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IPTV Business Case and Global Forecast 2004-2007
Multimedia Research Group, Dec 2003
1 Executive Summary
2 The Opportunity for IPTV
2.1 The Competitive Video Market
2.2 Fiber and High Definition will Drive New IPTV Technologies
2.3 IPTV Mass Deployments Have Started
2.3.1 Asia Is Taking the Lead
2.3.2 Europe Is Active
2.3.3 The Small Telcos Are Leading the Way in North America
2.3.4 Limited Activity in the Rest of the World
2.4 Sophisticated New IPTV Service Strategies
2.4.1 Implementing Full Service Strategies
2.4.2 Innovative Pricing and Promotion Strategies
2.5 The IPTV Opportunity Is Real
3 New Developments in IPTV Technology
3.1 Access Technologies
3.1.1 ADSL2+ Will Enhance ADSL IPTV Services
3.1.2 VDSL Technology Still Addressing Standardization Issues
3.1.3 Fiber to the MDUs Is Important In Many Markets
3.1.4 BPON FTTP Technology Being Adopted in the U.S.
3.1.5 Gigabit PON Will be Significant in Asia
3.1.6 DSL Will Continue to Dominate IPTV
3.2 Advances in Video Compression Enabling IPTV
3.2.1 MPEG-2 Is Now a Mature Technology
3.2.2 MPEG-4 Is Needed for High Definition
3.2.3 Microsoft Is Making a Major Push with Windows Media 9
3.2.4 Future Direction of Codec Technology Is Toward Low Bit Rate Encoding
3.3 Key Technology Trends and Opportunities
4 The Strong Business Case for IPTV
4.1 The Business Case of IPTV over DSL Has Improved
4.2 IPTV Over Fiber Has an Attractive Business Case
4.3 The Actual Results from IPTV Deployments are Positive
4.3.1 IPTV Has Accelerated Profitability at FastWeb
4.4 PCCW Expects that IPTV Will Bring Strong Positive Results
5 Global Outlook for IPTV
5.1 Asia is Leading the IPTV Market
5.1.1 Dramatic IPTV Introduction in Hong Kong
5.1.2 Continuing Progress in Japan
5.1.3 IPTV in South Korea Has Been Limited by Regulation
5.1.4 IPTV Delayed in Taiwan
5.1.5 Activities in Other Asian Countries
5.2 Robust IPTV Activities in Europe
5.2.1 FastWeb is Showing the Way in Italy
5.2.2 France Telecom Aggressive IPTV Rollout
5.2.3 IPTV Paused in Spain
5.2.4 Germany and the UK Taking It Slow
5.2.5 Other Western European Countries Active
5.2.6 IPTV Activities Starting in Eastern Europe
5.3 Canada and the Small Independents Leading in North America
5.3.1 Canadian Telephone Companies Adopting IPTV
5.3.2 Small U.S. Independent Telcos Leading the Way
5.3.3 Large U.S. Incumbents Will Not Adopt IPTV
5.4 IPTV Emerging in the Rest of the World
6 Global IPTV Market Forecast Holding Steady
6.1 Global Forecast Shows Strong Growth
6.1.1 Global DSL Forecast Is Much Improved
6.1.2 IPTV Subscriber Forecast Remains Strong
6.1.3 Global System Revenue Forecast
6.1.4 Access System Revenue Forecast
6.1.5 Global Set-top Box Revenue Forecast
6.1.6 Global IPTV Headend Revenue Forecast
6.1.7 Global IP VOD Servers Revenue Forecast
6.1.8 Global IPTV Middleware Revenue Forecast
6.2 IPTV Market Forecast for Asia
6.2.1 DSL Subscriber Forecast for Asia
6.2.2 IPTV Subscriber Forecast for Asia
6.2.3 IPTV System Revenue for Asia
6.3 IPTV Market Forecast for Europe
6.3.1 DSL Subscriber Forecast for Europe
6.3.2 IPTV Subscriber Forecast for Europe
6.3.3 IPTV System Revenue in Europe
6.4 IPTV Market Forecast for North America
6.4.1 DSL Subscriber Forecast for North America
6.4.2 IPTV Subscriber Forecast for North America
6.4.3 IPTV System Revenue for North America
6.5 IPTV Market Forecast for the Rest of the World
6.5.1 DSL Subscriber Forecast for the Rest of the World
6.5.2 IPTV Subscriber Forecast for the Rest of the World
6.5.3 IPTV System Revenue for the Rest of the World
7 Future Trends and Drivers
7.1 Technology Trends and Drivers
7.2 IPTV Market Trends and Drivers
8 Opportunities, Risks and Recommendation
8.1 Opportunities
8.2 Risks
8.3 Recommendations
8.3.1 Recommendations for Service Providers
8.3.2 Access System Manufacturers
8.3.3 IPTV Systems Manufacturers and Software Providers
8.3.4 Investors
9 Appendices
9.1 Appendix I: Service Provider Profiles
9.1.1 All West Communications, Inc.
9.1.2 BellSouth Corporation
