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Beyond Cellular - The Evolved Wireless Cocktail
ARCchart, Jan 2005, Pages: 130
1. Introduction
1.1 New insight, new analysis
1.2 Report overview
2. A brief history of cellular
2.1 Steps to mobility
2.2 Prerequisites of growth
2.2.1 Technology standardisation
2.2.2 Spectrum licensing
2.2.3 Imperfect outcomes
2.3 Snapshot of today's cellular technology
2.3.1 Surviving analog systems
NMT
AMPS
TACS
2.3.2 GSM
HSCSD
2.3.3 The GSM migration to 3G
GPRS – 2.5G
EDGE
W-CDMA
2.3.4 CDMA
2.3.5 The CDMA migration path to 3G
CDMA2000 1X
CDMA2000 1xEV-DO
CDMA2000 1xEV-DV
CDMA2000 deployment
2.3.6 Market-specific variations
TDMA
PDC
2.4 Demand for cellular
2.5 3G
2.5.1 What does 3G mean?
Regulatory bodies and standards
Technology platforms
2.5.2 Customer perception of 3G
2.5.3 Roll-out status and history to date
Japan
South Korea
Hutchison 3G
Roll-out timetables across Europe
2.5.4 Analysis of the 3G license bubble
2.5.5 Eating into the 3G lifecycle - Catch 22
Too much bubble
Catch 22
A less than ideal outcome
3. The new wireless generation
3.1 Demand
3.1.1 Demand for connectivity
Fixed broadband
Wi-Fi and hotspots
3.1.2 Applications and services
Voice
Voice over IP
3.1.3 Devices
Notebook PC and PDA
The Handset
3.2 Limitations of cellular
3.2.1 Capacity and speed limitations of cellular
3.3 The new wireless cocktail
Range versus bandwidth
3.3.1 The cocktail ingredients
Local area
Metro area
Wide area
3.4 Factors driving the cocktail
3.4.1 IP-based3.4.2 License-free spectrum
3.5 Developments necessary for the cocktail to take shape
3.5.1 Device integration
Stitching the networks
3.5.2 The importance of mobility
4. Local area wireless
4.1 Wi-Fi
4.1.1 What is Wi-Fi?
802.11b
802.11a
802.11g
802.11n
4.1.2 Hotspots
The hotspot industry
4.1.3 Lessons from the Wi-Fi hotspot experience
Demand and access devices
Value-chain complexity
Leveraging billing relationships and brands
4.1.4 The future for Wi-Fi hotspot services
Free Wi-Fi
4.2 UWB
4.2.1 What is UWB?
UWB key technical characteristics
4.2.2 Application profiles
Cable replacement
Wireless networking
4.2.3 UWB's major speed bump: MBOA vs. UWB Forum
Creating the problem
Divided they stand
4.2.4 Summary
5. Metro Area Wireless
5.1 WiMAX
5.1.1 What is WiMAX?
Developing the standard
802.16
802.16a
802.16-2004, 802.16 c, and REVd
802.16e
5.1.2 The WiMAX value propositions
5.1.3 The fixed BWA value proposition
CPE and WiMAX as a DSL competitor
DSL reality check
5.1.4 The WiMAX mobile value proposition
5.1.5 Industry support
Established carriers and new market entrants
Established entrants
New market entrants
5.1.6 Timelines
5.1.7 Hurdles to WiMAX achieving market traction
Signal propagation issues
Commercial restrictions in the 5GHz band
Spectrum profiles
Alternative mobile BWA technologies
5.2 Alternative mobile BWA technologies
5.2.1 MobileFi - 802.20
The standard
Vulnerability to territorial defence
Sharp practice at the IEEE
Vendor exodus: moving to WiMAX or de facto standardisation
Outlook
5.2.2 Flarion and Flash OFDM
The technology
The Flarion Alliance
Deployments and trials
Outlook
5.2.3 IP Wireless and UMTS TDD
The technology
UMTS TDD Alliance
UMTS TDD handsets
Outlook
5.2.4 WiBro
The standard
Outlook
5.3 Summary
6. Wide Area Wireless (Cellular)
6.1 3.5G cellular
6.1.1 HSDPA
Technical characteristics
Accelerated time to market
NTT DoCoMo and HSDPA
Compatibility of CDMA2000 EV-DV and W-CDMA
6.1.2 HSUPA
Progress and timescales
6.2 4G Cellular
6.2.1 The ITU definition of 4G cellular
6.2.2 Technology
NTT DoCoMo's 4G trials
6.2.3 Asian 4G cellular collaboration
7. The Evolved Wireless Cocktail
7.1.1 Description of concepts
Bandwidth
Range
Connectivity defined
7.2 2004
Wide area
Metro area
Local area
Future outlook
7.3 2005
Wide area
Metro area
Local area
7.4 2006
Wide area
Metro area
Local area
Future outlook
2007
Wide area
Metro area
Local area
Future outlook
7.5 2008
Wide area
Metro area
Local area
Outlook
7.6 Bandwidth analysis
7.6.1 Average per user bandwidth
7.7 Summary
8. Stitching the Networks
8.1 Inter-network integration challenges
8.1.1 A further lesson from the Wi-Fi hotspot experience - roaming
8.1.2 A technical standard for inter-network handoff - Unlicensed Mobile Access
BT and Bluephone
8.1.3 Roaming clients
PCTEL
Microsoft
9. Handset Integration
9.1 Connected portable devices
9.1.1 The mobile handset
The 'vanilla' phone
The feature phone
The smartphone
The handset supply chain
9.2 Drivers for handset integration
