During the first presidential term of Vladimir Putin new elite groups have significantly consolidated their influence and realized the first stage of assets redistribution. During the second term they try to implement large-scale projects that have been planned for a long time and which can change the Russian oil industry.
There are a lot of serious M&A projects being planned, which will be lobbied by the nomenclature-political groups interested in having control over the most profitable sector of the Russian economy. The fact that a lot of lobbyists of large private corporations have left the political scene sustains this observation as well as YUKOS affair and struggle around Gazprom and Rosneft merging.
The Russian oil industry is facing a new and second phase of its development. Putin's team is becoming more and more aggressive trying to dominate in the oil and gas market. The 'new' elite are looking for optimal ways to control the sector. However, there are different members in the President team with conflicting interests.. At the same time a winner will have resources enough to implement the main plan – devolution of power in 2008.
The report analyses the following:
- Major players in the Russian oil complex and their positions. Who is creating a new oil map? Strategic plans of the major nomenclature-political groups; level of their control over the main oil companies. Positions of Vladimir Putin and Mikhail Fradkov.
- Foreign companies and struggle for oil sovereignty. Problems and prospects of Western concerns working in the Russian oil and gas industry. Politics of the Ministry of Natural Resources: new underground resources law and attempts to renew the Product Sharing Agreement. Will new players come to the Russian market – Chinese or Indian companies? The struggle between supporters for independent oil and gas sector, groups supporting Western companies and parts supporting Eastern companies. Will Russian become an arena of struggle between Western and Eastern corporations for subsurface resources?
- Struggle around the creation of an integrated oil and gas corporation. Rosneft 'finishing up' with YUKOS's assets and prospects of its merging with Gazprom. Possible oil assets to be acquainted by Gazprom.
- Pipelines war. Traditional and potential markets for Russian oil export, competition between Western and Eastern transit, Baikal Pipeline System, and other prospective routes.
- Russian oil and gas complex development scenarios. What will be the outcome of the political struggles for oil assets and how will it impact the industry. What future are existing large-scale players facing?