9.1.3 Chibardun Telephone Cooperative, Inc.
9.1.4 Cyprus Telecommunications Authority
9.1.5 FastWeb/e.Biscom
9.1.6 France Telecom
9.1.7 Iowa Network Services, Inc.
9.1.8 KDDI Corporation
9.1.9 Kingston Communications plc
9.1.10 MTS Communications, Inc.
9.1.11 Paul Bunyan Telephone Cooperative
9.1.12 PCCW
9.1.13 Qwest
9.1.14 Saskatchewan Telecommunications (Sasktel)
9.1.15 SBC Communications
9.1.16 Softbank Corporation
9.1.17 SureWest Communications
9.1.18 Verizon Communications
9.1.19 Vernon Telephone Cooperative
9.2 Appendix II: IPTV Access System Manufacturer Profiles
9.2.1 Advanced Fibre Communications, Inc.
9.2.2 Alcatel
9.2.3 Allied Telesyn
9.2.4 Calix
9.2.5 ECI Telecom Ltd.
9.2.6 Marconi Corporation
9.2.7 Net to Net Technologies
9.2.8 Occam Networks
9.2.9 Zhone Technologies
9.3 IPTV Set-top Box Manufacturer Profiles
9.3.1 Amino Communications, Ltd.
9.3.2 i3 micro
9.3.3 Kreatel Communications AB
9.3.4 Pace Micro Technology plc
9.4 IPTV Headend System Manufacturers
9.4.1 Envivio, Inc.
9.4.2 Minerva Networks
9.4.3 Optibase, Inc..
9.4.4 SkyStream Networks
9.4.5 Tandberg Television
9.4.6 Tut Systems
9.5 IPTV Video On Demand (VOD) Servers
9.5.1 Kasenna, Inc.
9.5.2 Movidis, Inc.
9.5.3 nCube Corporation
9.6 IPTV Video Middleware Providers
9.6.1 Microsoft Corp.
9.6.2 Myrio Corporation
9.6.3 Orca Interactive
Table of Figures
Figure 1-1: Global IPTV Subscriber Forecast
Figure 1-2: Global IPTV Subscriber Forecast
Figure 1-3: Global IPTV System Revenue
Figure 2-1: Comparing Satellite and Cable TV Services
Figure 3-1: Performance of ADSL2 vs. ADSL
Figure 3-2: ADSL2+ Can Double Maximum Downstream Data Rate
Figure 3-3: FTTP Physical Sub Networks
Figure 3-4: FTTP Network Architecture
Figure 3-5: FTTP Wavelength Allocation Plan
Figure 3-6: Full Build Deployment for FTTH
Figure 3-7: Example of FTTC Full Build Deployment
Figure 3-8: Service Overlay Architecture
Figure 3-9: Hybrid Architecture Employing FTTC and FTTH
Figure 3-10: Video Distribution Architecture
Figure 3-11: Insertion of Narrowcast Video Programming
Figure 3-12: Video Spectrum Allocation
Figure 3-13: Video Overlay
Figure 3-14: Simple SFU ONT Premises Network Interface
Figure 3-15: Complex SFU ONU Premises Network Interface
Figure 3-16: MDU ONT Premises Network Interface - Option 1
Figure 3-17: MDU ONT Premises Network Interface - Option 2
Figure 3-18: Functional Diagram of a Satellite Relay Feed
Figure 3-19: Fiber Home Gateway or Server
Figure 3-20: MPEG-4 Scene Using Multiple Objects and Elementary Streams
Figure 3-21: MPEG-4 Profiles and Levels
Figure 3-22: The Relationship of the Parts of MPEG-4
Figure 4-1: Breakeven Point for DSL-based IPTV Services
Figure 4-2: Breakeven Points for FTTP IPTV Deployments at 100% Penetration
Figure 4-3: Breakeven Points for FTTP IPTV Deployments Based on Penetration
Figure 4-4: FastWeb Broadband Subscribers
Figure 4-5: FastWeb IPTV Subscribers
Figure 4-6: FastWeb's Residential Broadband ARPU
Figure 4-7: FastWeb's Residential IPTV ARPU
Figure 6-1: Global DSL Subscriber Forecast
Figure 6-2: Global IPTV Subscriber Forecast
Figure 6-3: Global IPTV Revenue Forecast
Figure 6-4: Global IPTV System Revenue Forecast
Figure 6-5: Global IPTV Access Revenue Forecast
Figure 6-6 Global Forecast for IPTV Set-top Boxes
Figure 6-7: Global IPTV Revenue Forecast
Figure 6-8: Global IPTV VOD Server Forecast
Figure 6-9: Global IPTV Middleware Revenue Forecast
Figure 6-10: Asian DSL Subscriber Forecast
Figure 6-11: Asian IPTV Subscriber Forecast
Figure 6-12: IPTV System Revenue Forecast in Asia
Figure 6-13: DSL Subscriber Forecast for Asia
Figure 6-14: IPTV Subscriber Forecast for Europe
Figure 6-15: IPTV System Revenue Forecast for Europe
Figure 6-16: DSL Subscriber Forecast for North America
Figure 6-17: IPTV Subscriber Forecast for North America
Figure 6-18: IPTV System Revenue Forecast for North America
Figure 6-19: DSL Subscribers in the Rest of the World
Figure 6-20: IPTV Subscriber Forecast for the Rest of the World
Figure 6-21: IPTV System Revenue for the Rest of the World