9.2.1 VoIP
Consumers
Enterprise
9.3 Integration of the new wireless technologies
9.3.1 Local area – Wi-Fi
9.3.2 Metro area – mBWA
9.3.3 Non-cellular handsets
9.4 Supply-side push towards handset integration
9.4.1 Component suppliers
Lessons from the Wi-Fi market
9.4.2 Handset vendors
Catering to the enterprise
9.4.3 Service providers
9.5 Resistance to handset integration
9.5.1 Mobile operators
9.6 Integration forecast
9.6.1 Methodology
Handset BOM forecast
Wi-Fi and WiMAX chipset forecast
Demand
9.6.2 Results
Wi-Fi integration
mBWA integration
10. Implications for new and existing industry players
10.1 The wireless services providers
10.1.1 Wi-Fi
10.1.2 BWA
10.1.3 SWOT analysis
10.2 Equipment vendors
10.2.1 The network infrastructure market
SWOT analysis
10.2.2 Semiconductor manufacturers
SWOT analysis
10.3 Standards bodies
11. Intel
11.1 Intel and Wi-Fi
11.1.1 Centrino and the hotspot
11.2 Intel and WiMAX
11.3 What's in it for Intel?
11.4 Checking the form
I. Appendix
List of Figures
Figure 1 - Typical layout of the cellular industry value-chain
Figure 2 - GSM subscribers worldwide, Q2 2004
Figure 3 - CDMA subscribers worldwide
Figure 4 - 3G license costs per capita
Figure 5 - Interest in wireless broadband services
Figure 6 - Applications driving demand for wireless internet access
Figure 7 - Applications driving demand for handset internet access
Figure 8 - Schematic of the evolved wireless cocktail
Figure 9 - The disintegrated hotspot value-chain model
Figure 10 – Global hotspot growth: 2002 - 2007
Figure 11 - The benefits of 802.16 standardisation for equipment manufacturers
Figure 12- Global BWA equipment revenue forecast, demonstrating expected impact of WiMAX in 2005
Figure 13 - UMTS TDD evolution roadmap
Figure 14 - Wireless cocktail topography: 2004
Figure 15 - Wireless cocktail topography: 2005
Figure 16 - Wireless cocktail topography: 2006
Figure 17 - Wireless cocktail topography: 2007
Figure 18 - Wireless cocktail topography: 2008
Figure 19 - Wireless internet bandwidth usage of a moderately mobile user: 2007
Figure 20 - Average observed user bandwidth forecast: 2004 - 2009
Figure 21 - The UMA system topography
Figure 22 - Mobile wireless services market size: 2000 to 2005e
Figure 23 - Forecast of the mobile handset market by device type: 2004 to 2008
Figure 24 - The handset value-chain
Figure 25 - Breakdown of the mobile handset pyramid by device type: 2004
Figure 26 - Handset BOM forecast by device type: 2004 to 2008
Figure 27 - Worldwide installed base of WLAN access points: 2004 - 2009
Figure 28 - Integrated Wi-Fi handset forecast: 2005 - 2009
Figure 29 - Wireless service provider path to full product offering
Figure 30 - Wireless service provider SWOT analysis
Figure 31 - Wireless infrastructure vendor SWOT analysis
Figure 32 - Wireless semiconductor maker SWOT analysis
Figure 33 – Standards organisation SWOT analysis
Figure 34 - WLAN chipset market shares: 2003
List of Tables
Table 1 - Summary of cellular network technology parameters
Table 2 - CDMA EV-DO network investments and commitments
Table 3 - The Japanese 3G market, Q3 2004
Table 4 - 3's global 3G operations
Table 5 - The Wi-Fi technology standards
Table 6 - Examples of location-specific hotspot service models
Table 7 - Leading hotspot operators
Table 8 - Comparison of conventional and UWB radio transmission
Table 9 - Spectral efficiency of WiMAX and Wi-Fi compared
Table 10 - The 802.16 standards
Table 11- Fixed and mobile operator members of the WiMAX forum
Table 12 - New market entrant and niche operator membership of the WiMAX Forum
Table 13 - Intel's WiMAX timeline
Table 14 - Adjusted market WiMAX timeline
Table 15 - Alternative BWA equipment vendors
Table 16 - Members of Flarion's Flash-OFDM Alliance
Table 17 – Flarion contract wins
Table 18 – TDD spectrum allocations in Europe; mainly 5MHz-wide allocations
Table 19 - UMTS TDD Alliance members
Table 20 – Evolution of observed end-user bandwidth for typical deployments
Table 21 – Coverage area for typical deployments of the wireless technologies
Table 22 - Definition of sedate, average and mobile users
Table 23 - Members of the Unlicensed Mobile Access Consortium
Table 24 - Characteristics of the mobile handset, the notebook PC, and the PDA
Table 25 - Wi-Fi and WiMAX handset chipset pricing: 2004 - 2008
Table 26 - Intel's WiMAX investments
Table 27 - 3G networks in Europe, status and launch dates
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