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Children's Publishing Market Assessment 2005
Key Note Publications Ltd, Aug 2005
More adults than children buy children's books; adults buy books for their own children, for other people's children and for themselves. Sometimes the adults may be accompanied by children — in which case the child has a say in the type of book bought, but often, especially when the books are bought as presents, the choice is made according to the adults' own taste. The adults who buy the beautifully illustrated children's classics are known in the trade as the `graunty' buyers (grandmothers and aunties but the phrase obviously also includes grandfathers and uncles). This group is specifically targeted with lavishly printed illustrated books produced in time for the Christmas gift market. However, the `graunties' may be forced to limit their own indulgences and be guided into buying books that children actually want instead; booksellers are reducing the number of picture books they stock in order to focus on those that sell best — and children no longer enjoy the books graunties enjoyed when they were young.
Most books are bought from one of the main bookselling chains, but the bookselling industry is unusual in that most towns boast one or two independent booksellers operating alongside the likes of Waterstone's, Borders or WH Smith. This makes the industry fairly fragmented: publishers have to ensure that their distribution lines encompass the entire marketplace.
They also need to ensure that their books are well marketed. Many purchasing decisions are made in-store — customers may have a specific book in mind when shopping, but they can be tempted by other titles, especially when offered money-saving `three for two' promotions. In-store promotion and outward-facing book covers are, therefore, an important part of the sales process and this is causing booksellers to rethink their strategies in terms of the inventory they hold.
It is estimated that the UK market for children's books was worth £672m in 2004 — an increase of 5.1% over 2003. However, the value of the children's picture book market (which includes drawing and colouring books) declined by 20% in 2004 and this is predicted to lead to a continuing decline — we estimated a decline of a further 20% in 2005 over 2004. Booksellers are concerned that this market is oversupplied and that picture books simply do not sell in the UK in the same way that they do in the US and in Europe. As a consequence, they are stocking fewer picture books — this will lead to a reduction in the number published. This market will reside with just a few popular authors and illustrators, such as the Julia Donaldson/Axel Scheffler combination (Gruffalo books), who will continue to sell well.
Publishers can capitalise on these `cash cows' through rights sales, but they will always be seeking the next Jacqueline Wilson or long-term sellers, such as Maurice Sendak's Where The Wild Things Are or Eric Carle's The Very Hungry Caterpillar.
The children's book market (including school books) represents more than 20% of the total book market, which makes it an important market in its own right. All of the major publishers have several children's imprints and there are numerous independent publishers specialising in children's books.
Children's booksellers enjoy another distribution channel through schools. By encouraging parents and children to buy books through school book fairs and branded bookclubs, publishers and booksellers can offer large discounts to teachers to provide books for the classroom, thereby incentivising them to provide schools as an important sales channel.
However, exclusive research conducted for this report — and research conducted by MORI on behalf of Nestlé for its 2003 Family Monitor study — shows that young people are less inclined to read, or to encourage children to read, than older respondents.
What is emerging is that those children who are less inclined to read are resistant to such encouragement; they would read more if the books interested them and if they were recommended by their friends, rather than by parents or teachers.
The UK is somewhere between France and Belgium in the way books are bought for children. The situation in France is very conservative, with parents tending to buy the kind of books that they enjoyed for their children. In Belgium, however, it is the children who dictate which books their parents should buy for them — in much the same way as they decide which clothes they want to wear.
Publishers have a fine line to tread. While needing to cater to children's changing taste, and to provide books that booksellers can actually sell, they need also to encourage good writing and to encourage new authors to provide the most vibrant and diversified children's book range — and to unearth the next Harry Potter.
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