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Results of the State Regulation in the Fuel & Energy Complex in 2005 and the Outlook for 2006
National Energy Security Fund , Dec 2005
2005 was rich with events in the branch. Establishment of Rosneftegaz with the following transition of Rosneft and some of Gazprom shares to it, the acquisition of Sibneft by Gazprom, the escalation of the struggle for the eastern subsurface, the stormy discussions around the Subsurface Law, the beginning of the asset exchange between the gas monopoly and the foreign companies. We see that mergers and takeovers in the O&G field are happening very fast. The main catalyst of this process is the preparation of the Russian political groupings to the election in 2008. The control over the oil and gas assets seems to be the key to success. All this makes the elites use the power institutions to revise the rules of the game in the fuel & energy complex and the new redistribution of property.
The new report has the following themes:
General economic results of the year for the branch. The growth of the oil prices is stimulating the profits of the companies but they do not invest into new projects – the players use the major resources to achieve political goals.
Fortification of the state's controlling functions over the companies in the fuel & energy complex. The distribution of resources and observation of the mining rules, transport routes and the taxation discipline of the mining companies appeared to be under rapt attention of the state officials. The political groupings are struggling for the controlling functions of the state to use them to intensify their positions.
The growth of the elite groupings' influence inside the oil & gas companies. Expansion of the state O&G assets. Gazprom and Rosneft – the two centers of force in the field.
Investment and taxation policy of the state. The fiscal innovations. The problem of the gas tariffs. The laws that specify the conditions of work in the field for the foreign investors.
The problems of energy resources export and pipeline transport. The struggle of the elites for the influence inside the complex is spreading to the transport companies as well: Transneft, Transnefteprodukt, Russian Railways, tanker fleet.
Prospects of the Russian fuel & energy complex in 2006. The next year promises to be not less interesting for the Russian F&E complex. The elites will continue dividing the spheres of influence, completing the redistribution of the oil & gas market, the legislation of the O&G will be innovated. Not much time remains until the election in 2008, so the political groupings have to wind up their projects.
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