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Optical Switching: A Competitive Analysis
CIR, Jan 2001
The market for optical switching and cross-connects is in a time of flux. A year ago, companies’ stocks were trading in the hundreds of dollars instead of the low tens and even single digit range, optical switching companies were boasting of customer orders (albeit some also happened to be shareholders), 'All Optical Networking' was just around the corner and VCs were pouring money into every start-up with even a semi-reasonable business plan. Lately, however, it seems that vendors, with the exception of a select few, are announcing badly missed revenue targets, declining orders, cancelled product lines and lay-offs. Service providers, meanwhile are said to be slowing Capex and marginal carriers are going out of business. Equity valuations have been hammered and the PR and Investor Relations departments are working overtime to explain what has gone wrong.
CIR believes that the market is obviously undergoing a fundamental correction but also, a reality check. The stock market’s melt down has had a negative affect on growth, capitalization and expansion. And, it is true that service providers are slowing expenditures on technologies but in a different way than some would have us believe. It is CIR’s opinion however, that the earnings warnings, lay-offs and product cancellations that we are seeing are both by-products of market correction and also in the choices and approaches to technology, execution and expectations by the vendors. Carriers are, in fact, continuing to buy and deploy technologies and there are some vendors who have met shipment targets, delivered deployable technologies and/or have met revenue targets.
So what is the truth about the market? Are we going to see All Optical Switch from anyone outside of Corvis any time soon? Are there vendors who have technologies and business cases that make sense? Does it make sense to invest in vendors of optical switching companies? Which vendors have the approach that carriers want? Which companies have the best chance of succeeding going forward? What is the technology that will provide the basis for optical switching over the next few years?
Communications Industry Researchers is pleased to present a new research report titled, Optical Switching Systems: A Competitive Analysis
that will provide its readers with a unique analysis of the optical switching and cross connect systems market offered for long-haul networks. The report provides both head-to-head and overall assessments of the competitive positions of various manufacturers along with very detailed feature and functionality comparisons between their products. In addition to the competitive assessments provided in the report, CIR will also include feedback from the service provider community of the strengths and weaknesses of the suppliers as well as our own unique and objective perspectives on each vendor’s ultimate chances for success.
This report provides: - Objective and reality based market projections in terms of ports and dollars on both O-e-o and O-O switches based on speed, size and market deployment. - A historical look at the evolution of cross-technology in order to give context to future expectations. - An appreciation for the critical need for bandwidth intelligence devices in the network. - Reasons for the domination of electrical fabrics in the foreseeable future. - Perspectives on the importance of Sts-1 granularity. - Background on the need for industry standardization on all-optical solutions. - Insights on the growing importance of the optical control plane. - Distinctions between core and edge products
As well as comprehensive comparisons and analyses of the vendors’ technologies, competitive positions and business cases. Included in the list of attributes targeted in the report that suppliers compete on are:
- Applications - Capacity/Scalability - Evolutionary tracks - Network management - Costs - Functional differentiators
Optical Switching Systems: A Competitive Analysis
is based on primary research conducted with service providers as well as with experts in optical switching technology both within systems and components manufacturers. The report is not vendor sponsored. The report is being prepared by Mark Lutkowitz, CIR’s Vice President of Optical Networking Research and Samuel Greenholtz, Senior Analyst for Optical Networking Research who together, possess over 45 years of technology, market and vendor analyses between them.
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