Figure 9-1: FastWeb Broadband Subscribers
Figure 9-2: FastWeb IPTV Subscribers
Figure 9-3: FastWeb's Residential Broadband ARPU
Figure 9-4: FastWeb's Residential IPTV ARPU
Figure 9-5: MaLigne TV Network Architecture
Figure 9-6: SureWest's IPTV Network Architecture
Figure 9-7: AFC's IPTV Architecture
Figure 9-8: Calix C7 IPTV Architecture
Figure 9-9: Zhone Technologies' IPTV Architecture
Figure 9-10: Envivio's IPTV Architecture
Figure 9-11: Envivio's Middleware Architecture
Figure 9-12: SkyStream's Video Distribution Architecture
Figure 9-13: SkyStream's IPTV Distribution Architecture
Figure 9-14: Microsoft's IPTV Architecture
Table of Tables
Table 3-1: Summary of ONT/ONU Types
Table 3-2: Microsoft Codec Compression Comparaison
Table 3-3: Microsoft Windows Media 9 Encoder Options
Table 3-4: Microsoft Codec Licensing Comparison
Table 3-5: Microsoft Container Licensing
Table 4-1: Fiber Construction Projects
Table 5-1: Global IPTV Service Providers
Table 9-1: IPTV Service Provider Profiles
Table 9-2: All West Communications’ Digital Video Service Deployment
Table 9-3: All West Communications’ IPTV and DSL Packages
Table 9-4: All West Communications’ Digital video Partners
Table 9-5: BellSouth's Fiscal 2003 Financial Results (Normalized)
Table 9-6: BellSouth's Cable Competition (2002)
Table 9-7: Age of BellSouth's Lines
Table 9-8: Chibardun Telephone’s IPTV Services
Table 9-9: Chibardun Telephone’s Digital Video Service Packages
Table 9-10: Cyprus Telecommunications Authority's 2002 Financial Results
Table 9-11: miVision Monthly Pricing
Table 9-12: CYTA's Trial TV Channels Offered
Table 9-13: e.Biscom's Fiscal 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-14: FastWeb's IPTV Offerings
Table 9-15: France Telecom's Fiscal 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-16: France Telecom's IPTV Pricing
Table 9-17: TPS L Channel Lineup
Table 9-18: France Telecom's IPTV Technology Partners
Table 9-19: Iowa Network Services IPTV Technology Partners
Table 9-20: KDDI's Fiscal 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-21: KDDI Hikari Plus Service Fees
Table 9-22: Hikari Plus Net Technical Characteristics
Table 9-23: Hikari Plus Basic Channels
Table 9-24: Hikari Plus Serving Areas
Table 9-25: Kingston Communications' Fiscal 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-26: MTS’ Fiscal 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-27: MTS Communications IPTV Service Deployments
Table 9-28: MTS IPTV Coverage in Winnipeg
Table 9-29: MTS IPTV Theme Groups
Table 9-30: MTS IPTV Service Pricing
Table 9-31: MTS Triple Play Bundles
Table 9-32: PCCW's Fiscal 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-33: PCCW's NETVIGATOR ADSL services
Table 9-34: PCCW's Premium Channels
Table 9-35: Qwest's Fiscal 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-36: Cable Competition in Qwest's Territory
Table 9-37: Age of Access Lines in Qwest's Network
Table 9-38: Sasktel's Fiscal 2002 Financial Results
Table 9-39: Sasktel's IPTV Packages
Table 9-40: SBC's Fiscal 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-41: SBC's Cable Competition
Table 9-42: Age of Access Lines in SBC's Network
Table 9-43: Softbank's Fiscal 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-44: Softbank’s Installed Base – December 2004
Table 9-45: BB Cable TV Pricing
Table 9-46: Softbank's Channel Line Up
Table 9-47: SureWest's Fiscal 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-48: SureWest Communications’ Digital Video Service Deployment
Table 9-49: SureWest's Triple Play Bundles
Table 9-50: SureWest Communications’ Digital video Partners
Table 9-51: Verizon's Fiscal 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-52: Verizon Freeedom with DirecTV Package
Table 9-53: Cable Competition in Verizon's Territory
Table 9-54: Age of Access Lines in Verizon's Network
Table 9-55: IPTV Service Provider Profiles
Table 9-56: AFC's Fiscal 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-57: AFC's IPTV Products
Table 9-58: AFC's IPTV Deployments
