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Paths to Wireline/Wireless Convergence Diverge
Yankee Group, The, Oct 2004, Pages: 23
Wireless/wireline convergence is the latest over-hyped trend in the telecom industry. It’s being driven primarily by wireline carriers looking to recover from the effect of wireless displacement and substitution. In addition, select wireless carriers looking to reduce costs, improve quality and potentially differentiate their service offerings in a highly competitive and mature wireless market are fueling the trend. However, the market impact of convergence varies depending on whether it merely involves packaging (i.e., bundling); feature or product integration; or it is based on a seamless convergence that separates the service from the network.
Because convergence is still in its formative stages, it’s unclear whether it will gain market success or fail like earlier attempts in the last decade. The maturity of the wireless market, the commercial challenges of the fixed wireline carriers, and the pervasiveness of IP and local area wireless technologies like WLAN all work in favor of convergence. However, the services suffer from a lack of definition, minimal apparent market demand, technology integration challenges, incompatible organizational structures, regulatory constraints, inadequate supply of devices (in the case of seamless convergence) and the continued decline in the usage charges on mobile networks.
Carriers, service providers and vendors looking to capitalize on opportunities with converged solutions must focus on addressing the market segments that are likely to be the most receptive to converged solutions, such as business users and mobile professionals, select family segments and the youth market. Players must offer solutions targeted toward their specific needs and ensure that these solutions can be provided in a reliable, scalable and cost-effective fashion. The mass-market approach to convergence that is being developed by many service providers and vendors will not succeed.
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