Kirghizstan, Tadzhikistan and reached consensus with these countries on many matters. This kind of cooperation leads China to position its outside supply center of oil resources in Kazakistan, Russia and other countries, which will obviously bring about mutually complementary benefits to both sides.
This report is in English
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