|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Beyond Cellular - The Evolved Wireless Cocktail
ARCchart, Jan 2005, Pages: 130
As the mobile industry starts the mass roll-out of 3G, it is prescient to ask: where does the mobile industry go from here? Incredibly, the mobile services market has grown to 1.4 billion users worldwide and revenues of $500 billion with little deviation from the classic mobile operator business model which has existed since commercial cellular services started in the late 1980's.
However, wireless technologies are in the market today and on the imminent horizon which offer superior speeds to wide area cellular technologies and are completely IP-based. This threatens to disrupt the conventional cellular service model, and in the process shift the competitive positioning of mobile operators worldwide.
Over the coming years, step changes in the wireless industry will not be characterised by a serial overlay of evolved cellular technologies, such as the move from 2G to 2.5G and now 3G. Instead, it will be marked by the addition of evermore advanced wireless standards to a mixture of local, metro and wide area wireless technologies. These wireless technologies will consist of Wi-Fi and Ultra Wide Band (UWB) in the local area; broadband wireless access technologies like WiMAX, UMTS-TDD and Flash-OFDM in the metro area; and 3G cellular technologies like CDMA 1xEV-DO, W-CDMA and HSDPA in the wide area. This is set to create the 'wireless cocktail', a mix of multiple wireless standards combined into a single service platform for the consumer.
This report examines the range of new wireless communication technologies scheduled for deployment between 2004 and 2008. We analyse the technology characteristics, the forces driving supply, demand and deployment into the global market, and the factors affecting convergence of these technologies at a device and service level.
Fundamental to this thesis is the demand that users will exhibit for this wireless mix - not for the new networks themselves, but for the high-speed internet access which they provide whilst away from a fixed connection, and the applications and services which can take advantage of this. In particular, we see the rising demand for VoIP and mobile VoIP as perhaps the single largest factor which will continue to drive demand for wireless broadband internet access, not just in the home and enterprise, but more importantly in the metro and wide area.
The heterogeneous nature of the wireless cocktail means that users will move in and out of the coverage areas of different wireless networks, with each of these supporting different internet connection speeds. Users who are more mobile will be exposed to a greater fluctuation in wireless access speeds. We define three user groups exhibiting varying levels of mobility, from sedate to highly mobile, and find that there is considerable difference in their average wireless access speeds. This is set to become an important metric for consideration by wireless application developers and service providers.
In many ways, Wi-Fi has been the prototype new wireless technology. It has been successful as a home and SME networking technology, and is increasingly being adopted by the enterprise. However, its history as a public high-speed broadband service platform has been less of a success. We detail the lessons of the WLAN hotspot experience, from the difficulties created by having a complicated value chain, to the need for roaming and consistent access and authentication systems. We do however believe that the Wi-Fi hotspot industry is approaching a tipping point and we discuss its prospects for integration with cellular networks.
The 500Mbps plus speeds theoretically achievable over UWB has sparked the imagination of the industry. However, the emerging wireless technology continues to make headlines primarily because of the industry infighting hindering the formation of an IEEE UWB standard. This report examines the realistic potential of this technology and the timetables for UWB semiconductor availability and we analyse the impact of the now very probable introduction of two rival and incompatible UWB standards into the market, due to conflict between the MBOA and the UWB Forum. We find that, as well as having applications as a wireless successor to USB and the physical layer of the next generation of personal area networking technologies, such as Bluetooth, it will also be driven out into the WLAN market by its attractive range and bandwidth potential. UWB may become the basis for the next generation of WLAN standards, providing concentrations of very high-speed internet access, subject to the limitations of the backhaul capacity available.
Over the past 12 months, the market noise has been particularly deafening in the case of the new broadband wireless access standard, WiMAX. There have been some wild claims made of the potential disruptive effects of WiMAX on the cellular industry, driven by misconceptions over the standard's technical capability, and confusion over realistic timelines for network deployments and chipset availability. The report provides clarity on WiMAX's technical ability and the likely timelines for network deployment, along with a discussion of the companies likely to be offering WiMAX services. We also examine the potential of the home-grown Korean BWA standard, WiBro, and the political needling retarding the development of 802.20.
We divide WiMAX into its two distinct value propositions, fixed and mobile. We are sceptical of WiMAX's ability to compete with DSL in its fixed configuration, and highlight the work needed before the 802.16 standard can support mobility. We compare this to the current status of rival BWA technologies, UMTS-TDD and Flash-OFDM, and find that this does not reflect favourably on WiMAX. UMTS-TDD and Flash-OFDM are available in the market today as fully mobile BWA technologies, and are seeing operational and trial deployments, not least by tier one cellular operators such as T-Mobile and Vodafone. WiMAX's future is far from assured and we outline four possible scenarios for the future endgame of the mobile BWA industry - of which only two have WiMAX present in the market.
The keystone to the level of disruption of the wireless cocktail on the cellular industry will be their level of integration into the mobile handset. Today, Wi-Fi has seen widespread integration into PDAs and notebooks, but their impact on the revenues generated by the mobile industry is negligible. The mobile handset however is the
shop front, cash till, and delivery system for the mobile operators.
The report analyses the factors influencing integration of the new wireless technologies into the mobile handset, including: Intel's aggressive support for both Wi-Fi and WiMAX, with handset integration of these technologies as its ultimate endgame; demand for mobile data and VoIP; a supply-side influence from semiconductor and handset manufacturers looking for avenues for product differentiation; new market entrant service provider demand; and the potential retarding influence of the mobile operators who will resists handset integration for fear of cannibalising their cellular voice and data revenues. Using an adjusted bill of materials model, we forecast that by 2009, 19 million handsets will ship with integrated Wi-Fi, versus 3 million in 2005.
The evolution of the wireless cocktail, and the penetration of the new wireless technologies deeper and deeper in the mobile handset pyramid, will affect the entire wireless value chain, from the operators to infrastructure vendors to semiconductor manufacturers, to the relationship between the IEEE and the 3GPP. We provide an analysis of the competitive positioning within each segment in light of the changed dynamics of the wireless market. With regards to the operators, we conclude that, while the new wireless technologies will proliferate wireless VoIP, driving down the costs of circuit-switched voice, and therefore eroding margins for cellular operators, these operators are in the strongest position to internalise the converged cocktail by leveraging their existing cellular networks, mobility brands and customer relationships. They will however face increased competition from wireless ISPs and fixed-line operators that successfully leverage themselves into the mobile market by means of these new wireless networks.
Customers who bought this item also bought
3G, Wi-Fi, WiMAX and Others Battle for Wireless Supremacy
Broadband Wireless Systems (WiMAX) Market Opportunities, Strategies, and Forecasts, 2007 to 2013
Broadband Wireless Access - Potential for Mobile WiMAX & Alternative BWA Technologies
UMD Connectivity: Add 3G Cellular, WiMAX, or Punt
Seamless Mobility: The Marriage of 3G and Wi-Fi
Positioning WiMAX - How WiMax Stands Up To DSL, Cable, Wi-Fi and 3G
WiMAX: Technology for Broadband Wireless Access
Mobile WiMAX, xMax and 3G LTE - Analysis of Mobile Broadband Technologies
The Definitive Guide to the Broadband Wireless Industry: WiMax, WiFi and 4G Cellular
Wi-Fi Hotspot Use in China: Shifting From Business to Entertainment
Worldwide Demand for Wi-Fi/Cellular Combo Phones
The New Wireless Road Warrior: How Business Travelers Are Shaking Up the Telecoms Industry - from Wi-Fi to 3G
|
|
|
|
