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Oil Sands - Alberta 2005: Projects, Participants & Market Opportunities
Utilis Energy, LLC, Nov 2004
Preface 10
Summary & overview 11
Introduction 11
Report structure 13
Understanding oil sands 15
Introduction 15
Definition 17
Historic developments 19
Development catalysts and challenges 19
Extraction of oil sands 21
Shipping oil sands/bitumen 26
Crude oil pipelines 27
Diluted bitumen pipelines 29
Pipeline developments 31
Pipeline jurisdiction 35
Estimated value of investment 36
Conclusions 38
Introduction 39
Economic viability 40
Cost structure 42
Mining process 45
In-situ bitumen production 46
Upgrading 48
The role of natural gas 51
Taxes and royalties 52
Legal and regulatory issues 54
Environmental impact 56
Conclusions 56
Oil sands projects 58
Introduction 58
The Athabasca Oil Sands Project 59
BlackRock Ventures Inc. 61
Canadian Natural Resources 63
Canadian Oil Sands Trust 68
ConocoPhilips 70
Devon Energy Corporation 72
Husky Energy 76
Imperial Oil 78
JACOS 81
Opti Canada/Nexen 82
Petro-Canada 85
Shell Canada 86
Suncor Energy 89
Syncrude Canada Ltd. 93
Deer Creek Energy 98
ExxonMobil 100
Synenco Energy 102
TOTAL 103
Connacher Oil and Gas Limited 105
Petrobank Energy and Resources/Whitesands In-Situ Ltd. 108
Value Creation Group/BA Energy Inc. 109
TrueNorth Energy 112
Small scale 'primary' bitumen producers 113
Recommendations & conclusions 116
Introduction 116
Develop projects with sufficient scale 116
Integrate upgrader operations 117
Use risk management tools to lessen price risk 117
Enter into term sales and marketing contracts 118
Develop further markets for synthetic crude 118
Conclusions 118
Appendix 1 – Bitumen production breakdown 119
Appendix 2 - Sources 122
CONTENTS TABLES
Table 1: Bitumen chemical specifications 18
Table 2: Forward NYMEX crude prices, 2004-2010 (Dec) US$/bbl 20
Table 3: Oil sands reserves (in development) by type, 1996-2003 23
Table 4: Oil sands production by type, 1996-2004 24
Table 5: Oil sands production cost comparison, 1985-2004 ($ per barrel) 43
Table 6: Upgrader expansion by company 2003-2010 50
Table 7: Oil Sands project status 2004 55
Table 8: Deer Creek bitumen production timeline 99
Table 9: Bitumen production by company and project (a) 119
Table 10: Sources and contributors 122
FIGURES
Figure 1: Oil sands industry revenues, 1997-2004 13
Figure 2: Oil sands production by region, 2004 15
Figure 3: Comparative oil reserves, 2004 16
Figure 4: Composition of oil sands 17
Figure 5: Oil sands reserves (in development) by type, 1996-2003 23
Figure 6: Oil sands production by type, 1996-2004 24
Figure 7: Oil sands production forecast by type, 2005-2015 25
Figure 8: Major Canadian oil pipelines 27
Figure 9: Existing and pipelines under development 29
Figure 10: Potential Gateway Pipeline route to the West Coast 33
Figure 11: Planned route Waupiscoo pipeline corridor 34
Figure 12: Oil sands capital spending, 1998-2004 36
Figure 13: Oil sands capital spending forecast, 2005-2012 37
Figure 14: Oil sands impact on Canadian GDP ($bn) 39
Figure 15: Quantities of oil sands required to create a barrel of synthetic crude oil 40
Figure 16: Production cost comparison, 1985-2004 ($ per barrel) 43
Figure 17: Bitumen production costs - oil sands mining operations ($ per barrel) 44
Figure 18: Bitumen production costs In-situ operations ($ per barrel) 45
Figure 19: 'Huff and Puff' cyclic steam bitumen recovery 47
Figure 20: SAGD in-situ bitumen production 47
Figure 21: Upgrader capacity, 1996-2004 49
Figure 22: Upgrader capacity 2003-2010 50
Figure 23: Oil sands natural gas demand (cubic feet/barrel) 51
Figure 24: Oil sands royalty payments, 1996-2004 ($bn) 53
Figure 25: Alberta Government oil sands revenues, 1998-2025 53
Figure 26: Locations of Alberta oil sands projects 58
Figure 27: Horizon project site map 65
Figure 28: Production forecast Wolflake, Primrose, Horizon, 2004-2016 67
Figure 29: Suncor oil sands production, 1998-2004 91
Figure 30: Suncor oil sand production forecast, 2005-2012 92
Figure 31: Syncrude oil sands partners 94
Figure 32: Deer Creek Energy Joslyn Project 98
Figure 33: Location of Great Divide asset 106
Figure 34: Connacher Great Divide oil sand leases 107
Figure 35: Heartland Upgrader pipeline interconnections 111
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