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Trends in Power Distribution: Global Market Forecasts, Power System Architectures and Demand Characteristics, Fourth Edition
Darnell Group, Nov 2003, Pages: 301
The Fourth Edition of this in-depth analysis of Trends in Power Distribution is the single most important analysis of the power supply industry published in 2003. It details the rapid evolving trends in distributed power architectures (DPAs) and will provide valuable insights unavailable from any other source. The DPAs market has grown in sophistication and complexity with new variants such as spot powering, hot swapping and the Intermediate Bus Architecture (IBA) gaining prominence alongside traditional DPAs. This report is a must read for every one interest in the market for dc-dc converters or ac-dc front ends.
Demands for both ac-dc power supplies ('front end') and dc-dc converters, is evolving rapidly in response to changes in demand. This report includes extensive data from questionnaires completed by power systems designers at Major system OEMs. The questionnaire results quantify several important trends including: demand for specific products features, shifting demand patterns between captive and merchant production, market sizes for specific DPA topologies such as IBA, spot power and so on.
One of the most important aspects of this report is the detailed analysis of the trends in demand for specific product features such as isolation levels, input voltage ranges, the use of semi-regulated, so-called bus converters in IBAs, demand for various wattages, numbers of voltages expected to be employed on a 'typical' PCB, hot-plugging for ac-dc and dc-dc, and so on. This report provides detailed geographic forecasts for Asia, Europe and North America. Finally a comprehensive analysis of the leading competitors is included.
Definition
The market for power electronics can be segmented in a number of ways: by application area, by wattage, by captive versus merchant production, by standard versus custom designs, and so on. As a result of the changing electronics technologies at both a component and system level, the market for dc/dc converters and ac-dc power supplies is expected to grow at a healthy rate over the next five years. At the same time, power system architectures are evolving at a relatively quick pace in response to demands for increased system reliability, pressures to reduce system costs and the rapid proliferation of low-voltage IC technologies. As a result of these complex factors, the markets for ac/dc power supplies and dc/dc converters are expected to undergo dramatic changes over the forecast period.
This study determines and defines the changing market opportunities for ac/dc power supplies and dc/dc converters as a result of trends in power distribution projected between 2003 and 2008. This study focuses specifically on the merchant segment of the market, with implications for the captive segment. In addition to looking at the technological aspects of this market, the report determines desired product features including the use of power factor correction, performance specifications, distribution bus voltage levels, time-to-market considerations, current standards, the use of internal battery back-up versus conventional uninterruptible power supplies, as well as the importance of numerous additional product features.
Topics Covered include:
- Distributed Power Architectures: Characteristics, Drivers And Trends
- Worldwide Market Forecasts (Units, Dollars And Pricing Trends)
- North America Market Forecasts (Units, Dollars And Pricing Trends)
- Europe Market Forecasts (Units, Dollars And Pricing Trends)
- Asia Market Forecasts (Units, Dollars And Pricing Trends)
- Demand Characteristics Survey Results
- Competitive Analysis
Scope
This research report identifies market opportunities and develops market penetration strategies for ac/dc power supplies and dc/dc converters for the following DPA market segments: Communications, Computer, Industrial, Medical and Military/Aerospace. In addition, the market is analyzed for the use of various types of distributed power architectures (DPAs), such as Centralized, Spot Power and Intermediate Bus Architecture. The report includes:
(1) Five-year dollar, unit and pricing forecasts covering the period 2003 to 2008 for ac/dc power supplies and dc/dc converters, specifically for those units employed in distributed power architectures.
(2) Identification of the key characteristics of each market segment.
(3) Determination of market entry requirements, including product features and specifications, anticipated dollar sales growth rates, continuing trends to distributed power architectures, demand for power factor correction, battery back-up and other key system features, and key opportunities (window of opportunity).
(4) An analysis of the competitive environment for products used in distributed power architectures, including business models and product offerings.
In addition, this research program covers the following general areas:
(1) Estimates of how the Worldwide, North America, Europe and Asia consumption of ac/dc power supplies and dc/dc converters will be changed by shifts in the underlying system power architectures.
(2) Determination of the perceived needs of each market niche and the factors critical to the successful penetration of them.
(3) Development of strategies to be used in the penetration of the market for distributed power architectures.
Finally, this study tests and quantifies a variety of hypotheses including:
(1) Dc-dc converter manufacturers have not provided the solutions OEM system designers need, so other competitors (such as semiconductor manufacturers) have come up with tools that allow customers to design their own converters ('inboard converters') into the system.
(2) Increased use of inboard converters could increase the Captive market for nonisolated dc-dc converters in DPAs, decreasing the Merchant market share.
(3) Designers of distributed power systems feel that improvements in time-to-market are more important than reductions in unit price.
(4) The use of DPAs is growing most rapidly in the Communications market segment and among designers of so-called 'modular systems.'
(5) The adoption of distributed power architectures is driving the use of built-in battery back-up capability in all types of electronic equipment.
(6) Meeting the CBEMA power quality standards is critical to success in the distributed power market.
(7) Harmonic standards and limitations are more important than power factor correction to designers of distributed power systems.
(8) Most designers of distributed power systems have separate down time goals for the complete system and for the power sub-system.
(9) Entry-Level system cost is more important than Fully-Configured system cost for designers of modular power systems.
Methodology
Primary and secondary research were conducted of the major users/specifiers of dc-dc converters and ac-dc front end power supplies, as well as producers of advanced-technology ICs serving the targeted markets and of major makers of dc-dc converters and ac-dc front ends. The majority of data were obtained as a result of primary research and interviews. Background information was obtained through secondary research. Annual forecasts are given for each year between 2003 and 2008.
The detailed methodology proceeded as follows:
(1) A questionnaire was jointly developed by the author's and 'sponsors' of the Trends in Power Distribution study. We posted this questionnaire on their website and 'qualified' the respondents as OEM system engineers and engineering managers involved in the design and implementation of power systems.
(2) After the initial responses were received, follow-up telephone interviews were conducted with individuals determined to be knowledgeable about distributed power architectures. Those interviewed were selected from both respondents to the questionnaire and non-respondents. The statistics obtained as a result of the initial questionnaire were used as a guideline for the telephone interviews. A preliminary statistical report of questionnaire responses was used to determine if any 'course corrections' were needed for the phone interviews. As a result of that preliminary analysis, several questions were slightly re-worded to obtain higher-quality information from respondents. During the phone interviews, a check list was used to make sure that no points were overlooked.
(3) Secondary research was performed as a supplement, using non-proprietary, previously performed work by the author's, trade journals and previous industry studies.
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