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Retail VoIP in Western Europe: Forecasts 2005-2010
Analysys Mason Group, Sep 2005

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Introduction
The development of retail VoIP in Europe

Taxonomy of VoIP
Three business models for mass-market VoIP

Snapshot of retail VoIP
VoIP subscribers
Usage patterns
Skype
Private VoIP applications
Pricing

Barriers and drivers of retail VoIP
Broadband
Cable
POTS
Carrier-internal VoIP
Incumbents
Naked DSL

Individual markets
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom

Forecasts

Author, acknowledgements and disclaimer

Figures and Tables

Figure 1
Call and payment flow for typical voice sold with access VoIP

Figure 2
Call and payment flow for typical voice sold without access

Figure 3
Call and payment flow for typical DIY VoIP

Figure 4
Skype downloads, worldwide registered users and estimated active users to June 2005

Figure 5
Skype minutes of use per registered user and active user, October 2004–June2005

Figure 6
Simultaneous users of Skype, September 2003–June 2005

Figure 7
Skype penetration as a percentage of broadband subscribers

Figure 8
Skype usage as percentage of all fixed calls, first quarter 2005

Figure 9
Total fixed voice minutes, first quarter 2005

Figure 10
Factors shaping retail VoIP business plans

Figure 11
Difference in price between Tele2 POTS and leading national VoIP provider

Figure 12
Incumbent share of national fixed-to-fixed minutes, fourth quarter 2003–fourth quarter 2004

Figure 13
Broadband penetration rates in Europe, 2005–2010

Figure 14
Broadband market share by access type

Figure 15
Unbundled lines and broadband connections other than cable or DSL as a percentage of all broadband connections

Figure 16
Cable-modem markets in Europe by retail VoIP addressable markets

Figure 17
Subscribers of ISPs using incumbent DSL by country in Europe

Figure 18
Retail VoIP pricing pressures

Figure 19
Average spend per minute on traditional fixed voice versus the percentage of calls originating on the fixed network

Figure 20
Carrier-internal VoIP implementation phases

Figure 21
Options for mainstream fixed operators faced with the threat of retail VoIP

Figure 22
Incumbents exposure to fixed–mobile substitution according to non-incumbent access

Figure 23
Key assumptions and inputs for retail VoIP in Western Europe forecasts

Figure 24
Subscribers and active users of retail VoIP services, Western Europe, 2005–2010

Figure 25
Residential subscribers to paid-for retail VoIP services in larger Western European markets, 2005–2010

Figure 26
Residential subscribers to paid-for retail VoIP services in smaller Western European markets, 2005–2010

Figure 27
Total spend on residential and small business retail VoIP services in Western Europe, 2005–2010

Figure 28
Retail residential VoIP minutes as percentage of residential fixed voice minutes, total residential voice minutes, 2010

Figure 29
Small business subscribers to paid-for retail VoIP services in larger Western European markets, 2005–2010

Table 1
Average usage for residential telephone line, selected Western European markets, fourth quarter 2004

Table 2
Key factors for VoIP penetration of residential broadband subscribers

Table 3
Key factors for VoIP penetration of small business broadband subscribers



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