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Tdma Carriers in Latin America Have Many Technology Paths for Cellular Migration
Yankee Group, The, Jan 2003
South America, As more Latin American wireless operators announce plans to scale back their capex for the coming year, infrastructure vendors are betting on 2.5G and 3G network upgrades to bring in business.Although new network build is practically non-existent,and even coverage expansion has slowed,operators are still looking to migrate their networks from 2G to next-generation architectures that enhance not only functionality and services,but also cost savings and capacity. In contrast to cdmaOne and GSM,which have predefined evolutionary paths,Tdma is the only major standard not tied to a single migration path.Tdma networks can migrate to either of the existing technological families:Cdma2000 and GSM/Gprs. Tdma is the most widely used standard in Latin America,with roughly 51 million subscribers across 42 networks.As Exhibit 1 shows,only 17 of these 42 networks have definite migration paths,with 11 migrating to GSM/Gprs and 6 migrating to Cdma2000.Twenty-five Tdma carriers in Latin America still have not decided on a migration path (as compared to 16 cdmaOne and 8 GSM networks).Therefore,the most attractive market for infrastructure vendors consists of Tdma carriers that have not yet decided their future direction. This promising market is the reason that vendors are involved in an active lobbying effort,the goal of which is to convince mobile carriers of the advantages of their respective technological proposals. In this report,the Yankee Group explores the migration landscape for Tdma carriers in Latin America. Among the main conclusions and recommendations:there is no best-for-all path.The decision varies for each and depends on a number of factors ranging from network topology and spectrum assignation to much less sophisticated issues,such as parent-company preferences and vendor incumbencies.
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