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3G Mobile Networks: Vendor Positioning and Deployment Strategies
Telecom Trends International (TTI), July 2003
The report provides an exhaustive analysis of network evolution to 2.5/3G.
It evaluates 2.5/3G mobile wireless technologies and standards and recomments strategies for upgrading from 2G to 3G networks cost effectively.
The report examines in detail offerings and deployments of each of the major vendors by region and provides their market shares by technologies.
The report provides five-year base station forecasts.
This report presents technology and market trends as operators upgrade their current Second Generation (2G) mobile wireless networks which are voice-centric, to the more feature-rich Second Generation Plus (2.5G) networks, followed by Third Generation (3G) networks capable of supporting advanced high-speed services.
The report highlights technology, market, and cost trends as operators migrate to next generation networks. It provides global and regional ranking of major infrastructure equipment vendors.
The report presents detailed technology and market positions of the top nine 3G infrastructure equipment vendors - Alcatel, Ericsson, Lucent Technologies, Motorola, NEC Corporation, Nokia, Nortel Networks, Samsung Electronics, and Siemens.
These vendors are ranked by their 3G technology positions, both globally and in the five reference regions - North America, Asia-Pacific, Cala (Caribbean Latin America), Europe-Russia and Africa-Middle East.
The analysis also examines global and regional technology trends based on the number of 3G contracts and the actual number of deployments or roll outs, resulting in commercially available 3G networks. The analysis reviews 2.5/3G mobile wireless technologies and standards as well as strategies for upgrading from 2G to 3G networks cost effectively. A 5-year forecast of 3G base station roll out is presented.
Overview of Report
3G mobile wireless is the next evolutionary step in mobile wireless networks. 3G networks will exploit the efficiency of packet switching to offer substantially enhanced capacity, quality, and data rates, all of which will enable the provision of advanced services seamlessly to the end-user.
Thus, 3G networks will replace the existing circuit-switched mode of 2G networks with all IP-based packet networks capable of efficiently and cost-effectively supporting real-time video, high-speed multimedia, and mobile Internet access. The two 3G technology standards that are being widely adopted by network operators are:
- Wcdma (Wideband Code Division Multiple Access). This technology was selected by Etsi in early 1998 as the European 3G standard for the evolution of GSM (initially a French acronym for Groupe Speciale Mobile, and subsequently, for Global System for Mobile Communications). Essentially, a Code Division Multiple Access (Cdma) solution was selected over a Time Division Multiple Access (Tdma) solution, even though GSM is based on Tdma, because Cdma is recognized to offer conceptually greater capacity than Tdma schemes. With Wcdma, users can expect to achieve data rates of up to 2Mbps.
- Cdma2000 (Code Division Multiple Access 2000). Supported by the CDG (Cdma Development Group), this technology is being adopted by operators currently running cdmaOne (IS-95A and IS-95B). Cdma2000 represents a series of technologies requiring 1.25MHz to 5MHz of spectrum for both forward and reverse links. The technology dramatically increases voice capacity. Speeds are expected to range from 130Kbps to 2.4Mbps depending on the technology deployed.
Wcdma, which is the basis of Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (Umts), is supported by the 3G Partnership Project (3GPP) and Cdma2000, is supported by the 3G Partnership Project 2 (3GPP2). Of the five air interface standards adopted by the ITU (International Telecommunications Union) for terrestrial (non-satellite based) services for the International Mobile Telecommunications - 2000 (Imt-2000) or 3G mobile wireless, Wcdma and Cdma2000 are the clear leaders.
The basic requirements for 3G systems are the support of voice, data, and multimedia services in indoor, handheld and mobile environments.
The specified transmission speeds for 3G mobile wireless are:
- 144Kbps at mobile or vehicular speeds
- 384Kbps at pedestrian speeds
- 2Mbps when stationary
Most incumbent network operators are currently overlaying existing 2G networks with next generation technologies.
- GSM to General Packet Radio Service (Gprs) to Enhanced Data-rates for Gprs Evolution (Edge), to eventual migration to Wcdma/Umts
- cdmaOne to Cdma2000 family of technologies
In examining the evolution of 2G technologies to 3G, the report explores the options for IS-136 Tdma operators. Tdma is a technology that has reached its limits with little evolutionary possibility, and IS-136 network operators are now faced with a choice of migrating their networks to either GSM/Gprs/Edge/Umts or cdmaOne/Cdma2000. The analysis discusses the pros and cons of evolving an IS-136 Tdma network towards GSM/Gprs/Edge/Umts or cdmaOne/Cdma2000. The implications are presented from the points of view of both the infrastructure and the handsets.
In addition, TTI presents an in-depth analysis of the top nine 3G infrastructure equipment vendors. TTI relies on the technology and market positions of each vendor to draw conclusions about the vendor’s overall standing from both technology and market perspectives. The report recommends strategies which infrastructure vendors can use to win business from operators.
Rolling out a 3G network is a complex undertaking and network operators need to understand not only the technology dynamics of 3G network deployments, but also the impact on network CapEx and Opex at different frequency bands - 800 MHz/900 MHz, 1800 MHz/1900 MHz and the 2.1-GHz Imt-2000 band.
This report reviews the cost implications of 3G deployment based on GSM/Gprs/Edge/Umts or cdmaOne/Cdma2000 migration/upgrade paths at the different frequency bands and recommends the strategies that network operators can adopt to minimize the cost of rolling out 3G networks.
Findings of the Study - The following are the major findings of the study:
- Globally, Wcdma/Umts has about 53% of deployments/contracts versus 47% for Cdma2000.
- Europe-Russia region has about 47% of the global 3G deployments/contracts, followed by the North America and Asia-Pacific region
- Cdma2000 networks have been rolling out faster worldwide than Wcdma/Umts networks.
- Ericsson is the leader in global 3G (Cdma2000 and Wcdma/Umts) market share, followed by Nortel Networks.
- When 2.5G technology Gprs and Edge deployments are included in the analysis, Ericsson increases its lead marginally but there is no change in the rankings.
- Lucent Technologies is the world leader in Cdma2000 technology followed closely followed by Nortel Networks
- Ericsson is the top Wcdma/Umts infrastructure vendor followed by Nokia and Siemens/NEC.
- In terms of regional market shares, Nortel Networks is the leader in North America and Africa/Middle East, Nokia is the leader in Asia-Pacific, Lucent is the leader in Caribbean and Latin America, Ericsson is the leader in Europe/Russia.
- The North America region has the highest number of Cdma2000 deployments/contracts, followed by the Asia-Pacific region.
- The Europe-Russia region has the highest number of Umts deployments/contracts, followed by the Asia-Pacific region.
- By 2007, base stations supporting 2.5/3G networks will number 1.8 million.
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