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Ontario's Energy Crunch: Why Phasing Out Coal Is An Unwise Strategy
Peter R. Savage Reports, Feb 2005, Pages: 90
The Ontario Government's resolve to phase out coal-fired electricity generation in the province by end-2007 is virtually certain to prove disastrous in economic terms, yet at the same time yield no significant environmental or health benefits.
- It will lead to an 'energy gap' of around 4000 MW that can only be bridged with expensive importation of electricity from the US or other provinces
- Removing 25% of Ontario's power generating base requires replacement of that capacity with power from either refurbished nuclear plants, new gas-fired combined cycle plants, or renewables
- Natural gas prices have been highly cyclical in the past half-decade, and are now headed higher because of a growing severe supply-demand imbalance throughout North America. This problem is not transitory, but a lasting structural one, caused by finite resources
- Ontario would thus be repeating the mistake of US utilities, who over-invested in 'cheap, clean' natural gas-fired capacity in the 1990s and are now reeling from the effects of higher prices
- Studies show that natural gas has waned in economic competitiveness compared with coal (or nuclear) power over the past three years
- The effect of the phase-out will be sharply higher electricity costs in Ontario, at least 30% above today's levels, resulting in hardship for consumers and acting as a major disincentive to new business investment. Recent economic studies calculate that over 100,000 jobs may be at risk, and the effects will be lasting
- Recent world trends support the continued burning of coal, which is cheap, plentiful, and can be supplied from domestic resources, allowing secure generation rather than reliance on imports such as LNG from politically unstable regions
- The idea that coal is 'dirty' is a myth. Clean coal technology exists, and the environmental performance of existing Ontario Power Generation plants can be greatly improved by further modest investments in proven clean-up technology that will cut sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, particulates and mercury emissions
- The health risks of smog have been unfairly attributed to coal-fired generation sources: more than 50% of Ontario's air pollution is transborder pollution. Transportation sources are also a very significant source
- Despite endless repetition, the health risks claimed by Ontario Medical Association and others are not proven correct, and are based on selectively chosen evidence. There is well-founded doubt about whether Ontarians will see any measurable health benefit from the closure of the coal plants. It's fundamentally poor science.
- Renewable energy – particularly in the form of wind power – is a praiseworthy choice as a supplement to established generating methods. It is intermittent, and unsuited to more than a minor to modest role in the electricity supply picture
All of these conclusions are fully substantiated by extensive expert analysis. The phase-out makes very little sense. Why, then, does the Ontario government stubbornly persist with its impractical scheme?
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