Table 9-59: Alcatel's Fiscal 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-60: Alcatel's IPTV Products
Table 9-61: Alcatel's IPTV Deployments
Table 9-62: Alcatel's IPTV Technology Partners
Table 9-63: Allied Telesyn’s IPTV Products
Table 9-64: Allied Telesyn’s IPTV Deployments
Table 9-65: Allied Telesyn’s IPTV Technology Partners
Table 9-66: Calix’s IPTV Products
Table 9-67: Calix's IPTV Deployments
Table 9-68: Calix's IPTV Technology Partners
Table 9-69: ECI Telecom's Fiscal 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-70: ECI Telecom's IPTV Products
Table 9-71: ECI Telecom's IPTV Deployments
Table 9-72: ECI Telecom's IPTV Technology Partners
Table 9-73: Marconi's Calendar 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-74: Marconi's Current Assets as of December 31, 2003
Table 9-75: Marconi's Video Access Products
Table 9-76: Marconi’s IPTV Deployments
Table 9-77: Marconi's IPTV Technology Partners.
Table 9-78: Net to Net Technologies’ IPTV Products
Table 9-79: Net to Net's IPTV Deployments
Table 9-80: Net to Net's IPTV Technology Partners
Table 9-81: Occam Network's Fiscal 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-82: Occam Networks’ Video Products
Table 9-83: Occam Network's Video Deployments
Table 9-84: Occam Network's Video Technology Partners
Table 9-85: Zhone Technologies’ Fiscal 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-86: Zhone Technologies' IPTV Products
Table 9-87: Zhone's IPTV Technology Partners
Table 9-88: IPTV Service Provider Profiles
Table 9-89: Amino Communications' IPTV Products
Table 9-90: Amino Communications' IPTV Global Deployments (Feb ’04)
Table 9-91: Amino Communications' IPTV Deployments
Table 9-92: Amino Communications' IPTV Technology Partners
Table 9-93: i3 micro's IPTV Products
Table 9-94: i3 micro's IPTV Deployments
Table 9-95: i3 micro’s IPTV Technology Partners
Table 9-96: Kreatel’s IPTV Products
Table 9-97: Kreatel’s IPTV Deployments
Table 9-98: Kreatel's IPTV Technology Partners
Table 9-99: Pace Micro Technology's 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-100: Pace Micro Technology's IPTV Deployments
Table 9-101: Pace Micro Technology's IPTV Partners
Table 9-102: IPTV Service Provider Profiles
Table 9-103: Envivio's IPTV Products
Table 9-104: Minerva Networks Product Offerings
Table 9-105: Deployment of Minerva Network Systems
Table 9-106: Optibase's Fiscal 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-107: Optibase's IPTV Customers
Table 9-108: Optibase's IPTV Technology Partners
Table 9-109: SkyStream's IPTV Products
Table 9-110: SkyStream's IPTV Deployments
Table 9-111: SkyStream's IPTV Technology Partners
Table 9-112: Tandberg Television's Fiscal 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-113: Tandberg Television IPTV Products
Table 9-114: Tandberg Television's IPTV Customers
Table 9-115: Tandberg Television's Technology Partners
Table 9-116: Tut Systems' 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-117: Tut Systems 2003 Deployments
Table 9-118: Tut Systems’ IPTV Technology Partners
Table 9-119: IPTV Service Provider Profiles
Table 9-120: Kasenna's IPTV Products
Table 9-121: Kasenna's IPTV Systems
Table 9-122: Kasenna's Service Provider Deployments
Table 9-123: Movidis’ VOD Products
Table 9-124: Movidis' Technology Partners
Table 9-125: nCube’s IPTV Products
Table 9-126: nCube’s IPTV Deployments
Table 9-127: nCube’s IPTV Partners
Table 9-128: IPTV Service Provider Profiles
Table 9-129: Microsoft's Fiscal 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-130: Microsoft's IPTV Products
Table 9-131: Microsoft's Announced IPTV Trials
Table 9-132: Microsoft's IPTV Technology Partners
Table 9-133: Myrio's IPTV Products
Table 9-134: Myrio's IPTV Customers
Table 9-135: Myrio’s IPTV Technology Partners
Table 9-136: Orca Interactive's Fiscal 2003 Financial Results
Table 9-137: Orca Interactive’s IPTV Deployments
Table 9-138: Orca Interactive’s Technology Partnerships
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