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Paths to Wireline/Wireless Convergence Diverge
Yankee Group, The, Oct 2004, Pages: 23
The distinctive barriers between landline and wireless services are becoming blurred. In the United States, service providers such as Sprint have reorganized into two marketfacing organizations (consumer and business). AT&T has announced a wholesale MVNO agreement with Sprint to offer wireless services. Equipment vendors, including Alcatel, Ericsson, Nortel and Siemens, have reorganized under single entities for both wireline and wireless. In addition, Motorola is aggressively pursuing hybrid handset developments for converged service offerings.
Convergence is gaining momentum as wireline carriers struggle to counter substitution and displacement trends; wireless carriers continue to seek cost-effective means to maintain average revenue per user (ARPU); and vendors look for growth opportunities. However, the demand for converged consumer products and the underlying definition of convergence are still unclear.
In this report, we establish a framework for defining convergence and investigate the opportunities and threats it poses for fixed and mobile service providers. In particular, we investigate:
- The benefits of wireline/wireless convergence: Are they sufficient enough to
generate demand?
- The window of opportunity: As wireless pricing continues to decline and substitution continues to increase, the window for converged solutions narrows. Will substitution (and ultimately displacement) pre-empt the need for a converged solution?
- The capabilities of the technology and the vendors: Can vendors and service
providers come together to provide consumers sufficient device options at reasonable prices? In addition, what will the road map for convergence look like?
- The barriers to converged solution adoption: Can carriers resolve the conflict between moving between a one-to-one relationship (each cellular phone represents a specific individual) and a many-to-one relationship (wireline serves many people in the home)?
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