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Commercial Insight: HIV in the USA - Increasing Choice, Flexibility and Competition
Datamonitor, June 2003, Pages: 174

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Overview

Introduction

An analysis of the current commercial environment for HIV therapeutics in the US. Using multiple case studies, this report provides recommendations for current and future players in the HIV market.

MARKET SEGMENTATION & DEFINITION

Overview of the characteristics of the HIV market as well as therapeutic class definitions

What are the key advantages and disadvantages of each class of drug?

What is the gold standard drug and how is this compared to other drugs?

What are the associated pharmaceutical markets?

US MARKET ANALYSIS

This chapter provides a detailed analysis of the US market along with event screens for the top 10 selling antiretrovirals.

SWOT and drug forecast for the top 10 selling HIV drugs.
12-month event screens for the top 10 selling HIV drugs in the US.

LIFECYCLE AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

This chapter provides strategic portfolio analysis as well as lifecycle management strategies.

What are the current key launch strategies employed in the HIV market?
How can a company optimize peak sales?
What are the key patient targeting strategies and revenue protection strategies?

STRATEGIC PRODUCT POSITIONING

This chapter provides pricing strategies and the relationship between pricing and product positioning. Furthermore, the role of patient advocacy is discussed and physician targeting strategies.

What do companies need to do to justify setting prestige pricing points?
Can physician detailing be improved? How?
How much influence do patients have in drug prescription?
How does patient advocacy affect product positioning?

ACTION POINTS

Action point 1 – It is imperative for companies to focus on developing radical innovations rather than lifecycle management
Action point 2 – Physician detailing will become increasingly important moving forward. Key opinion leader favor will drive drug uptake
Action point 3 – Maximizing pre-launch drug awareness and patient dependence in pipeline is crucial to health drug uptake. Companies should seek to increase early access options.

APPENDIX

US product specific sales data by quarter and forecasts by year are provided.

DATASETS

Table 1: Forecast US sales for the top selling NNRTIs ($m), 2001 – 2011
Table 2: US Combivir sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011
Table 3: Gold standard comparison by indication and class, 2003
Table 4: US HIV drug sales ($m), 2001 – 2011
Table 5: Combivir: key facts
Table 6: US Combivir sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011
Table 7: Epivir: key facts
Table 8: US Epivir sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011
Table 9: Trizivir: key facts
Table 10: US Trizivir sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011
Table 11: Viread: key facts
Table 12: US Viread sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011
Table 13: Zerit: key facts
Table 14: US Zerit sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011
Table 15: Ziagen: key facts
Table 16: US Ziagen sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011
Table 17: Other NRTI drugs: key facts
Table 18: R&D included in NRTI forecast, 2003- 2011
Table 19: Sustiva: key facts
Table 20: US Sustiva sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011
Table 21: Viramune: key facts
Table 22: US Ziagen sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011
Table 23: Rescriptor: key facts
Table 24: R&D included in NNRTI forecast, 2003- 2011
Table 25: Kaletra: key facts
Table 26: US Kaletra sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011
Table 27: Viracept: key facts
Table 28: US Viracept sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011
Table 29: Other PI drugs: key facts
Table 30: R&D included in PI forecast, 2003- 2011
Table 31: Fuzeon: key facts
Table 32: Analyst estimates of Fuzeon sales, 2003 – 2004
Table 33: R&D in EI drug class
Table 34: Global pharmaceutical sales for HIV drug manufacturers, 2000 – 2002
Table 35: Global sales of infectious disease products for HIV drug manufacturers, 2000 – 2002
Table 36: Global HIV product sales for HIV drug manufacturers, 2000 - 2002
Table 37: Proportion of global pharmaceutical revenues generated by infectious disease franchises and HIV franchises, 2002
Table 38: Proportion of infectious disease revenues generated by HIV portfolio, 2002
Table 39: Comparison of global pharmaceutical, infectious disease and HIV CAGRs for HIV drug manufacturers, 2000 - 2002
Table 40: US pharmaceutical, infectious disease and HIV product sales for HIV drug manufacturers, 2002
Table 41: Comparison of sales share of global and US HIV markets for HIV drug manufacturers (%), 2002
Table 42: Global HIV market comparison to other infectious disease areas 2003 – 2010 ($m)
Table 43: Comparison of HIV market leader global revenue dynamics to peer products in other infectious disease areas ($m), 2002
Table 44: Criteria for determining therapy attractiveness
Table 45: HIV market leader portfolio composition, 2002
Table 46: Annual US prices for currently marketed antiretrovirals, 2003
Table 47: Cost comparison for commonly used HIV drug regimens in the US, 2003
Table 48: US sales data ($m) for the top 10 selling HIV drugs by quarter, 2001 – 2002
Table 49: Forecast US sales for the top selling NRTIs ($m), 2001 – 2011
Table 50: Forecast US sales for the top selling NNRTIs ($m), 2001 – 2011
Table 51: Forecast US sales for the top selling PIs ($m), 2001 – 2011

