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Gigabit Ethernet Fiber & Copper Cabling Systems: 2005
FTM Consulting, March 2005
The structured cabling system industry has suffered a severe slowdown over the past five years. We were the first to project this downfall resulting from the onset of saturation of initial LAN network cabling. During the1990s, until 1999, the industry flourished with double-digit growth, as the initial network cabling was installed. This networking was primarily Cat 5 UTP copper cabling. In 1999, the onset of saturation caused the market to reverse and actually decline. Thereafter, until the present, the market has drifted with no or minimal growth. This flat, stable market situation has resulted in cabling industry consolidation of major cable suppliers, such as Belden with CDT and Avaya with CommScope.
The question that arises now from all the structured cabling system suppliers is, “If and when will the market recover?” We have been analyzing this market for the past 20 years and our recent research indicates that the market is poised for renewed growth in the next five years. The current market is primarily being driven by MACs (moves, adds, changes), new buildings or new applications. None of these provides sufficient impetus to grow the market at double digits as in the past. MACs require small amounts of cabling; office vacancy rates are high and are expected to remain high, precluding the need for new office buildings; and new applications rarely require upgrading the cabling. As a result, the market has stagnated at its pre-1999 levels.
However, in our most recent analysis we have uncovered a significant development that should reinvigorate the market. This development is the upgrading of the existing cabling to support new broadband applications. Most of this upgrade will be to Gigabit Ethernet (GbE), at bandwidths of 1 Gbps or higher.
In this recent study, “GbE Fiber & Copper Cabling Systems: 2005,” we have identified new applications, such as data centers with large server farms and other applications with similar broadband requirements needing to upgrade to speeds of at least 10 Gbps. We believe higher speeds, at or in excess of 10 Gbps, will become mandatory in the near future. Our analysis indicates that users need to upgrade their cabling plants to fiber cabling in order to support these new applications. Our study identifies the largest of these applications and the highest growth applications. For example, campus applications are expected to have the highest growth of 52.1% over the next five years, as it is a relatively unpenetrated application. Data centers are also a high growth application with a growth of 50.9% being projected. Market forecast details by application, by bandwidth and by cable type are all included in this new landmark study.
Included in the report:
- Data & analysis on the next growth market for structured cabling systems.
- Emerging applications added & analyzed: Data Centers, Wireless LANs.
- 5 year forecasts year-by-year from 2005 to 2010. Includes 2004 historical data.
- Cable & apparatus forecasted & analyzed separately: Cable Media, Cross Connects, Workstation Outlets.
- Forecasts for both value & volume (Cable Ft., Apparatus Ports/Panels)
- 6 individual applications forecasted & analyzed: Riser, Campus, FTTD, FTTZ, Data Centers & Wireless.
- Includes both Fiber & UTP Copper cabling forecasts
- Fiber cabling forecasts include Singlemode/Multimode segments & Legacy — SFF (Small Form Factor) fiber connectors
- UTP Copper cabling forecasts by Category (Cat 5e, Cat 6)
- All forecasts broken out by bandwidth: 1 Gbps, 10, Gbps, >10 Gbps
- Detailed analysis & assessment of UTP Copper support for 10 Gbps
- Future high-speed GbE networks beyond 10 Gbps to 40 Gbps and eventually 100 Gbps forecasted & analyzed
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