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3G in China What's Next for China's 3G Licensing?
Pyramid Research, Inc., July 2005, Pages: 16
What’s next for China’s 3G licensing? The country’s smorgasbord of mobile standards and political support for the home-grown but unproven TD-SCDMA have long combined to delay a closely watched 3G licensing process. With trials for TD-SCDMA technology reportedly failing, China’s path to mobile next generation services has become even blurrier, with major implications for the future of market’s four largest carriers, as well as infrastructure suppliers seeking to capitalize on 3G investment. This report analyzes 3G licensing scenarios for the Chinese market, examining each scenario’s implication for market share, mobile data adoption and overall market development. The report will review the following salient points:
- What are the possible and likely 3G licensing scenarios for the Chinese market?
- What are the likely consolidation scenarios for the Chinese market?
- Who holds the cards for the ultimate licensing decision? What is the framework of the decision-making process?
- What lessons can one draw from the shuffle of executive management at the top of China’s main carriers?
- Can TD-SCDMA survive?
- What does 3G licensing mean for the future of PHS?
- Will China Unicom survive as one entity?
- Which licenses will fixed carriers Netcom and China Telecom ultimately receive?
- What are our subscriber and revenue forecasts for the ultimate licensing scenario?
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