Figure 1: Therapeutic attractiveness matrix for selected infectious disease areas, 2003 – 2007
Figure 2: Timeline: the development of HIV therapy, 1987–2003
Figure 3: Top 10 drug contribution to market growth, 2001 – 2011
Figure 4: Key NRTI contribution to US market growth, 2001-2011
Figure 5: Key factors in the market dynamics of Combivir, 2003
Figure 6: Key factors in the market dynamics of Epivir, 2003
Figure 7: Key factors in the market dynamics of Trizivir, 2003
Figure 8: Key factors in the market dynamics of Viread, 2003
Figure 9: Key factors in the market dynamics of Zerit, 2003
Figure 10: Key factors in the market dynamics of Ziagen, 2003
Figure 11: Key factors in the market dynamics of Sustiva, 2003
Figure 12: Key factors in the market dynamics of Viramune, 2003
Figure 13: Key factors in the market dynamics of Kaletra, 2003
Figure 14: Key factors in the market dynamics of Viracept, 2003
Figure 15: Key factors in the market dynamics of Fuzeon, 2003
Figure 16: SWOT analysis of GSK’s portfolio strategy, 2003
Figure 17: GSK’s therapeutic strategy to 2007
Figure 18: SWOT analysis of BMS’s portfolio strategy, 2003
Figure 19: BMS’ therapeutic strategy to 2007
Figure 20: SWOT analysis of Abbott’s portfolio strategy, 2003
Figure 21: Comparison of average global company pharmaceutical, infectious disease and HIV product sales, 2000 - 2002
Figure 22: Comparison of US pharmaceutical, infectious disease and HIV sales dominance by rank, 2002
Figure 23: Comparison of sales share of the global and US HIV markets by HIV drug manufacturer, 2002
Figure 24: Global HIV market comparison to other infectious disease areas 2003 – 2010 ($m)
Figure 25: Therapeutic attractiveness matrix for selected infectious disease areas, 2003 – 2007
Figure 26: Global sales of Retrovir, 1987 – 2002
Figure 27: Retrovir’s global sales lifecycle characteristics, 1987 – 2002
Figure 28: Global sales lifecycle curves for GSK’s antiretrovirals, 1987 – 2002
Figure 29: Kaletra positioning summary, 2001
Figure 30: Kaletra pre-launch strategy, 1996 – 2000
Figure 31: Kaletra positioning strategy
Figure 32: Comparison of US Kaletra and Trizivir sales growth, 2000 – 2002
Figure 33: Comparison of US Sustiva and Ziagen sales growth, 2000 – 2002
Figure 34: Combivir and Trizivir uptake analysis 2003
Figure 35: Sales of Kaletra and Viracept following Kaletra launch, 2000 - 2002
Figure 36: Viread and Zerit US sales by quarter preceding and following Viread launch, 2000 – 2002
Figure 37: Lifecycle of a drug, and the potential effect of reformulation
Figure 38: Factors affecting company intervention in issues of public interest, 2003
Figure 39: Methodology for calculating average annual drug cost
Figure 40: Comparison of average vs. total cost for key combination regimens used in the US, 2003
Figure 41: Comparison of price points charged by GSK and BMS for their HIV portfolios in the US, 2003
Figure 42: Comparison of Trizivir and Combivir pricing in the US, 2003
Figure 43: AAHIVM segmentation of HIV-treating physicians by specialty, 2003
Figure 44: Patient segmentation by treating physicians
Figure 45: Strategies involved in physician detailing
Figure 46: Maximizing promotional effectiveness
Figure 47: Viread patient product positioning
Figure 48: Pre and post-launch strategies for the HIV industry, 2003


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