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Scenarios for the Evolution of the Wireless Industry in Europe to 2010 and Beyond
Analysys Mason Group, Feb 2006
Organisations in the wireless industry are faced with several uncertainties that could have a significant impact upon the competitive and technological landscape over the next five to ten years. These include:
- customer demand for 3G services
- service mix and pricing
- fixed–mobile substitution
- fixed–mobile convergence
- wireless infrastructure developments (including Super 3G/LTE, DVB-H, WiMAX and 4G).
- handset and terminal design
- competition, regulation, industry structure and value chain organisation
This report defines and examines three different, yet plausible, scenarios for the evolution of the wireless industry in Europe, in order to assess the implications of these uncertainties for existing and new industry players. The report forecasts ARPU and wireless network usage for each scenario, assessing the impact on network investment. It also considers the implications for the wireless industry value chain as new services and new players emerge. The report provides invaluable support to organisations developing business plans and testing their strategies over the medium- to long-term.
Scenarios for the Evolution of the Wireless Industry in Europe to 2010 and Beyond answers your key questions:
- Amid many current uncertainties, how could the wireless industry realistically change over the next five to ten years?
- How will different outcomes affect organisations within the industry?
- What are the early warning signs of each future scenario?
- What actions can organisations take to steer the industry in the most favourable direction and to mitigate the risk of other outcomes?
Who should read this report?
Mobile operators: executives and business managers in corporate strategy, product and service development, R&D and public policy can observe the impact of different scenarios on industry structure, service ARPU and usage, identify the key factors in determining which direction the industry takes and plan their business strategy accordingly
Wireless infrastructure vendors: executives and product managers in corporate strategy, R&D, sales and marketing can ascertain the factors that will drive increased (or decreased) infrastructure sales, identify the key technologies of the future and map the industry value chain of the future
Wireless handset vendors: executives and product managers in corporate strategy, R&D, sales and marketing can gain insights into industry variables that will influence wireless service and wireless technology requirements in mobile devices over the next five to ten years
IT hardware and services: corporate strategy, R&D and product management personnel in technology component vendors (such as CPU designers, hard drive and flash memory manufacturers) who act as suppliers to the wireless industry can plan product roadmaps and test capacity planning assumptions based on the report's scenarios and forecasts. Integration services can assess the extent to which industry and/or technological fragmentation will impact long-term business plans in the wireless industry
Media outlets, content providers and broadcasters: corporate planners, CIOs and technologists can assess how new services (such as mobile TV and broadband) may impact the wireless value chain and industry landscape, in order to plan their long-term business strategy
Regulators: this report will assist regulators' understanding of the potential changes in the wireless industry value chain caused by fixed–mobile substitution or convergence, the emergence of new players in the industry and the implications for licensing of new technologies (such as WiMAX and DVB-H)
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