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New Projects of Hydrocarbon Production and Export in Russia: Risks and Opportunities
National Energy Security Fund , Oct 2005, Pages: 60
Since 1999 oil and gas production has been increasing in Russia boosting the country's gross domestic product, budget surplus, and profits of oil companies. At the same time neither the state nor oil companies have been rushing to invest in new projects of hydrocarbons production and export. That has resulted in export infrastructure overloading and oil and gas production stagnation. Today's high world oil prices make the situation even worse. With unprecedented high oil prices Russia and its partners could raise high profits. Instead, they failed to be prepared to take advantage of the favorable situation on the market.
It is struggle for oil and gas assets repartition between key political groupings that everybody's attention has turned to. As a result, all efforts are concentrated on supporting large-scale merges and acquisitions. Besides, companies are afraid of losing investments in case of failing to win in political fights and they initially are unwilling to invest in green-field projects for they realize that in case they fail there is a possibility that all assets will be expelled and investments will be lost. Finally, it is hard to decide right now who will finally become a geopolitical partner of Russian political-nomenclature groupings. It is obvious that Russian resources are not enough to meet the hydrocarbon need of both East and West. Due to this fact Russia has to prioritize export and production projects as well as choose the right partner among foreign companies.
Highlights:
- Overview of general problems of Russian hydrocarbons production and export: Major threats and obstacles to Russian duel and energy industry development – oil production decrease, scarcity of transport infrastructure, lack of prudential taxation system. Prospects of different political groupings on key issues.
- Russia between West and East: Geopolitical alignment of Russian elites. American-European and Indian-Chinese partners of Russia.
- New projects of Russian hydrocarbons production and export to Europe: Obstacle to oil and gas transit through the Ukraine, Byelorussia, Baltic States, and the New Europe countries. North-European gas pipeline: can it really be an alternative to traditional export routes.
- New projects of Russian hydrocarbons production and export to the United States: Prospects of Shtokman project. Opportunities for oil export to the United States.
- New projects of Russian hydrocarbons production and export to the Asia-Pacific countries. Prospects for the Eastern Siberia development. Sakhalin projects, Eastern pipeline: key lobbyists and 'saboteurs'.
- Forecast for Russian hydrocarbons export in mid-term perspective. Possible actions of major oil and gas players depending on different scenarios of the industry mid-term development.
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