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DC-DC Global Forecasts, Technology Trends & Competitive Environment, Eighth Edition
Darnell Group, Feb 2005, Pages: 364
The fundamental purpose of this research study is to provide the information and analysis necessary to make strategic decisions about the sales potential and future demand characteristics for board-mounted dc-dc converter modules. Modules differ from discretes in that a module is a complete dc-dc converter solution that is mounted onto its own printed circuit board, while discrete solutions are mounted directly to the system printed circuit board. The market for dc-dc converters can be segmented in a number of ways: by application, by wattage, by input and output voltage, by amperage, by product type, and so on. The dc-dc converter market addressed in this report includes both high-wattage industrial power supplies down to point-of-load dc-dc converters. This study is designed to help companies improve their current market understanding, as well as anticipate and plan for future trends. In addition to determining the potential market size and growth, this report identifies current low-voltage powering trends. Profiles of the key competitors in the dc-dc converter market are also included in this study.
Many trends are providing opportunities for dc-dc module makers. From an application point of view, the Computer segment in North America and the Communications segment in Asia are providing the greatest opportunities. From an architectural point of view, the faster-than-expected adoption of the intermediate bus architecture is driving sales of non-isolated pointof-load converters (POLs) and bus converters, which are two of the fastest-growing dc-dc converter segments. Additionally, the trend towards lower operating voltages, higher current levels and higher wattages are providing growth possibilities in a number of key areas. Overall, these trends provide the punch needed to lift the dc-dc converter module market from nearly $3.3 billion in 2005 to $5.4 billion in 2010. This translates to annualized growth of 10.5%.
While this implies that the dc-dc converter market has the ability to maintain strong growth for the next five years, this market is also faced with a number of threats. On the low end of the power and amperage levels, discrete solutions are eroding the module market. The greatest evidence of this is the Portable application segment. In recent editions of this report, Portable accounted for a sizeable share of sales, but it is no longer included because of incursion by discretes. While this reduces the available market, it allows this report to more clearly focus on the trends driving the traditional module markets—Communications, Computers, Industrial and so on. Additionally, the business climate is also providing a number of challenges. Several recent alliances, partnerships and acquisitions will continue to change the face of the dc-dc converter market. Several companies, such as C&D Technologies, have been able to gain
substantial market share, while others have not been as fortunate.
The move to digital power control and conversion may provide great opportunities for some, while clearly providing a threat to others. This emerging and disruptive technology may have a
very large say in how market share turns out in the somewhat near future. The ability to digitally configure output voltages, set voltage sequencing, the ability to monitor the dc-dc converter and so on not only offers technological advantages, but more importantly, economic advantages. Power-One claims that implementation of their digital solution can cut average development time from eight weeks to three days. Given the increasing importance of time-to-market and the costs associated with development, this benefit is significant.
Applications and regional differences between applications segments are providing for a
diverse array of opportunities. The broad Computer segment now accounts for a greater share of
dc-dc sales worldwide than the Communications segment. While this is clearly true in North
America, Asia and Central and Latin America are still heavily weighted towards Communications. However, both segments have growth opportunities. The fastest-growing subsegment in either group is the Server market. Particularly in North America, the emergence of blade servers, which frequently employ either the distributed power architecture or the intermediate bus architecture, are driving sales of bus converters, POLs and voltage regulator
modules. Along a similar line, Communications equipment based on the Advanced Telecom Computing Architecture (ATCA) is driving demand for products such as Artesyn's 'Ultra' 200W quarter-brick, which was designed for implementation into ATCA equipment. Voiceover-Internet Protocol and the corresponding usage of Power-over-Ethernet will provide significant opportunities, as well. However, many of these opportunities replace existing markets. For instance, the growing converter market for blade servers is eroding the established market for enterprise servers.
The venerable brick form factor is also expected to see a number of changes. Today halfbricks
still hold the largest share of unit sales, but throughout the five-year period studied, quarter- and eighth-bricks are expected to hold the top share for at least some period of time. Only full and sixteenth-bricks are expected to remain as relative niche markets.
The largest individual threat for dc-dc converter makers is the continued commoditization of converters. This places increasing price pressures and pushes volumes to the absolute lowestcost supplier. Many of the standardization attempts in this market may have just that effect. Prices are projected to decline at a rate 4.5% per year and that includes a trend towards higher power and higher current levels. It would not be at all surprising to see average price-per-Watt of isolated converters fall below $0.20 by the end of the forecast. High volume and commoditized VRMs are frequently priced well below $0.10-per-Watt.
To quantitatively and qualitatively address the dynamics in this market, a number of forecasts
and discussions are provided. Forecasts are first divided into eight wattage segments to deliver greater granularity in the forecasts. The fastest-growing wattage segments are the higher wattage segments, with 100W-249W segment growing the fastest because of voltage regulator module shifts. That said, average pricing is coming down fastest in the higher-wattage segments because of the type of applications that are moving in. Detailed dollar, unit and average selling price forecasts for 2005 to 2010 are also provided for Input Voltages, Output Voltages, Product Type (Isolated, Non-isolated and VRM), and Application (Computer, Communications, Industrial and Military/Aerospace). Furthermore, the Computer and Communications segments are further broken down into a total of ten sub-segments. Revenue forecasts are provided for six different amperage ranges and standard- and custom-designed converters. Each of these seven categories of forecasts are given for five regions: Worldwide, North America, Europe, Asia and Central and Latin America.
A detailed competitive analysis chapter augments the total available market forecasts. Estimates of the top dc-dc converter companies worldwide have been expanded from the top-five to the top-ten. Moreover, market share data is complimented with estimated sales data for each of these ten companies. In the last edition of this report, Tyco was estimated to have the top market share, but now the company's position has slipped. Moreover, each of the previous top have found a different position. There have been regional changes as well. Delta Electronics has gained share in Europe following the acquisition of Ascom Energy Systems. This chapter also provides discussion related to the mergers, acquisitions and alliances that have formed since the last update of this report. Important differences between the Point-of-Load Alliance (POLA) and the Distributed-power Open Standards Alliance (DOSA) are pointed out and the impact these alliances are discussed. Both alliances claim to be open, but only one allows nonmembers to produce their standard products. The competitive environment culminates with profiles of the leading 40 dc-dc converter manufacturers.
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